Can economic profit influence public opinion? Observing generational change on cross-strait relations in Taiwan

Abstract

In the new millennium, the growing economic interdependency across the Taiwan Strait has stretched politico-economic “ambiguity” to the limit. To many observers, the recent bilateral trade pact, the “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement”, was thought to be the preliminary stage for further political integration. If the integration assumptions were correct, closer economic and social relations would have led to closer political integration between Taiwan and Mainland China (Kahler and Kastner, 2006; Kastner 2006a, 2006b). However, this evidently has not happened. This article examines the questions provoked by cross-strait interactions by analyzing the relationship between perceived economic cooperation and political attitudes. Using national security survey data, the article contends that, due to generational difference and lack of spillover effects, economic integration does not lead to a positive attitude toward political integration, but that period and cohort effects may gradually drive change in the future.