The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and European Citizens’ Trust in the Armed Forces: Shaken Not Stirred(?). A Research Note

Abstract

Major, national security-related events such as terrorist attacks, insurgencies, conflict, and war impact citizens’ institutional trust levels since they affect (in)security sentiments and risk perceptions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is universally regarded as an important defining event for European security with wide-ranging and long-lasting repercussions. The present paper contributes to the existing and expanding literature on the effects of invasion by examining how it impacted European citizens’ trust in the armed forces. To this effect, it uses data from two Eurobarometer surveys that were conducted immediately before the invasion and a few months later, while the initial fierce fighting was still underway. The sample comprises 35 countries and a total of 48,049 observations. Findings from logistic regression models and mediation analysis reveal a modest reduction in trust, pointing to an accountability effect, but mediators partially reduce and offset this negative effect.