Navigating the Pandemic: Insights into Food Security From Oman’s Experience

Abstract

This study examines the influence of COVID-19 and climate change on food security in Oman using econometric methods. Time series data from 1990 to 2022 encompassing variables such as carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂), real GDP per capita (RGDPc), inflation rate (INF), and a pre/post-coronavirus dummy variable (DUMV) are analyzed. The dependent variable, FOOD_Impit, serves as a food security proxy, with data sourced from the World Development Indicators and Global Food Security Index databases. The study employs Johansen cointegration, canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), fully modified least squares (FMOLS), to investigate the effect of COVID-19 on food security in Oman. Johansen and CCR cointegration tests confirm a long-term cointegrating relationship among the variables in Oman, indicating their relevance to food security. However, the analysis reveals that while climate change, represented by CO₂ levels, significantly and adversely impacts food security in Oman, the effects of COVID-19, real GDP per capita, and inflation rate are statistically insignificant. In conclusion, this research provides valuable insights into the dynamics of food security and supply chains in Oman. It highlights the severe impact of climate change on food security and advocates for urgent policy reforms. Specifically, it recommends that policymakers focus on enhancing climate resilience within the food sector and invest in boosting domestic food production to reduce import dependency. The study also calls for further research to address potential omitted variables and refine the understanding of food security determinants in Oman, ensuring more robust policy formulation and implementation.

JEL classification: F11, F15, F04