Glucose Predictions Improve Glycemic Control: A Digital Twin Evaluation

Abstract

Background:

Glucose predictions aim to empower continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) users by enabling preventive actions to reduce adverse glycemic events. The Accu-Chek^® SmartGuide Predict app offers several AI-enabled predictive features, driven by machine learning algorithms. These include notifications for a low glucose predict within 30 min (LGP) and for nighttime low glucose risk, as well as a 2-h continuous glucose forecast.

Aims:

This study aimed to quantify the potential glycemic benefits of using the Predict app’s predictive features in an adult population with type 1 diabetes (T1D).

Methods:

A comparative in silico study was conducted using the clinically backed University of Virginia Replay digital twin simulator. A control arm, simulating standard hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia mitigation strategies in line with international guidelines, was compared against intervention arms that incorporated probabilistic user behavior models responding to the app’s predictive features. The evaluation was performed on 204 digital twins, representing 29,929 days of data, generated from the REPLACE-BG clinical trial dataset.

Results:

Results demonstrated that using the app’s predictive features has the potential to improve glycemic control in adults with T1D. The simulated intervention led to an average 2.9 percentage point reduction in time below range (<70 mg/dL), and a clinically significant increase of more than 3.6 percentage points in time in range (70–180 mg/dL). Furthermore, the daily number of CGM hypoglycemia alarms (<70 mg/dL) was reduced by 67%. The findings also suggest that consuming 10 g of fast-acting carbohydrates in response to LGP notifications provides an optimal balance, effectively preventing hypoglycemia while limiting rebound hyperglycemia.

Conclusions:

This in silico evaluation provides strong evidence supporting the potential clinical utility of the Accu-Chek SmartGuide Predict app for improving glycemic management in adults with T1D.