The ratchet theory of government growth hypothesizes that temporary crises cause
government spending to rise and to remain permanently higher than if the crises
had not occurred. An examination of federal government spending in the United
States since 1800 reveals apparent ratchets associated with the Great Depression,
the two world wars, and the Civil War. After taking account of war-related spending
and serial correlation in the data, however, only the World War I and Great
Depression ratchets can be clearly identified, and they are closely associated with
a major change in the underlying growth rate of government spending early in the
20th century. This casts doubt on the ratchet theory of government growth and
instead raises the question of why the trend growth rate of government was so much
greater in the 20th century than in the 19th.