Abstract
France
We estimate that the French operational stockpile, which peaked at almost 550 warheads in 1991-92, now consists of approximately 450 warheads of three types. It is likely to remain at this level for the foreseeable future.
The TN 75 was tested a number of times before July 1991, but President Jacques Chirac announced in June 1995 that the warhead needed a final certification test, one of the reasons he gave for resuming testing. (The French conducted six nuclear tests between September 5, 1995 and January 27, 1996, at their test site in the South Pacific. Then, on September 24, 1996, France signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which it ratified on April 6, 1998.) It is likely that the October 1, 1995 test at Fangataufa, with a reported yield of 110 kilotons, was a full-scale test of the TN 75. Series production at Valduc probably began soon after, and will continue for the next five years or so.
FRENCH NUCLEAR FORCES, 1999
Valduc dismantles warheads as well as assembles them. One-megaton TN 61 warheads from retired French intermediate-range ballistic missiles and TN 90 warheads from the Hadès short-range ballistic missile have probably been disassembled there.
Chirac's decisions in the nuclear area combined the withdrawal of several obsolete systems with a commitment to modernize those that remained. Many programs announced in the early 1980s would have increased the size of the French stockpile, but they have now been canceled, modified, or scaled back for budgetary and geopolitical reasons. Most significantly, in May 1992, France announced that the number of its new Triomphant-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) would be reduced from six to four. There had been speculation that Chirac might not purchase a fourth boat, but he reaffirmed that he would, and he also stated that a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the M51, would replace the M45 in the 2010-15 time period.
In actual practice, not every missile on an SSBN will be fully MIRVed. Fewer warheads are sometimes carried to increase range to the more distant targets specified in the war plan. About 300-325 TN 75 warheads will be produced for the future four-SSBN fleet. Three older SSBNs–Le Tonnant, L'Indomi-table, and L'Inflexible–will be phased out as the new SSBNs are introduced.
During President François Mitterrand's tenure there were numerous plans to replace France's silo-based S3D intermediate-range missile. But Chirac announced in February 1996 that the missile would be retired without replacement. On September 16, 1996, all 18 missiles on the Plateau d'Albion were deactivated, and the silos and complex have since been dismantled.
The three squadrons of Mirage 2000Ns have now assumed a “strategic” role in addition to their “pre-strategic” one. A fourth Mirage 2000N squadron at Nancy–now convention-al–is scheduled to be replaced with Mirage 2000Ds. Those aircraft may be modified to carry the ASMP and distributed to the three 2000N squadrons at Luxeuil and Istres, along with 18 ASMP missiles once deployed with Mirage IVPs. Nearly 100 ASMP missiles were built, and approximately 80 warheads were produced for those missiles. In his February 1996 speech, Chirac said that France would develop a longer-range ASMP, sometimes called the “ASMP plus” (with a 500-kilometer v. 300-kilometer range), for service entry in about a decade.
A French Mirage 2000N.
France has chosen the Rafale D as its multi-purpose navy and air force fighter/bomber for the twenty-first century. Its roles include conventional ground attack, air defense, air superiority, and nuclear delivery of the ASMP and/or ASMP plus. The navy's carrier-based version will be introduced first, with the air force's Rafale D attaining a nuclear-strike role in approximately 2005. The air force plans to buy a total of 234 Rafales.
France built two aircraft carriers in the 1950s and 1960s. The Clemenceau entered service in 1961, the Foch in 1963. Both were later modified to handle the AN 52 nuclear gravity bomb with Super Etendard aircraft. After the AN 52 was retired in July 1991, only the Foch was modified to “handle and store” the replacement ASMP. Some 20 ASMPs were allocated for two squadrons (approximately 24) of Super Etendard aircraft. The Clemenceau was never modified for the ASMP, and the 32,780-ton aircraft carrier was decommissioned in September 1997.
A new 40,600-ton aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, is scheduled to enter service in December 2000, four years behind schedule and at a cost of well over $3 billion. At that time the Foch will be laid up and decommissioned. The de Gaulle will have a single squadron of Super Etendards (presumably with about 10 ASMPs). There have been reports that the Super Etendard has been used in Operation Allied Force in Yugoslavia.
The French Navy will take delivery of nine Rafale Ms between the fall of 2000 and February 2002 for deployment on the Charles de Gaulle. A second carrier may be ordered at about that time. The navy plans to purchase a total of 60 Rafale Ms. The first 16 will perform an air-to-air role; later planes may carry the ASMP and/or ASMP plus.
Britain
In July 1998, Britain's Labour government announced several decisions resulting from its Strategic Defence Review:
▪ Only one British submarine will patrol at any given time, and that boat will carry a reduced load of 48 warheads, half the number the Conservative government had previously planned.
▪ The submarine will patrol at a reduced state of alert, its missiles de-targeted. It will be capable of firing its missiles within days, not minutes, as during the Cold War. It will also carry out a range of secondary tasks.
▪ Britain will maintain fewer than 200 operationally available warheads. This is a one-third reduction from the Conservative government's plan.
▪ Britain will purchase a total of 58 rather than 65 Trident D-5 missiles.
When these decisions are fully implemented, the total explosive power of Britain's operationally available weapons will have been reduced by more than 70 percent since the end of the Cold War. The explosive power of each Trident submarine will be one-third less than that of the Chevaline-armed Polaris submarines of recent years.
Until recently, the Royal Air Force operated eight squadrons of dual-capable Tornado GR.1/1A aircraft. But with the withdrawal of the last remaining WE177 bombs at the end of March 1998, the Tornadoes' nuclear role was terminated, bringing to an end the four-decade-long history of RAF aircraft carrying nuclear weapons. By the end of August 1998, the remaining WE177 bombs had been dismantled. The RAF base at Bruggen, Germany, is scheduled to be closed, and by the end of 2001 approximately 40 Tornadoes now at the base will be reassigned to bases at Lossiemouth, Scotland, and Marham, England.
BRITISH NUCLEAR FORCES, 1999
Britain built and deployed four Resolution-class SSBNs, commonly called Polaris submarines after the missiles they carried. The first, the HMS Resolution, went on patrol in mid-June 1968, and the last–the Revenge–in September 1970. The four boats conducted a total of 229 patrols over a 28-year period.
The Revenge was retired on May 25, 1992, after 56 patrols. The Resolution was decommissioned on October 22, 1994, after 61 patrols. The Renown was decommissioned on February 24, 1996, after 52 patrols, and the Repulse was withdrawn from service on August 28, 1996, after 60 patrols. The Chevaline warheads they carried have been dismantled to provide plutonium for new warheads.
The first submarine of Britain's new class, the HMS Vanguard, went on its initial patrol in December 1994. The second, the Victorious, entered service in December 1995. The third, the Vigilant, was launched in October 1995 and entered service in the fall of 1998. The fourth and final boat of the class, the Vengeance, was launched on September 19, 1998, with service entry scheduled for late 2000 or early 2001. The current estimated cost of the program is $18.8 billion.
Each Vanguard-class SSBN carries 16 U.S.-produced Trident II D-5 submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Technically, there are no specifically American or British Trident IIs. A pool of SLBMs are kept at the Strategic Weapons Facility Atlantic at the Kings Bay Submarine Base in Georgia. Britain has title to 58, but does not actually own them. A missile that is deployed on a U.S. SSBN may at a later date deploy on a British boat, or vice versa.
How many warheads will there be in the future British stockpile? Several factors go into the calculation. We assume that Britain will produce enough warheads for only three boatloads of missiles, a practice it followed with Polaris. As was stated in the Strategic Defence Review, there will be “fewer than 200 operationally available warheads.” If all four boats were fully loaded (MIRVed with three warheads) that would total 192. But the purchase of only 58 missiles means there will not be a full complement of missiles for all four boats. The government also stated that normally only one SSBN will be on patrol, with the other three in various states of readiness. A further consideration is the “substrategic” mission. A Ministry of Defence official described a substrategic strike as “the limited and highly selective use of nuclear weapons in a manner that fell demonstrably short of a strategic strike, but with a sufficient level of violence to convince an aggressor who had already miscalculated our resolve and attacked us that he should halt his aggression and withdraw or face the prospect of a devastating strategic strike.”
This substrategic mission began with Victorious and “will become fully robust when Vigilant enters service,” according to the Ministry of Defence's 1996 White Paper.
Some Trident II SLBMs have a single warhead and are assigned targets once covered by WE177 gravity bombs. For example, when the Vigilant is on patrol, 10, 12, or 14 of its SLBMs may carry up to three warheads per missile, but the other two, four, or six missiles may be armed with just one warhead. There is also some flexibility in the choice of yield of the Trident warhead. (Choosing to detonate only the un-boosted primary could produce a yield of only a few kilotons.) With dual missions, an SSBN would have approximately 36-44 warheads on board during patrol.
We conclude that the future British stockpile for the SSBN fleet will be around 160 warheads. With an additional 15 percent for spares, we estimate the total British stockpile to be approximately 185 warheads. At any given time, the sole SSBN on patrol might carry about 40 warheads. The second and third SSBNs could put to sea fairly rapidly with a similar loading, while the fourth might take longer due to its cycle of overhaul and maintenance.
In October 1998 the HMS Splendid sailed to the United States to collect Britain's first consignment of Tomahawk cruise missiles. The Royal Navy has purchased 65 Block III conventionally armed missiles at a cost of 190 million pounds. Seven attack submarines of the Swiftsure and Trafalgar classes will be equipped to fire the Tomahawk land-attack missile from vertical launch systems. On March 25, 1999, Britain fired Tomahawk missiles at Serbian targets in support of Operation Allied Force. The incorporation of Tomahawks into the British military is bound to complicate accounting and verification measures in any future START treaty that includes the nuclear version of the Tomahawk.