Echoes of uncertainty: Reimagining complexity of global risks in the shadow of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict

Abstract

This study examines the perception of global risks in Ukraine and Poland in the context of the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Based on cross-sectional survey data, significant differences were found in how respondents from both countries perceive various threats. Ukrainians expressed higher levels of concern across all risk categories, particularly those directly related to the conflict, such as military operations and energy shortages. The results of the principal component analysis (PCA) revealed three distinct factors in Ukraine, indicating a diversified perception of risks, while in Poland, a single factor was identified, suggesting an integrated understanding of threats. These structures can be interpreted through the lens of polycrisis in Ukraine, where different dimensions of risks are seen as interconnected, and metacrisis in Poland, where various risks are viewed as manifestations of a single, overarching crisis structure. The study underscores how geopolitical contexts can shape societal perceptions of threats. It also suggests that the concepts of polycrisis and metacrisis are not only useful theoretical tools for explaining the complexity of contemporary global challenges but also practical frameworks through which individuals reflexively interpret and engage with global risks.