The Policy Preferences of Marginal Voters: Complicating Political Polarization in Education Policy

Abstract

Across the nation, political candidates increasingly have engaged publicly with contemporary education issues, in part seeking to attract new voters. Meanwhile, political polarization has grown, including in public opinion regarding controversial education policy topics. In this context, we examine the education policy preferences of marginal voters, those who altered their voting behaviors between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, by applying data representative of U.S. adults and granular data from Missouri’s voters, an increasingly conservative state with an active education policy agenda. Across a wide policy landscape, marginal voter stances stood out consistently only with respect to their opposition of policies limiting curricula related to race and ethnicity. We find little evidence indicating marginal voters vary from stable voters on additional hot-button issues including Critical Race Theory, school choice expansion, and transgender athlete participation. This evidence contributes to growing debate concerning the role of political polarization in contemporary education policy.