Exploring the Dynamics of Radicalization in Pakistan: A Comprehensive Analysis

Abstract

Across the globe, radicalization is understood as a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that is on the rise. The emergence of various extreme ideologies and groups underscores the pressing need to recognize the underlying factors fueling radicalization. In Pakistan radicalization is a multifaceted phenomenon influenced by a range of interconnected factors, including historical context, geopolitical dynamics, and the involvement of foreign actors. This study aims to comprehensively explore the underlying drivers of radicalization by examining various push and pull factors through the lens of social identity theory and grievances theory. Through qualitative research approach, in-depth and semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts of countering violent extremism, media and academia from across Pakistan. The analysis reveals six key factors shaping radicalization: Economic Deprivation and Poverty, Horizontal Inequalities, Political Instability and Marginalization, Weak Institutions and Inefficient Justice Systems, Religious Identity and State Policy, and Foreign Influence and Geopolitical Dynamics. These factors have highly increased the terrorism and anti-state interventions around the country particularly in post 9/11 scenario. The interconnectedness of these factors emphasizes the imperative for a comprehensive approach in addressing radicalization. The policymakers and practitioners need to devise deradicalization strategies that recognize the intricate nature of radicalization within Pakistan and its broader socio-political landscape.

Introduction

The world has recently witnessed a surge in violent extremism, resulting in the loss of innocent lives from various races, religions, and nationalities. Radicalization, a significant precursor to violent extremism, is on the rise globally. Individuals of different age groups, religious beliefs, literacy levels, employment statuses, and genders are all susceptible to radicalization (Ehsan et al., 2021). Radicalization has been a persistent issue in Pakistan, manifesting itself in terrorism-related incidents over the years. The South Asia Terrorism Portal reports that Pakistan experienced 319 terrorism-related events in 2020, While this numbers have decreased from the peak of about 4,000 instances per year a decade ago, however, extremism continue to be prevalent due to many factors (Afzal, 2021).

Pakistan experienced massive waves of terror following 9/11, particularly during the US presence in Afghanistan, and suffered massive human and material losses. The scale of the problem of radicalization and terrorism in Pakistan is staggering, with a significant loss of life and economic cost. According to the South Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP, 2023), between 2000 and 2022, an estimated 66,000 Pakistanis died due to terrorism. This includes 35,190 deaths from terror bombings and 14,540 deaths from suicide attacks. These numbers reflect the devastating impact that radicalization and extremism have had on the country and its people. It is important to note that these numbers are likely to underestimate the actual number of deaths caused by terrorism in Pakistan. Other than that, Pakistan suffered a huge economic loss, according to the parliamentary secretary for commerce and investment, Pakistan has incurred $152 billion in economic losses since the start of the war on terror 20 years ago (Ahmed, 2021).

Understanding the diverse trends and patterns of radicalization and their underlying causes is particularly challenging in the context of Pakistan. The country is ethnically diverse and divided along ethnolinguistic, ideological, sectarian, and political lines (Hashmi, 2016). Radicalization in Pakistan is a multifaceted and complex phenomenon that has been extensively studied in recent years. However, most research has focused on areas affected by militancy and terrorism, such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) now called merged districts. A more comprehensive understanding of the issue can be gained by studying radicalization at the sub-national level and examining various manifestations, trends and patterns across different regions and communities in Pakistan.

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the factors contributing to radicalization in Pakistani society, drawing on insights from field experts with experiences in researching and addressing this issue. Researchers have often isolated individual factors or focused on specific regions, while this research offers a holistic examination that connects both local and global dynamics, providing a more integrated understanding of radicalization’s drivers across the country. By synthesizing findings across multiple domains—socio-economic, political, religious, and geopolitical—this research highlights the intersectionality of radicalization, an area often overlooked in radicalization studies in Pakistan.

The findings of this study recognizes that radicalization is not confined to specific regions but is a pervasive issue across Pakistan, advocating for a comprehensive approach that examines the entire country rather than focusing solely on traditionally highlighted regions and aspects. The study also explores the significant role of foreign influence and geopolitical dynamics towards radicalization. The literature contributes to integrate the analysis of the impact of external factors such as post-9/11 foreign policy and international interventions on the global dimensions of radicalization.

The findings of this study offer critical insights to both policymakers and scholars for addressing radicalization’s fundamental root causes and factors such as economic deprivation, political instability, institutional weakness, and religious identity. Furthermore, the suggestions of the respondents might be useful for devising effective counter-radicalization strategies in both national and regional contexts, by fostering resilience, and promoting sustainable peace in Pakistan.

Literature Review

Scholars and researchers (Gill, 2007; Wilner and Dubouloz, 2010) have documented the global increase in radicalization, emphasizing its impact on societies and countries. It is important to note that radicalization does not necessarily lead to immediate violence, often manifesting as a protracted and unrecognized process within a nation (USIP, 2012a, 2012b). Radicalization, defined as the process through which individuals or groups adopt extreme ideologies advocating for significant social, political, or religious change, has emerged as a critical concern globally (Moskalenko, 2021; Nurish, 2020). Radicalization is a multifaceted concept with significant implications for violence, extremism, and civil wars. It encompasses adopting extremist ideologies by individuals or groups, fostering a willingness to employ violence to achieve their objectives. Radicalization occurs at various levels, from individual radicalization to the radicalization of entire communities or societies (Milosevska, 2022). Radicalization involves an individual internalizing and reinforcing an extreme ideology, gradually moving towards violent actions, although this progression is not always linear. Extreme ideologies often justify using violence to bring about political or religious change, with external networks and groups playing a significant role in this process (Hardy, 2018). Radicalization may be defined as the process through which individuals develop extremist views and progress toward violent behavior (Gill, 2007; McCauley & Moskalenko, 2008). Predicting who will undergo radicalization and when they may engage in violent acts remains challenging, making the study of radicalization a complicated field (Borum, 2015; Desmarais et al., 2017).

Moreover, the consequences of radicalization are far-reaching, affecting individuals and communities. It can lead to acts of violence, terrorism, and social unrest (Rahimullah et al., 2013). Radicalized individuals may become isolated from mainstream society and engage in extremist activities that threaten national security (Mahfud et al., 2018). Radicalization can also strain intergroup relations and foster societal divisions (Z. Khan et al., 2018). A range of security threats emerged in the wake of 9/11, represented by people and organizations supporting radicalized religious and ideological viewpoints (Awan et al., 2009). In Pakistan, these challenges materialize in various forms, including terrorism, violent extremism, as well as ethnic and sectarian violence. Radicalization and extremism have been significant issues in Pakistan for several years. The country has faced challenges related to terrorism, religious extremism, and radicalization, resulting in a significant loss of lives, and posing a threat to national security (Shahab et al., 2021). Numerous factors contribute to the prevalence of extremism in Pakistan, including socio-political grievances, religious tensions, regional conflicts, and geopolitical dynamics (Ahmad et al., 2022; Qureshi & Naz, 2022).

The phenomenon of radicalization, which has contributed significantly to the current militancy in Pakistan, is of utmost significance in the country’s fragile security environment (USIP, 2014). Radicalization affects Pakistan’s socio-political and economic environment in several ways. The youth in Pakistani society has been particularly susceptible to radicalization, with instances of violent extremism and ethnic violence (Rauf et al., 2022). The lack of inclusive political, social, and educational alternatives exacerbates this issue, reinforcing exclusionary Islamic identities and providing space for groups that espouse violence in the name of such identities (Shahab et al., 2021).

Furthermore, a study by the Pew Research Center (2014) found that 93% of Pakistanis view radicalization and terrorism as the most significant challenges facing their nation (S. A. Khan, 2015). Additionally, the Global Terrorism Index ranks Pakistan as the third most impacted nation by terrorism, following only Iraq and Afghanistan (IEP, 2015, 2016). The country has become a target for extremist groups that espouse violent ideologies, leading to a rise in terrorist attacks. Since the middle of the 2000s, Pakistan has experienced an avalanche of terrorism that has claimed the lives of thousands of people, including politicians, security forces, and activists. One of the most tragic examples was the 2014 Peshawar army public school massacre, where 145 people, mostly students, died. This event marked a turning point for the Pakistani government, prompting a renewed effort to combat terrorism and extremist groups (USIP, 2014).

Radicalization-related behaviors and attitudes exhibit significant variation at subnational levels. While describing radicalization in Pakistan through a singular approach is challenging. The underlying causes of radicalization in Pakistan are numerous and complex. Potential factors include political marginalization, poverty, economic volatility, social inequity, sectarian tensions, low literacy rates, the influence of madrassas, and the indoctrination efforts of militant organizations (International Crisis Group, 2006).

Understanding the motivations behind radicalization has been a central focus of research on the topic. The consequences of radicalization in Pakistan have been profound, leading to significant changes in its social fabric and political landscape. Elements such as religion, politics, ideology, economics, and social dynamics are pivotal in shaping the emergence of Islamic militancy and religious radicalization within Pakistan (Basit & Rathore, 2010). This paper is an attempt to understand the underlying causes of radicalization in Pakistan.

Theoretical Framework

Radicalization represents a multifaceted phenomenon influenced by various psychological, social, and political factors. Within this context, two primary theories—Theory of Relative Deprivation and Social Identity Theory—are examined to explain the underlying mechanisms propelling individuals towards radical ideologies and extremist groups. These theories provided analytical tools for understanding the underlying motivations and mechanisms driving extremist behaviors.

Theory of Relative Deprivation

Relative Deprivation Theory (RDT) provides a compelling framework for understanding the dynamics of conflict in areas characterized by economic disparity and political exclusion. This theory posits that individuals or groups become radicalized when they perceive a discrepancy between their expectations and their actual conditions, particularly in comparison to others. Such perceived deprivation can stem from various sources, such as economic, social, or political factors, and it often leads to feelings of resentment, frustration, and injustice (Burgoon et al., 2018). In conflict zones, these emotions can escalate into violence, especially when combined with other socio-political factors.

Research consistently indicates that income inequality correlates significantly with increased terrorism and violence. For instance, Krieger and Meierreiks (2015) argue that heightened economic inequality fosters grievances that can lead to terrorism, reinforcing the notion that relative deprivation serves as a catalyst for aggressive behavior in response to perceived injustices. This assertion is echoed by Østby et al. (2009), who demonstrate that regions with pronounced relative deprivation concerning household assets are more prone to conflict, suggesting that economic disparities can exacerbate tensions and lead to violence.

Fair et al. (2016) highlights the connection between relative poverty and support for militant politics in Pakistani society. Their findings suggest that individuals who perceive themselves as poor are more likely to support militant groups, viewing them as providers of social services and political representation that the state fails to offer. The findings in our study underscores the idea that the radicalization process is not solely driven by ideological factors; rather, it is significantly influenced by socio-economic conditions and the perceived failures of the government to address these disparities.

Moreover, the concept of horizontal inequalities—based on group identities such as ethnicity or religion—considered to significantly influence conflict dynamics. Hillesund et al. (2018) emphasize that prominent levels of horizontal inequality can lead to communal violence, as marginalized groups may mobilize against perceived injustices. This is particularly relevant in contexts where political exclusion compounds economic deprivation, leading to heightened grievances and collective action (Zomeren et al., 2008).

The psychological aspects of relative deprivation are also crucial in understanding the motivations behind conflict. When individuals perceive a gap between their expectations and their actual outcomes, it can evoke feelings of frustration, anger, and resentment (Burgoon et al., 2018). This emotional reaction to group deprivation can manifest in various forms of behavior, including radicalization.

Research indicates that feelings of relative deprivation can lead to increased aggression and a desire for immediate change, which extremist groups often exploit (Shahab et al., 2021). For example, various root causes of radicalization in Pakistan, including economic, political, and social factors, emphasizing that perceptions of injustice and deprivation can drive individuals toward militant activities (Shahab et al., 2021).

Furthermore, Alauddin et al. (2023) explore the dual influences of religion and group identity on radicalism in Pakistan, suggesting that these factors interact with feelings of relative deprivation to push individuals toward extremist ideologies. The proliferation of fundamentalist groups in Pakistan is often linked to socio-economic grievances and the state’s failure to provide adequate support and opportunities for its citizens (Ahmad et al., 2022).

In the context of Pakistan, grievances related to political exclusion, economic inequality, social injustice, sectarian discrimination, and perceived injustices perpetrated by non-state actors or external forces can contribute to feelings of resentment and marginalization among certain segments of society. The theory of Relative Deprivation finds particular resonance in regions where economic disparities and political disenfranchisement are more pronounced, such as in provinces like Baluchistan and among historically marginalized communities. In these areas, feelings of exclusion can intensify grievances that fuel radical ideologies. These research findings support the arguments of the relative deprivation theoretical aspects as this provided valuable insight into the complex factors that drive individuals towards radical ideologies and movements.

Social Identity Theory

Social Identity Theory (SIT) devised and developed by Tajfel and Turner (1979), adds an important dimension by explaining how individuals, once frustrated, seek collective identities that solidify their radical beliefs. SIT posits that individuals derive a significant part of their identity from the social groups to which they belong, which in turn influences their attitudes, behaviors, and interactions (Scheepers & Ellemers, 2019; Brown, 2000).

In Pakistan, societal divisions along ethnic, sectarian, religious, and political lines significantly shape group identities and intergroup dynamics (Sandberg et al., 2023). SIT helps explain how individuals are radicalized by aligning themselves with extremist narratives that offer a sense of belonging and purpose, especially when their group identity is perceived to be under threat (Kruglanski et al., 2018). Extremist organizations frequently exploit these divisions, reinforcing in-group identities while demonizing out-groups, thereby perpetuating cycles of violence. For instance, groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emphasize a shared religious identity, positioning themselves as defenders of Islam. This narrative strengthens group cohesion and legitimizes violent actions against perceived adversaries.

This theory is particularly relevant in Pakistan, where exclusion and marginalization, especially in regions like Baluchistan, are rampant. The Baloch people have long felt economically deprived and politically marginalized by the central government, leading to the formation of a strong group identity rooted in their ethnic and cultural heritage. Kalim et al. (2018) argue that socio-economic disparities in Baluchistan have fostered a sense of structural neglect, which has been a significant factor fueling the Baloch insurgency.

In the context of radicalization, SIT is crucial for understanding how individuals become involved in extremist groups. In Pakistan, madrassas and political factions contribute to in-group/out-group dynamics by fostering identities based on religious or political narratives. Ahmed and Jafri (2020) highlight the role of right-wing groups, which, while publicly advocating for peace, often engage in radicalization efforts, particularly among students. These identities not only offer a sense of community but also reinforce grievances against perceived threats, further driving individuals toward radicalization.

A notable example of this dynamic is the sectarian violence between Sunni and Shia communities in Pakistan. Sectarian violence is often fueled by a keen sense of group identity, where both sects perceive existential threats from the other. Furthermore, Shahab et al. (2021) provide a comprehensive analysis of radicalization in Pakistan, identifying religious, political, and social factors that intertwine with sectarian identities. The authors argue that this interplay creates a conducive environment for radicalization, as individuals seek to assert their group identity in response to perceived injustices and threats from rival sects.

The argument is this research identifies the social identity and grouping as leading factor in motivation of various ethnic, nationalist, political and religious groups toward conflict. Therefore, SIT is highly relevant in the Pakistani context, offering valuable insights into the factors contributing to radicalization by emphasizing the importance of group dynamics, social categorization, and identity formation.

Material and Methods

The study utilized a qualitative research methodology, allowing for the adoption of flexible data collection techniques and continuous assessment of research methodologies during fieldwork. This method was chosen considering the sensitive nature of the research and its defined objectives.

Sampling and Use of Data Collection Tools

A purposive sampling method was employed to identify potential interviewees, which aimed to gather data from representatives of various organizations in different cities across Pakistan, including Peshawar, Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad. This strategy ensured that a diverse range of perspectives and experiences were included in the study. To gather detailed information and understand trends, in-depth interviews were conducted with 24 specialists from counter-extremism, media, and academia professional, all of them possessed significant experience of over 20 to 25 years in the field. Since the criteria for selection of respondents was restricted to professionals in the above fields, the number of respondents was limited to 24. The sample size was established according to the principle of saturation, whereby data collection persisted until no new insights or themes surfaced from the analysis. Similarly, the nature of the study is qualitative, and the primary data collection was based on indepth and semi-structured interviews, therefore, this sample size was considered sufficient to meet the research objectives and attain a thorough comprehension into the subject matter. The individual interviews conducted lasted for more than 2 hr which covered various themes under this research.

To ensure data accuracy and richness, both audio recordings and detailed notetaking were used concurrently. Prior to the interviews, participants received a comprehensive study information sheet outlining the research objectives and their rights as participants. This included assurances of confidentiality and anonymity. Verbal consent was then obtained before commencing the digital recording of each interview.

Participant Demographics

The core group of interviewees included experts directly involved in countering violent extremism (CVE) efforts, the inclusion of representatives from academia and the media broadens the scope of the research. This multifaceted approach allows for capturing diverse perspectives on various contexts of radicalization and factors influencing radicalization. The participants included:

• Countering violent extremism experts: Eight participants were identified from both government and non-government organizations such National Counter Terrorism Authority, security agencies and provincial counter terrorism department involved in countering violent extremism in Pakistan. The respondents were composed of directors or heads of institutions as in many cases lower category officials are not allowed to participate in such interviews.

• Academia: Respondents from academia, including associate professors and professors of Peace and Conflict Studies, International Relations, and Media and Communication Studies from Pakistan’s leading universities. Academic experts were included to provide insights into the theoretical and historical context surrounding radicalization.

• Media: Eight interviews were conducted with representatives of the media persons affiliated with the leading newspapers and electronic news channels in Pakistan. These media persons were selected on the basis of their vast experience and work on countering violent extremism.

Data Analysis

Thematic analysis was employed to examine the qualitative data gathered from in-depth interviews, enabling the identification of patterns, themes, and underlying meanings. This approach facilitated an exploration of participants’ perspectives on factors contributing to radicalization in Pakistan. The data underwent a rigorous coding process, followed by organization into thematic categories. These categories were then reviewed and refined until a final set of themes emerged, ensuring that the analysis captured the most significant and recurrent patterns within the qualitative perspectives.

To strengthen the analysis and gain a broader perspective, the coded data was compared to relevant secondary sources, including official reports from institutions and policymakers, news articles, academic research papers, and books on the topic of radicalization and violent extremism in Pakistan. This cross-referencing process not only confirmed the recurring themes identified in the interviews but also revealed significant gaps in the existing literature.

Limitations

While this study offers valuable insights into the factors driving radicalization in Pakistan, it is essential to acknowledge its limitations, particularly regarding the sample size. Although the 24 interviews included highly experienced professionals, this relatively small sample restricts the generalizability of the findings. While qualitative research often involves smaller sample sizes to allow for in-depth exploration of participants’ perspectives, the conclusions drawn from this study may not be representative of broader populations or contexts. The insights gained are significant but should be understood within the scope of this specific group. Time and resources have also limited the scope of this study and therefore, grassroot level impact of radicalization were not included. Overall, this research provides a nuanced understanding of the factors driving radicalization and the various strategies for combating violent extremism within the Pakistani context and allow for more robust generalizations.

Results and Discussions

Pakistan is currently facing several challenges, including terrorism, religious extremism, and ethnic violence, particularly in regions such as Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, South Punjab, and separatist movements in Baluchistan. Understanding the multifaceted dynamics of radicalization in Pakistan requires a thorough examination of the several factors that contribute to this phenomenon. Through a comprehensive analysis of the primary data, various push and pull factors of radicalization have been identified.

Push and pull factors are fundamental concepts in understanding radicalization processes. Push factors are the conditions or circumstances that drive individuals to seek alternatives or changes in their current situation. On the other hand, pull factors are the elements that attract individuals towards specific ideologies, groups, or actions. In the context of radicalization, push and pull factors significantly influence individuals’ decisions to engage in extremist activities (Cherney et al., 2021).

This section is based on the responses collected from the sampled population. The analysis reveals what the respondents viewed about different dimensions of the radicalization in Pakistan. The primary data has been supported with secondary sources where required and individual quotes of multi category respondents have been added.

Economic Deprivation and Poverty

For more than three decades, Pakistan has endured persistent turmoil, with a recent surge in extremism and radicalization attributed to a range of factors. Among these, the economic factor emerges prominently, identified by a majority of respondents as a significant driver behind the rise of religious fundamentalism and extremism in the country. According to the participants of this study, the root causes of attraction towards radicalization are poverty, limited access to education and employment opportunities, and governmental corruption, all of which create fertile ground for radicalization. A participant, notable for their expertise in countering violent extremism, highlighted the role of economic factors, stating,

Economic dynamics play a pivotal role in shaping extremism in Pakistan. A dearth of economic opportunities, stark wealth disparities between different societal segments, and widespread unemployment within marginalized communities collectively cultivate a mindset conducive to individuals engaging in terrorist activities.

A professor of peace and conflict studies pointed out that factors like inequality and economic instability create feelings of desperation, making individuals more vulnerable to extremist ideologies. This sentiment was echoed by a law enforcement representative, who noted that poverty and underdevelopment are significant contributors to radicalization. Pakistan’s large youth population further complicates the issue. Limited opportunities for young people, including high unemployment rates, can lead to frustration and a sense of hopelessness, making them more susceptible to radicalization. Research by Tanoli et al. (2018) supports this notion, suggesting that poverty, unemployment, and lack of education are key socioeconomic factors influencing the radicalization of young people in Pakistan.

Z. Azam and Fatima (2017) examined the root causes of radicalization and effectiveness of deradicalization efforts in Pakistan’s Swat Valley. Their study analyzed 47 former militants, revealing that poverty and limited economic opportunities were key drivers of extremism. Most participants came from low-socioeconomic backgrounds, lacked education, and held low-wage manual jobs or were unemployed before joining militant groups. Notably, the study also found these individuals had limited religious knowledge. These findings emphasize the importance of addressing socioeconomic factors to prevent radicalization and promote successful deradicalization programs.

In Pakistan, economic deprivation and poverty are significant drivers of radicalization, a phenomenon that resonates with the Theory of Relative Deprivation. This theory suggests that when people feel economically disadvantaged compared to others, they may be drawn to radical ideas. In Pakistan, where there’s a big gap between the rich and the poor, those facing poverty often feel left out and frustrated. Extremist groups take advantage of these feelings, offering a sense of power and purpose through their beliefs. So, poverty not only widens economic gaps but also fuels radicalization as people seek solutions to their problems.

Horizontal Inequalities

Political experts have widely studied the factors that contribute to radicalization, with a particular focus on the relationship between socioeconomic class and the emergence of extremism. Few participants of this study suggested that there is no direct correlation between low socioeconomic status and the risk of radicalization and extremism, rather it’s the socio economic inequalities that have a far greater impact. This has been supported by Piazza (2011), who claimed in their studies that countries with higher levels of poverty do not necessarily experience higher levels of terrorism. However, socioeconomic disadvantages or inequalities can contribute to radicalization by exacerbating perceptions of injustice. This aligned with the “relative deprivation” theory that suggests that people feel deprived when they see others having more wealth or social status, and they view this difference as unfair (Chrisman et al., 2012).

A peace studies institution director and security expert highlighted the correlation between socioeconomic disparities and extremism, emphasizing the role of horizontal and economic inequalities. He asserted that poverty, inequality, and weak governance in lower-class communities can fuel religious-based sectarian violence. Meanwhile, middle-class individuals may be motivated by political factors, with jihadism serving as a manifestation. Political shifts, radical narratives disseminated by extremist groups and media, contribute to radicalization. These dynamics form the basis for militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad, and Hizb e-Islami. Moreover, feelings of social alienation impact the upper middle class and elite members of society.

A professor of peace and conflict studies highlights the complex and deeply rooted nature of radicalization in Pakistan in the context of economic hardship, political instability, and weak governance. These issues create a sense of alienation and fuel grievances, ultimately leading to the violent expression of ethnic and religious identities. Additionally, Tanoli et al. (2018) underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in the radicalization process in Pakistan. Their study identifies poverty, illiteracy, unemployment, and a severe sense of deprivation as crucial elements influencing radicalization.

An interview with an academic respondent highlighted the dangers of horizontal inequalities, where resources are unequally distributed between different regions within a country. He argued that such inequalities can have a profound effect, potentially leading to national division, as Pakistan tragically experienced in the past. The respondent elaborated on the case of East Pakistan (present-day Bangladesh), emphasizing economic disparity as a primary driver of the 1971 partition. East Pakistan possessed a significant agricultural sector, yet the majority of industrial and financial resources were concentrated in West Pakistan. This created a sense of marginalization and resentment among East Pakistanis, leading to the country’s separation.

The interviewee further emphasized parallels between the historical case and the current situation in Baluchistan. Similar to East Pakistan, a sense of economic and political marginalization fuels the rise of separatist movements in Baluchistan. The province, despite being Pakistan’s largest, remains underdeveloped and impoverished. Inadequate investment, unequal resource distribution, and overall resource scarcity have resulted in widespread resentment and frustration, manifested in the Baluchistan Liberation Army’s (BLA) violent separatist activities.

Examining scholarly research on economic inequality as a driver of violent conflict in Pakistan reveals several recurring themes. Burki (2018) and Majid and Memon (2019) highlight significant patterns, including income disparities, feelings of deprivation and marginalization, disparities in regional or provincial economic growth and development, discrepancies in educational opportunities, and, in some instances, variations in land ownership percentages. When these elements combine, they have the potential to fuel the emergence of extremist ideologies and escalate violence and terrorism, posing a threat to the country’s stability and impeding its economic development. Additionally, the exacerbation of sectarian tensions due to these economic factors can exacerbate Pakistan’s economic and political difficulties.

Horizontal inequalities, characterized by disparities in social, economic, or political opportunities can be viewed through the lens of the Theory of Relative Deprivation. In the context of Pakistan, where ethnic, religious, and socio-economic divisions are prevalent, horizontal inequalities contribute to feelings of relative deprivation among marginalized groups. These groups perceive their treatment as unjust compared to more privileged segments of society, intensifying their grievances and resentment. The perception of being unfairly disadvantaged fuels susceptibility to extremist ideologies that promise to address their grievances and rectify perceived injustices. Thus, horizontal inequalities not only exacerbate feelings of relative deprivation but also serve as a catalyst for radicalization, highlighting the interconnectedness between socio-economic disparities and extremist narratives within Pakistani society.

Political Instability and Marginalization

Political instability and marginalization are critical factors influencing societal radicalization. A secure and peaceful society needs political stability, strong democratic institutions, equitable resource allocation, and inclusive representation. In the absence of these elements, certain segments of society become vulnerable to radicalization narratives. Edwards (2019) and Justino (2022) emphasized the link between politics and radicalization. They argued that radicalization is a societal process intertwined with the political landscape, emphasizing the significance of accountability, engagement, and conflict resolution within political spheres to mitigate radicalization risks.

Persistent political instability, characterized by frequent military interventions and dictatorships, has cultivated widespread skepticism towards governmental institutions, fostering an environment conducive to the spread of extremist ideologies in Pakistan. Moreover, the exploitation of religion for political gains by various political leaders has exacerbated the proliferation of religious extremism across societal fabrics.

An influential policy expert highlighted the inherent biases within Pakistan’s state apparatus, particularly in its treatment of individuals from diverse sects, ethnicities, and regions. This expert underscored the overwhelming influence of unelected institutions such as the military, judiciary, and bureaucracy, which predominantly consist of central Punjabi, Sunni, and male members of society. This structural dominance perpetuates a sense of exclusion among residents of regions like Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), fostering feelings of economic and political marginalization. Consequently, these marginalized communities are more susceptible to extremist ideologies, thereby increasing the likelihood of embracing radical tendencies (personal interview, March 20, 2022).

A professor of Peace and Conflict Studies, well-versed in the impact of horizontal inequalities on Pakistani extremism, highlighted the social, political, and cultural dimensions at play. They explained how these inequalities marginalize communities, making them more susceptible to radicalization. The professor pointed to the East Pakistan conflicts as a stark example. The interview revealed that socio-political and cultural inequalities significantly contributed to the partition. East Pakistan, predominantly Bengali-speaking, felt its language and culture suppressed by the Urdu-dominated government and military (primarily from West Pakistan). This created a sense of cultural and linguistic marginalization, fueling the demand for a separate state. Unequal treatment further intensified the issue. The government and military, heavily influenced by West Pakistan, prioritized its development over East Pakistan. This resulted in feelings of marginalization and resentment among East Pakistanis who felt denied their fair share of resources and opportunities. (Personal interview, March 9, 2022)

An expert on militancy in the region highlighted the military’s involvement in politics as a potential factor hindering democratic development. They argued that:

The military’s political involvement weakens Pakistan’s social and political fabric, potentially creating an environment conducive to radicalization. The expert further emphasized the concept of a “mullah-military alliance.” This alliance, where the military holds significant power and may tolerate religious extremism, creates a sense of insecurity among Pakistan’s non-Muslim minorities, who constitute a substantial portion – over one-fifth – of the population. (Personal interview, March 12, 2022)

In analyzing the factor of Political Instability and Marginalization within Pakistan’s context, the Social Identity Theory provides valuable insights into the dynamics of radicalization. This theory suggests that individuals derive their identity from social groups, and during periods of instability and marginalization, society fragments along political, ethnic, or religious lines. This fragmentation creates fertile ground for radical groups to exploit social identities in mobilizing support and recruiting followers. Therefore, Political Instability and Marginalization serve as catalysts for radicalization by amplifying the salience of social identities and fostering conditions conducive to the emergence of radical groups that offer a sense of belonging and empowerment to marginalized individuals.

Weak Institution and Inefficient Justice System

Weak institutions and an inefficient justice system significantly contribute to radicalization in Pakistan. These factors create an environment where grievances are not addressed, justice is not served, and individuals feel marginalized or disenfranchised, leading them to seek alternative means to address their concerns. According to Niazi et al. (2023), the lack of trust in the judicial system and perceived injustice can fuel feelings of alienation and frustration, pushing individuals towards extremist ideologies and actions. Moreover, the inefficiency of the judicial system can lead to a lack of accountability and transparency, fostering corruption and abuse of power. This further undermines public trust in institutions and contributes to disillusionment with the state, potentially driving individuals towards radicalization as they seek alternatives to the perceived failures of the existing system.

Our analysis shows that weak judicial systems and a lack of swift reforms are the primary factors contributing to the nation’s governance crisis and political upheaval. Gull et al. (2022), revealed that in the contexts of weak institutions, where the rule of law is not effectively enforced, individuals may perceive a sense of injustice, lack of empowerment, and protection.

Despite considerable discourse, the state of law enforcement in Pakistan remains inadequate. According to the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index, Pakistan ranks low in regulatory enforcement and upholding the rule of law (Abbasi, 2021). The country’s judicial system is inefficient, overwhelmed, and unable to provide prompt services to the public. This ineffectiveness in law enforcement has been identified as a key contributor to the proliferation of violent extremism in the country (Makki & Akash, 2022). As per majority of the participants of this study, the weak institutions, and a fragile judicial system in Pakistan act as significant factors of radicalization by fostering feelings of injustice, mistrust, and disenchantment with the formal justice system. Addressing these institutional weaknesses, improving the rule of law, and enhancing accountability and transparency are crucial steps in countering radicalization and promoting social cohesion and stability in the country.

In examining the influence of Weak Institutions and Inefficient Justice System within Pakistan’s context, the Theory of Relative Deprivation offers valuable insights into the dynamics of radicalization. In the case of Pakistan’s weak institutions and inefficient justice system, the respondents perceived a significant disparity between their expectations of fair treatment and the prevalent reality of systemic corruption, impunity, and lack of access to justice.

Religious Identity and State Policy

People from a broad variety of linguistic, cultural, and ethnic backgrounds make up Pakistan’s diversified society. Notwithstanding this diversity, the state has constantly attempted to foster a single, religiously based national identity, frequently at the price of respecting the distinct cultural identities of various ethnic communities.

As a result, the proliferation of religious extremism within the nation can be seen as a direct consequence of the state’s utilization of religion to forge a sense of national identity and cohesion. A public policy expert based in Islamabad states that, Pakistan is a country divided sharply along political, ideological, ethnic, and linguistic lines. Rather than celebrating this diversity, the government and non-democratic elites have attempted to forge a shared identity to unite the nation. This has often involved using religion as a means to craft a national narrative and foster national unity. Since its inception, the religion of Islam has been used to construct a national identity in Pakistan. (Personal interview conducted on February 2, 2022.)

Pakistan has seen a steady rise in religious extremism and radicalization in the post-partition phase. Since its creation in 1947, the country has sought to establish itself as an ideological state, but this has led to the proliferation of religious extremist groups that promote a strict interpretation of Islam and support a jihadist agenda. These groups have also been known to have ties with state institutions such as the army, inter-services intelligence, and external intelligence agencies.

Since the nation was founded in the name of religion, Pakistani leaders across generations have tried to use Islamic ideology to persuade its diversified population and defend against external threats. However, the flirtation with Islam by Pakistan’s leaders, notably exemplified in Zia ul-Haq’s pursuit of Islamization, has fostered Islamic radicalism, which now lies at the core of terrorism within Pakistan, posing multifaceted threats to the country’s stability. Pakistan has suffered both domestically and internationally from religious militancy, terrorism, and internal destabilization (Z. Khan, 2004). According to Bajoria (2011), the fusion of religion and politics in Pakistan has provided fertile ground for radical groups. They exploit religious sentiment to construct narratives justifying violence for their objectives.

In the early years following independence, Pakistan tended to be relatively secular, as Islamic parties could not play a significant democratic role in an elitist and underprivileged society. However, prolonged periods of authoritarian rule allowed these widely dispersed Islamist groups to seize political power under the control of army dictatorships, as the Pakistani military’s governments relied on the legitimacy of religious parties to maintain power (Ullah, 2013). During these extended periods of army control, religious parties with a confrontational strategy against the West rose to prominence in Pakistan. This strategy had its own repercussions, as religious extremism promotes religious concepts of national identity that politically unite and mobilize people and act as a benchmark for the legitimacy of governments.

The impact of religion on Pakistani politics has been amplified by General Zia’s promotion of religious and political movements. Madrassahs, or Islamic religious schools, have played a significant role in this trend and have been widely acknowledged as a major influence on Pakistani politics (Shahab et al., 2021). In discussions on the roots of radicalization in Pakistan, Abbas (2004) contends that a primary driver is religious extremism, particularly Islamic fundamentalism. Zia’s divisive religious policies exacerbated Shia-Sunni tensions and intensified sectarian conflicts, further radicalizing them.

The factor of Religious Identity and State Policy in Pakistan presents a complex interplay between religion, identity, and political manipulation, which aligns closely with the Social Identity. The Pakistani state has historically used religion as a means to cultivate a unified identity and justify political motives leading to the exploitation of religion for political advantages. Nonetheless, this exploitation has also led to the politicization of religious identity and the marginalization of minority groups, exacerbating inter-group tensions and fueling radicalization.

Foreign Influence and Geopolitical Dynamics

Pakistan’s radicalization landscape is intricately linked to foreign factors and geopolitical forces that have shaped the country’s socio-political development. Foreign influence has had a significant impact on the proliferation of extremist narratives in society, especially during times of regional conflicts and global power struggles. External players have had a crucial role in fueling radicalization and maintaining instability in Pakistan, beginning with the Soviet-Afghan War and continuing with the wake of 9/11. Understanding the complex interplay between foreign interventions, geopolitical interests, and domestic dynamics is essential for comprehending the multifaceted nature of radicalization in Pakistan and developing effective strategies to address this pressing issue.

The Soviet-Afghan War, spanning from 1979 to 1989, stands as another significant event that fueled the proliferation of extremism in Pakistan. During this period, the Pakistani government supported Afghan mujahideen fighters engaged in combat against Soviet forces in Afghanistan, providing financial aid and training, aided by the United States and Saudi Arabia. A considerable number of these fighters became radicalized during the conflict and subsequently returned to Pakistan, bringing back with them extremist ideologies.

Our respondents agreed to the context that during the latter years of the Cold War, the Islamist-Capitalist Nexus emerged as a pivotal force in shaping global politics. Islamist movements, motivated by the desire to combat communism, forged alliances with the Western capitalist bloc. This collaboration facilitated the rise of Islamist militancy as a significant player on the world stage. As recounted by a national security policymaker, this partnership involved the recruitment, training, and deployment of non-state actors under the guise of religious duty. The establishment of training facilities and madrassas for the purpose of recruitment in the name of jihad and Islam became widespread practices.

According to a security analyst and columnist from Dawn News, the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan during the 1990s was a major factor in the growth of radicalism in Pakistan. The analyst highlighted how Afghanistan, US, and Taliban relations influenced extremism perceptions, noting external involvement in worsening radicalization within Pakistan. When the US pressured Pakistan, its government supported the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. After the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, many Taliban fighters fled to Pakistan, where they formed new extremist groups. The Taliban’s presence in Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan, along with the US War on Terror, fueled anti-American sentiment, making some people more susceptible to extremist ideologies. The Taliban’s ongoing presence in Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan continues to be a factor in the complex issue of extremism in Pakistan.

This factor of radicalization in Pakistan can be effectively understood through the lens of the Social Identity Theory. This theory suggests that individuals derive a sense of identity and self-esteem from their membership in social groups, and this identity can be manipulated or strengthened by external factors such as geopolitical events and foreign interventions (Hogan et al., 2011). In the context of Pakistan, the involvement of external actors, particularly during the Soviet-Afghan War and the subsequent US-led War on Terror, has had a profound impact on shaping the social identities of various groups within Pakistani society. The support provided to mujahideen fighters during the Afghan War by the Pakistani government, in collaboration with the United States and Saudi Arabia, fostered a narrative of religious solidarity and resistance against foreign aggression among certain segments of the population. This narrative, rooted in the defense of Islam and national sovereignty, became a powerful tool for mobilizing support and galvanizing individuals towards extremist ideologies. Similarly, the US-led War on Terror, which saw Pakistan aligning with the US against militant groups operating in Afghanistan, further polarized society and reinforced perceptions of an “us versus them” mentality, heightening intergroup tensions and fostering a fertile ground for radicalization.

Conclusion

The phenomenon of radicalization in Pakistan is a multifaceted issue influenced by various factors, including economic deprivation, political instability, weak institutions, religious identity, and foreign influence. These elements contribute to a sense of exclusion and escalate grievances among different ethnoreligious identities. Economic disparities, horizontal inequalities, and political marginalization are critical dimensions that render society vulnerable to radicalization. These factors have historical precedents, evident in events such as the 1971 liberation war, and continue to manifest in ongoing conflicts, particularly in provinces like Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The interplay of economic, political, and psychological dimensions creates an environment conducive to the rise of extremist ideologies. Understanding these dynamics is essential for developing effective strategies to counter radicalization and promote social cohesion in Pakistan. The recurring nature of these issues underscores the urgent need for comprehensive and inclusive policies addressing economic inequality and political marginalization. Additionally, the interconnectedness of political, economic, and religious factors necessitates the development of trend-specific deradicalization strategies. Rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach, it is crucial to tailor interventions to address each contributing factor’s unique trends and patterns.

Respondents suggest that peace and stability may be fostered in Pakistan by bridging policy gaps in countering radicalization and addressing economic, socio-political, and religious factors. Implementing grassroots policies and fostering collaboration among various stakeholders can lead to meaningful progress toward sustaining peace in the country and enhancing regional stability.

Suggestions for Future Research

While conducting this research, we have found a number of research areas that might be pursued in future by academia, media groups and government agencies. This study employed a qualitative approach with limited access to respondents, however, broad surveys (qualitative and quantitative) can be used to design future research to validate the finding and the generalization of the push and pull factors across wide regions and demographics.

Comparative research between different regions of Pakistan or between Pakistan and countries facing similar challenges may help in identifying the specific factors that discriminate and those that are typical of radicalisation processes. Such comparative research can offer perspectives and current ideas for global anti-radicalization initiatives. A critical area for further investigation is the regional variation in the drivers of radicalization. Since the context of conflict is varying substantially in Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, merged districts and other urban and rural regions of Pakistan, therefore, grassroot level studies suggest understanding the patterns of political exclusion, poverty, accesses to economic resources and weak institutions which may help to formulate counter-radicalization strategies. Similar studies are suggested for conflict affected regions around the globe.

In addition, there is a need for longitudinal studies to understand trends of radicalization especially in relation to the changing geo-political, political and economic circumstances. Assessing the effectiveness of already existing measures and policies against radicalization can provide the basis for further recommendations and changes.