Abstract
Much has been made of the global expansion of nuclear power. While experts discuss the pros and cons, countries are moving forward with their plans to build new plants. Of all the energy technologies available, why nuclear?
Perspectives from the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt and Thailand
The oil crises of the 1970s were seen by many as a blessing for the industrialized world, raising awareness of the dangers of relying on energy imports. Yet the era's potential lessons were forgotten as the return of cheap fossil fuels laid the groundwork for decades of relative prosperity. Instead of building on the alternative energy debates and conservation measures of that time, the developed world economies grew more dependent on fossil fuels than ever before.
Today, the industrialized world (now a much larger club) is in the throes of another shock, with oil and natural gas prices through the roof. And this time a return to the ample supplies of the past seems unlikely. Beyond the high prices, fears of climate change are pushing the United States and the world at large to look seriously at alternative energy and electricity sources for the first time in more than 30 years. The issues today, although similar to those of the 1970s, are more complex. Solar and wind technologies are advancing and hold great promise, but are not yet competitive with conventional energy sources. Early crop-based biofuels have revealed the dangers of diverting food to fill energy needs. And demand for electricity and fossil fuel from rising powers such as China and India is only increasing.
Waiting in the wings is the often-maligned nuclear industry, which could not have planned a better environment for renewed interest. Promising a ready, proven technology that can produce electricity whether the sun shines or the wind blows, nuclear is redefining itself as 21st-century green energy. Politicians are talking up nuclear, and many who had written off the industry are taking a second look. Outside the United States, China is rapidly expanding its nuclear capacity; India hopes to do the same. In the Americas, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa, officials are preparing to build new nuclear plants. Why after so many years of stagnation is nuclear seeing a comeback? Of all the energy technologies that nations could invest in, why go nuclear?
To answer these questions, the Bulletin invited governments around the world that have expressed interest in building new nuclear plants to explain, in real terms, what nuclear power means for their economies and their people.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Minister of foreign affairs for the United arab Emirates
On March 23, 2008, the cabinet of ministers of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially endorsed a policy document entitled, “The Policy of the United Arab Emirates on the Evaluation and Potential Development of Peaceful Nuclear Energy.” This policy, which was developed by the UAE government, in consultation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the governments of major nuclear supplier nations, laid out a set of principles, commitments, and strategies that will guide the assessment and potential implementation of a peaceful nuclear energy program within the UAE.
The government of the United Arab Emirates has been gratified by the positive reception that the UAE policy has received, and I believe that such broad international support is a reflection of the thoughtful and responsible manner in which the UAE is approaching this sensitive issue. Nevertheless, it's hard to ignore a discernable trend among some commentators, who although acknowledging the progressive thinking embodied in the UAE policy, continue to ascribe the UAE's interest in nuclear energy to simple technological one-upmanship. Such commentary is wrong and fails to acknowledge either the inherent advantages of nuclear energy or the impact of the policy commitments undertaken by the government of the UAE.
In reality, the UAE's sole interest in nuclear energy is to generate electricity to support its growing and increasingly diverse economy. The UAE continues to enjoy real annual GDP growth rates in excess of 10 percent, as well as an ever-expanding non-oil and gas contribution estimated at more than 66 percent of GDP in 2007. Studies carried out by UAE government entities project that this pace of economic development will result in a tripling of electricity demand by 2020, requiring the installation of more than 30,000 megawatts of new generation capacity. Keeping pace with this demand represents a challenge that requires consideration of every viable option.
Nuclear energy represents a proven, economically competitive, and environmentally promising method for producing electricity. In assessing its options for meeting future electricity demand, the UAE evaluated a comprehensive list of options in addition to nuclear energy, including natural gas-fired power plants, crude oil-fired power plants, and coal-fired power plants, as well as alternative and renewable technologies such as waste-to-energy, solar, and wind. Head-to-head comparisons between these technologies demonstrated the benefits of nuclear energy as a cost-competitive and environmentally friendly form of base-load power generation.
In addition to being virtually free from carbon emissions, nuclear energy was found to be a low-cost alternative to traditional fossil fuel-based options, cheaper than both natural gas and coal, and vastly outperforming crude oil and diesel fuel at current world market prices. Understandably, some parties, observing the abundant crude oil reserves held by the UAE, have suggested that it should simply burn crude oil to generate needed electricity. While such a course is technically feasible, it would result in a dramatic loss of export revenue for the UAE, as well as a proportionate reduction in the amount of crude oil it could supply to the global economy. Importantly for the UAE, nuclear energy also provides a means to address chronic domestic natural gas shortages that have challenged UAE utilities in recent years. Finally, the low variable cost of nuclear energy represents a valuable tool in countering the risk of price volatility inherent in use of fossil fuel-based technologies.
While it is possible to demonstrate cost advantages of nuclear energy over current alternative and renewable energy technologies, the reality is that these technologies do not compete for the same role, owing to the fact that the latter are not base-load technologies. Indeed, the more interesting conclusion arising from UAE analysis is the degree to which these technologies can complement each other in reducing the overall emissions of the country's electricity sector, underlining the fact that the UAE's future energy portfolio is likely to feature fossil fuel, nuclear, alternative, and renewable technologies, as well as focus on demand-side management to increase efficiency.
Importantly, beyond practical energy considerations, the UAE also views its potential adoption of peaceful nuclear energy as an opportunity to drive positive change at the international level. By developing a model for the deployment of nuclear energy that is based on the highest standards of operational transparency, safety, security, and nonproliferation, as well as the principles of long-term sustainability and cooperation with the IAEA and responsible nuclear supplier states, the UAE hopes to chart a new path via which the benefits of nuclear energy may be safely made available to an expanding list of countries. The UAE's commitment to forego domestic enrichment and reprocessing is a key component of its model and is further enhanced by full transparency and cooperation, including the formation of an international advisory board and the favoring of financial arrangements that allow for foreign ownership and operatorship within the country's nuclear energy sector.
Ultimately, the UAE is not trying to simply replicate an existing nuclear program from another state within its borders but is attempting to take an evolutionary step forward in developing a peaceful nuclear energy sector that combines the strengths of its innovative model with the benefits of advanced Generation III light water reactors to create a program that sets new benchmarks for transparency, safety, security, nonproliferation, and sustainability. We believe that success in this endeavor will not only benefit the UAE, its economy, and its people, but will have benefits for the broader international community as well.
JORDAN
Commissioner for International Cooperation, Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
So much has been made in the press of the renewed interest in developing nuclear power in the Middle East. The necessity for nuclear power in developing countries, and in particular the Middle East, is underestimated by the industrialized countries. The greatest expansion of energy demand over the coming decades will be in the developing world. Global predictions of energy demand and supply are misleading for policy or planning needs. Regional and, even better, national detailed projections are more accurate. A point of illustration is the Middle East, where the conventional opinion is of a “rich” oil-producing region. On a country-by-country basis, it is clear that many countries in the Middle East are actually suffering under the toll of high oil prices. A case in point is Jordan, where more than 25 percent of the national budget is spent to import energy.
Despite its location in a politically volatile region, Jordan has experienced strong and consistent economic growth and has received substantial foreign investment in recent years. Jordan is still facing many economic challenges, such as its international public debt (roughly 78 percent of GDP), poverty (30 percent), and unemployment (12 percent). His Majesty King Abdullah II, since assuming the throne in 1999, has initiated a wide range of economic, business, and social reforms to improve the Jordanian standard of living. In the past five years, Jordan has privatized many public utilities and industries as well as tightened monetary policy. Since liberalizing its trade practices, Jordan joined the World Trade Organization, signed a free trade accord with the United States, and joined the European Free Trade Association. Jordan is now a relatively safe haven for foreign investment in the Middle East.
Over the past decade, Jordan has experienced strong and consistent economic growth. The inflation-adjusted GDP has risen every year from 1995 to 2005 and is now more than 9 billion Jordanian dinars ($12.7 billion). Over the 10-year period, this represents an average annual increase of 6.8 percent. More importantly, real, inflation-adjusted growth has been strong over the same period, averaging 4.6 percent per year.
Several events, constraints, and challenges, however, are inhibiting future economic growth, including increasing energy costs, lack of domestic conventional energy resources, a scarcity of water, and a deterioration of the environment due to increased consumption of fossil fuel resources.
The war in Iraq has had a huge impact on Jordan. Prior to the war, daily imports of more than 100,000 barrels of Iraqi petroleum supplied almost all of Jordan's oil consumption. Not only has that flow been disrupted, but more importantly, much of the petroleum was being provided at below-market prices. Paying market prices for oil has forced the government to raise retail prices and the sales tax. Compounding the problem, Jordan's export market depended on Iraq. That source of trade was decimated in the early years of the war but is currently showing some signs of recovery.
The uncertainty of energy supplies and their increasing costs are severely affecting the growth of the country's economy and its security. Jordan imports more than 95 percent of its energy needs. Hence, the development of secure alternative energy supplies is a top priority for the kingdom.
Jordan has limited options to substitute for oil products. The chief option is natural gas, which can displace oil but is a short- to mid-term option and cannot be relied upon for the long term. Most of Jordan's natural gas comes from Egypt, and there is a cap on the special, below-market price it offers, which cannot be sustained over the longer term.
Our vision is to transform Jordan from a net energy importer to a net electricity exporter by 2030. This will require a major transformation away from fossil fuels with the aim of making low-cost power available to sustain the country's continued economic growth.
Jordan has been seriously exploring nuclear power as a medium- and long-term alternative for electricity generation, water desalination, and as insurance for both energy security and future volatility of oil and natural gas prices. It is an important alternative to fossil fuels and is a particularly important component in a low-carbon energy strategy.
Nuclear power also maximizes and leverages Jordan's indigenous uranium resources. The kingdom is endowed with rich uranium resources that have not been fully explored, with estimated reserves of about 70,000 metric tons of uranium oxide. There are, however, many challenges standing in the way of introducing nuclear power in Jordan, such as the high investment cost, the need for skilled engineers and technicians, the limited number of suitable sites for power plants, the lack of adequate water sources for cooling, and the volatile regional political climate.
Since 2001, Jordan has been developing a national strategy for civilian nuclear power. Early this year, Jordan's parliament empowered the Jordan Atomic Energy Commission (JAEC) to lead the national effort and implement the kingdom's nuclear strategy. In compliance with international practices, Parliament established an independent Jordan Nuclear Regulatory Commission to promulgate the needed legal, regulatory, and security framework for the introduction of nuclear power.
To undertake uranium exploration, the JAEC established Jordan Energy Resources and is discussing creative financial models with interested partners to support the nuclear program. The commission is negotiating cooperation agreements with key countries including Britain, Canada, China, France, Russia, and the United States and is exploring appropriate technologies and avenues for cooperation with several suppliers.
To address human resource development, a nuclear engineering degree program was established in 2006 at Jordan University of Science and Technology, and a research reactor is to be located at the university for education, training, and isotope production.
To sustain and enhance the contribution of nuclear power as an energy option in the Middle East, it is necessary for all countries in the region to accept International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards on all of their nuclear activities, leading to the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the region, as a prelude for full adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
EGYPT
Ambassador of the Arab Republic of Egypt to the United States
The pursuit of a civilian nuclear energy program by any state is determined essentially from its perception and forecast of its future energy needs and economic growth. The Egyptian decision in October 2007 to consider nuclear power plants is a case in point.
Egypt's interest in nuclear technology started in 1955 and has gone through three stages. The first stage commenced with the establishment of Egypt's Atomic Energy Authority by President Gamal Abdel Nasser, a period in history when the world community was keenly interested in harnessing the potential of peaceful nuclear technology while embracing nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. This was followed by the Egyptian operation of a 2-megawatt Soviet-supplied research reactor in 1961.
The second effort to revive Egypt's nuclear program was started tentatively in the 1970s by President Anwar Sadat, but this came to an end before initiation in 1986 in light of safety concerns associated with the Chernobyl nuclear disaster.
The third effort was initiated by a study of the majority-holding National Democratic Party in 2005 and was followed by a national dialogue on energy resources in 2006, which eventually prompted President Hosni Mubarak's announcement in October 2007 that Egypt would consider constructing nuclear power plants. Here again, the main factor in the decision was the economy's future energy demand.
A lot of questions have been raised concerning the timing of the Egyptian decision to pursue nuclear power and whether the decision is linked with current regional and global concerns over the nature of the Iranian nuclear program. This is a legitimate question, but targeted at the wrong addressee.
As I have just outlined, Egypt's consideration of nuclear energy commenced long before the Iran-related concerns seriously materialized. At the same time, Egypt is undergoing a massive economic reform program, the success of which has increased Egypt's interest in and need for civilian nuclear energy.
The ambitious Egyptian modernization program has created a pressing need to develop alternative domestic sources of energy. A relative decline in oil production, an economic growth rate of 7 percent, a sharp rise in population, the nearly full utilization of hydroelectric resources, an expected 3 percent wind energy capacity in 2010, and a visible increase in Egypt's current and future daily energy demands are all important factors that have pressed Egypt to chose between facing an energy-demand crisis in the near future, or turning to other sources of energy, including nuclear power. The Egyptian national debate on this issue swayed toward the latter, particularly after the growth rate of Egypt's annual electricity demand grew from 7 percent (over the past decade) to 10.3 percent in 2006-2007.
The Supreme Council for the Peaceful Purposes of Nuclear Energy is leading efforts to develop the legal and legislative framework of the nuclear program, in close consultation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Egypt envisions the construction of four nuclear power plants by the year 2022 with an annual gross production equivalent to 7 million metric tons of oil. Egypt is currently in the process of choosing an international consultancy firm to assist in the selection of the most suitable locations for the operation of nuclear power plants. Once the firm has been chosen, the next step will be to hold a tender in 2009 to select reliable partners in this endeavor.
In parallel with its nuclear power plant venture, Egypt will consistently remain a global leader in implementing its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations and a strong supporter of nuclear disarmament and of efforts to free not only the Middle East but also the globe of all forms of weapons of mass destruction.
The Egyptian decision to establish nuclear power plants has provided many possible areas of cooperation with its international partners and allies. Such areas include–but are not confined to–evaluation of potential plant sites, strengthening safety measures of the nuclear infrastructure, and development of human resources for the industry. I would also like to point out that since the late 1990s, Egypt has been an active participant in a series of technical cooperation projects with the IAEA on nuclear power generation, which included uranium exploration, training of personnel, and conducting a feasibility study on small- and medium-sized nuclear power plants.
Egypt looks forward to working with the IAEA and interested members of the international community on this important endeavor.
THAILAND
President, Thailand Institute of Nuclear Technology
With the recovery after the 1997 Asian economic crisis, Thailand's energy consumption has increased remarkably. Although Thailand relies heavily on imported energy, its energy security has been maintained through a diversity of energy types and sources. Nonetheless, the production of electricity is still highly dependent on fossil fuel. Net imports of energy from neighboring countries are expected to continue to meet a major share of total electricity demand.
From a national perspective, the security of future fuel supply is a major factor in assessing nuclear power's sustainability. The global abundance of naturally occurring uranium makes nuclear power attractive from an energy security standpoint.
Trends in energy prices will be volatile in the future, due to unpredictable fluctuations in the world energy market, the economic growth of the country, and the development of new technologies. The emission of air pollutants and greenhouse gases is also an important issue that influences future power generation choices. Nuclear power is an important option for meeting energy needs while also achieving security of supply and minimizing carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, the Thai Ministry of Energy considers nuclear power an option for the future and includes this option in its power development plan.
According to the development plan, four nuclear power plants producing a total of 4,000 megawatts will be added to the power system between 2020 and 2021, raising the country's total installed generating capacity to 31,790 megawatts. Nuclear would then contribute up to 9 percent of the country's electricity.
From a national perspective, the security of future fuel supply is a major factor in assessing nuclear power's sustainability. The global abundance of naturally occurring uranium makes nuclear power attractive from an energy security standpoint.
The construction of nuclear power plants could lead to growth in Thai personal income, the employment of 5,000 people directly in the plants, and economic growth with benefits for the whole industrial sector. In addition, this construction would increase the number of people employed as supporting personnel for the future nuclear industry, as well as other nuclear technology industries, and other related specialties, including power plant construction.
Nuclear technology is not new to Thailand. The country has a 2-megawatt research reactor, which it has operated for more than 45 years. Consequently, a great deal of knowledge and expertise exists among Thai nuclear scientists, nuclear engineers, reactor operators, and reactor technicians.
Moreover, Thailand has been utilizing non-power nuclear technology in a wide range of applications for more than 50 years, such as in the use of radioisotopes, X-rays, and particle accelerators.
Unfortunately, Thailand squandered its opportunity to build a nuclear power plant for more than 30 years. This has contributed to slower economic and technological development than its neighbors such as Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan, and India.
Acquiring nuclear power plants could become a key piece of Thailand's national agenda and a source of national pride when the country builds up its nuclear technologies to the level of many developed countries.
WWW.THEBULLETIN.ORG