Abstract
On April 14, 2000, the start ii Treaty was finally ratified by the Russian Duma, opening the way for a possible start iii Treaty. Start ii was signed in January 1993 and ratified by the U.S. Senate on January 26, 1996. After his election in March, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would not implement the treaty if the United States went ahead with plans to deploy a National Missile Defense system.
Non-strategic forces
Flight testing of the Topol M began on December 20, 1994. On October 22, 1998, a Topol M exploded after being launched from the Plesetsk test site. It was the Topol M's fifth test launch and the missile was intended to fly across Russia to a target on the Kamchatka Peninsula. The sixth test, on December 8, 1998, was successful. There were four flight tests in 1999.
Two silo-based Topol Ms were put on “trial service” in December 1997 at Tatishchevo. On December 27, 1998, according to the Russian government, the 104th Regiment, under the Taman Missile Division, had 10 missiles that were operational. Another 10 Topol Ms were declared operational in December 1999. The 104th's silos formerly housed SS-19 missiles.
An ambitious Topol M production schedule was announced in 1998 by Gen. Vladimir Yakovlev, the commander of Russia's Strategic Missile Tr oops. He said that Russia planned to make 20-30 SS-27s operational each year for the next three years, and 30-40 a year for the three years after that. According to this schedule, 70-100 missiles would be ready by the end of 2001, and 160-220 by 2004. It is obvious that these schedules are not being met. A more realistic rate of production—given Russia's limited resources—is 10-15 missiles a year, with perhaps some 60-80 fielded by the end of 2005.
The operational tempo of Russia's SSBNs has been reduced significantly since the end of the Cold War. According to press reports, Russia currently maintains one submarine on patrol in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific, with at least one more in each fleet on pier-side alert. During the three-month period May-July 1998, Russia reportedly had no SSBNs on patrol because of safety concerns.
The keel of the first new Borey-class SSBN was laid in November 1996. However, construction of Borey-class subs was suspended altogether in 1998. Chief of the Navy Adm. Vladimir Kuroyedov announced the submarine was being redesigned to accommodate a new missile. It is unlikely that any Borey-class subs will join the fleet for six to seven years.
On November 17, 1999, the navy fired two SS-N-20 missiles from a Typhoon-class submarine in the Barents Sea. The missiles hit targets 4,900 kilometers away on the Kamchatka Peninsula and, according to Admiral Kuroyedov, “demonstrated top combat readiness.”
Despite rhetoric about maintaining a sea-based leg of the triad, the future of the Russian SSBN force remains very much in doubt.
Strategic forces
On June 25, two TU-95 Bear bombers flew within 60 miles of Iceland as part of an extensive series of Russian war games called West-99. They were intercepted by four U.S. F-15 fighters and a P-3 training aircraft, U.S. officials said. West-99 involved as many as 50,000 troops from five military districts and three naval fleets. The exercise involved more than 30 ships, four submarines—including the nuclear-powered Kirov—as well as Russian Air Force and Navy aircraft capable of launching air-to-air and air-to-ground cruise missiles.
According to the July 1, 1999 START I MOU, 17 Blackjack bombers are based in Ukraine at Priluki, and six are in Russia at Engels AFB near Saratov with the 200th Heavy Guard Bomber Regiment. The Blackjacks at Priluki are poorly maintained and are not considered operational. A November 1995 agreement calling for Ukraine to eventually return the Blackjacks, Bears, and more than 300 cruise missiles in its possession to Russia collapsed during the spring and summer of 1997. In October 1999, a deal was struck to return three Bear bombers, eight Blackjack bombers, and 500 cruise missiles from Ukraine as payment for part of Kiev's debt to Russia for natural gas. According to press reports, some of these planes may have been transferred from Ukraine to Russia. They are not included in the table below.
Some time ago the Russian Ministry of Defense ordered six new Tu-160s from the Kazan aircraft company, which belongs to the Tupolev group. Five of those have been completed and are at the Zhukovsky Test Center. With some effort and resources there soon could be as many 20 Russian Blackjack bombers.