A Comparison of Estimates of the Prevalence of Heavy Drinkers in Local Regions of Queensland

Abstract

Objective: This study developed and compared separate estimates of the number of heavy drinkers (the in-need population for alcohol treatment interventions) across eight local regions in Queensland.

Method: Estimates were based on: (i) a self-report population survey of alcohol consumption; and (ii) an application of the Ledermann log-normal distribution of consumption model to liquor sale figures.

Results: Estimates based on the 1989–1990 National Health Survey (NHS) data indicated that 10.98% (n = 83 880) of adult male drinkers and 1.25% (n = 6581) of adult female drinkers in Queensland (total = 90 461) were on average drinking the equivalent of six or more standard drinks a day in the week prior to the survey (4.74% of Queensland adult drinkers, n = 90,461). Estimates based on the Ledermann model indicated that 12.18% of adult Queensland drinkers (n = 232,283) were drinking six or more standard drinks a day. Estimates based on the Ledermann model were 157% larger than estimates based on NHS data (i.e. a difference of 141 821 heavy drinkers), with large variations in the two estimates across local regions.

Conclusion: The NHS data appears to underestimate the population of heavy drinkers, whereas the Ledermann model overestimates it. In this situation, it seems preferable to use the more conservative self-report survey estimates.