An Efficacy Analysis for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Screening of Different Screening Intervals

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of different screening intervals on screening for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). METHODS: A Markov model was constructed, based on the natural history of NPC. The 5-year mortality rate of NPC was the major measurement to evaluate the efficacies of 16 screening strategies. Parameters for the model were derived from published literature. RESULTS: Screening reduced the 5-year mortality rate for NPC by 20.4 – 43.3%, compared with the equivalent rate without screening. The 5-year mortality rate and the NPC pick-up rate with strategy A1 (annual screening) were 23.6% and 83.9%, respectively. Compared with strategy A1, strategy B1 (annual screening for seropositive subjects; biennial screening for seronegative subjects) had a similar 5-year mortality rate (24.0%) and a slightly smaller NPC pick-up rate (81.7%), but led to a 39.3% reduction in total screenings. Compared with all other strategies excluding strategy A1, strategy B1 achieved the lowest 5-year mortality rate and the largest NPC pick-up rate. CONCLUSIONS: Strategy B1 had the highest efficacy for NPC screening.