Abstract
Perhaps the most important development of 1998 occurred on October 1, when a new Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP-99)–the U.S. nuclear war plan–went into effect. Siop-99 resulted from Presidential Decision Directive 60, which was signed by President Clinton in November 1997, and is the first new national nuclear employment policy guidance since 1981.
The number of operational strategic nuclear weapons is estimated to be about 7,200, approximately the same level as last year. As we have discussed in the past, the size and composition of the total stockpile has stabilized. Over the next few years the actual number of intact warheads of all categories will be approximately 10,000, given current policy directives.
Accountable warheads under arms control obligations differ from actual warheads. Current U.S. policy is to retain force levels at start I levels. If start II enters into force and strategic nuclear force reductions are implemented to 3,500, the only difference will be in the ratio of deployed warheads to those in reserve. If and when start III enters into force, another 1,000-1,500 strategic warheads could be withdrawn from operational systems. Whether those warheads, and possibly others, are dismantled or merely shifted into the “hedge” or reserve category will depend on how successful the two sides are in negotiating new protocols that designate the warhead as the new accountable unit to be destroyed (as opposed to launchers or delivery vehicles).
Two of the three bases that housed Minuteman II ICBMs have blown up their silos in accordance with the START Treaty. The silo destruction program was completed in September 1996 at Ellsworth AFB, South Dakota, and in December 1997 at Whiteman AFB, Missouri. None of the empty silos that once housed the Minuteman IIIs at Grand Forks has been blown up yet. Hearings at the base were held in the summer to discuss the dismantlement of the 150 launch facilities (LF) and 15 missile-alert facilities (MAF), to be completed by 2002. One alternative is to retain 100 LFs and 10 MAFs for conversion and reuse with the proposed National Missile Defense system.
To comply with the ban on MIRVs when the START II Treaty enters into force, each of the 500 Minuteman III missiles will have the number of warheads reduced from three to one. Currently 300 missiles have the higher yield W78 warhead and 200 have the W62 warhead.
Several de-MIRVing options are possible. One would be to place a single W87 warhead on each Minuteman III. Five hundred W87s will be removed from the 50 MX missiles when they are retired. The W87 warhead has preferred safety features, including insensitive high explosive (IHE), fire resistant pit (FRP), and the enhanced nuclear detonation system (ENDS). The W78 only has ENDS.
A drawback for the W87 option, given the “hedge” policy, is the difficulty of putting multiple warheads back on the missiles, if the force is reconstituted. A second option is to use a single W78 on each missile. The third, and perhaps preferred, option would be to put W78s on a portion of the force–for example, 150 of the 500 missiles–and W87s on the rest. This choice uses the newer warhead and permits easier re-MIRVing.
Previously the downloading was to have been accomplished within seven years of the entry into force of start I, by December 5, 2001. But under the new Helsinki protocol, it does not have to be completed until the end of 2007.
In an effort to save money, the air force transferred responsibility for maintaining the readiness of the 550 ICBMs to TRW Inc., a private contractor. The contract, awarded on December 22, 1997, could total $3.4 billion over a 15-year period that runs through 2012.
TRW also will manage the three-part program to upgrade the Minuteman missiles. The launch control centers already have been updated with Rapid Execution and Combat Targeting (react) consoles. The second part of the program is to improve the missile's guidance system. In March 1998 Boeing won the contract to produce 652 upgraded guidance units for the 500 Minuteman missiles in the field, with the balance for spares and tests. The first units are planned to be fielded in early 1999.
A live-flight test of a Minuteman III with the upgraded guidance system was conducted from Vandenberg AFB on June 24th. These measures eventually will increase the accuracy of the Minuteman III to nearly that of the current MX–a circular error probable (CEP) of 100 meters. The third part involves “repouring” the first and second stages, incorporating the latest solid propellant and bonding technologies. The third stage will either be refurbished or rebuilt.
U.S. strategic nuclear forces, end of 1998
Future plans for the four submarines to be retired are unclear. One possibility would be to retire two and convert or modify two to be specialpurpose submarines. Conversion is permitted but it is a more costly and extensive process because the submarine's missile tubes must be removed. Modification would leave the tubes empty, but the process must be agreed to by both sides.
Start I allowed a special dispensation for two “Poseidon” submarines. If the navy wanted to replace those two with two Trident submarines, it would have to be agreed upon in a future treaty.
In March 1997 Presidents Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin, at a summit meeting in Helsinki, agreed to adjust some of the timetables regarding elimination and deactivation. On September 26, 1997 protocols were signed in New York extending the implementation period for five years, from the beginning of 2003 to December 31, 2007. However, all delivery vehicles that would be eliminated to meet the START II limits will have to be deactivated by the end of 2003 through the removal of warheads or through some other jointly agreed method.
The navy continues to purchase Trident II SLBMs: in the fiscal year 1999 Pentagon budget, five missiles were purchased. The NPR called for backfitting four Trident I-equipped SSBNs with Trident IIs, increasing the number of missiles to be procured from 390 to 434, at an extra cost of $2.2 billion. Twenty-eight additional missiles were bought for the research and development program. The total cost of the program is now $27.5 billion, or $60 million per missile.
Although almost $24 billion has been authorized through fiscal year 1999, some have questioned the need to continue buying missiles if the future force under START III is going to be fewer than 14 SSBNs. A force of 10 submarines, for example, requires 347 missiles and would result in significant savings.
The Bangor base will have to undergo some adaptation to support the Trident II, though activities such as training can be done at Kings Bay, Georgia. The backfitting of the four SSBNs will take place from fiscal year 2000 to fiscal year 2005. Eventually two or three submarines will be shifted from Kings Bay to Bangor to balance the 14-submarine fleet. To comply with START II warhead limits, the navy will have to either download its SLBMs, retire additional SSBNs, or do both. Under the new START II timetable, SLBMs can have no more than 2,160 warheads by the end of 2004, and no more than 1,750 warheads by the end of 2007.
If there is a START III with limits of 2,000-2,500 deployed strategic warheads, the SSBN portion would likely account for approximately half, which would mean a fleet of 10 to 12 submarines, depending on the number of warheads per SLBM. Some speculate that with a SSBN fleet of a dozen or less, the Bangor base could be closed, although war planners object to this plan because China would not be adequately targeted.
While much has changed, some things have not. The practice of each SSBN having a Blue crew and a Gold crew remains. In 1998, at any given time, approximately nine or 10 U.S. SSBNs were on patrol, a rate equal to that at the height of the Cold War. Roughly half of those on patrol (two or three in each ocean) are on “hard” alert–within range of their targets. The remaining patrolling SSBNs are in transit to or from their launch-point areas, and could be brought up to hard alert within a matter of hours or days.
Although the START Tr eaty uses eight warheads per Trident missile as the counting rule, the actual loading of a submarine will normally be less than the full complement of 192 per boat. Because a missile's range can be extended by carrying fewer warheads, some SLBMs may have five or six warheads while others have seven or eight. The SIOP ultimately determines how a SSBN will be loaded, where the SLBMs will be launched from, and what targets the warheads will be aimed at.
By the end of 1995 eight B-2s had arrived at Whiteman. Five were delivered in 1996, four in 1997, and two in 1998, bringing the total to 19. All six aircraft from the test program are being modified to achieve operational capability, which will bring the total to 21.
From March 20-22, 1998, approximately 250 personnel from the 509th deployed to Andersen AFB, Guam, via C-5A cargo planes as part of Island Spirit, a 10-day “Global Power” exercise. On March 23, two B-2s left Whiteman for Andersen AFB as part of the exercise. They returned to Missouri April 5.
The B-2 is configured to carry various combinations of nuclear and conventional munitions. The first 16 planes were produced as block 10 versions, able to carry the B83 nuclear bomb (and the Mk 84 conventional bomb). These were followed by three production-block 20 versions, able to carry the B61 bomb. The last two planes were block 30 versions able to carry both types of nuclear bombs and an assortment of conventional bombs, munitions, and missiles. Earlier-block planes are being upgraded to block 30 standards at the factory in Palmdale, California. The program will be completed in the year 2000, when there will be 21 Block 30 B-2s.
Under START II the B-1B bombers will not be counted as nuclear weapon carriers. The transition of the bomber to a conventional role has been completed, though START II has not entered into force. The B-1s have been removed from the SIOP mission and the bombs for the planes at Ellsworth and Dyess stored in Weapons Storage Areas (WSAs) have been moved to other bases. The START II Treaty requires that “Each Party shall locate storage areas for heavy bomber nuclear armaments no less than 100 kilometers from any air base where heavy bombers reoriented to a conventional role are based” (Article I V, Section 10). The treaty does permit bombers reoriented to a conventional role to be returned to a nuclear role.
Of the original 100 B-1B bombers, five have crashed. The dates of the accidents are September 28, 1987, November 8, 1988, November 17, 1988, November 30, 1992, and September 19, 1997.
As recently as 1985 the air force had 260 B-52Gs and Hs. All B-52Gs have been retired and of the original 104 H models, 93 are left; 58 with the 96th, 20th, and 11th Bomb Squadrons of the 2d Bomb Wing at Barksdale AFB, Louisiana; 35 with the 5th Bomb Wing at Minot, North Dakota; and two test planes at Edwards AFB, California.
A number of air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) continue to be converted to conventional versions while other ALCMs and bombs are being placed in dormant storage to be part of a reserve and/or hedge.