Predictive Value of Technically Adequate and Normal Abdominal Sonography Prior to Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography

Abstract

A prospective study identified 85 patients who had endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) within 60 days of a technically adequate sonogram of the biliary tree and pancreas which was normal using strict criteria. Eighty-two normal sonograms ultimately proved to be true-negatives and two were false-negatives. The correct diagnosis is uncertain in one patient. The three incorrect or potentially incorrect sonograms were performed in the first year of a 2-year study. Patients who have both a technically acceptable and completely normal sonogram of the biliary tree and pancreas are very unlikely to have an abnormal ERCP.