This model was developed to provide a simplified yet systematic approach to the estimation of complex market penetration problems. Specifically, the model permits the decision maker to determine simultaneously the market penetration of several technological innovations, under conditions consisting of (1) multiple market applications for each technological innovation, and (2) numerous competing technologies in each market application. Availability of this type of model is critical in a field such as energy, where an "explosion" of technological ideas into the marketplace appears to be imminent.
BlackmanA.W.Jr. 1974. “The Market Dynamics of Technological Substitutions.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change6:41-63.
2.
DFICondapR.KydesA. S.1979. Modeling Market Penetration With Emphasis on the DFI Energy-Economy System. Upton, N.Y.: Brookhavcn National Laboratory.
3.
DOE staff. 1977. Market Oriented Program Planning Study (MOPPS): Industrial Sector Working Group. ERDA review draft. September30.
4.
HurterA. R.Jr.RubenstemA. H.1978. “Market Penetration by New Innovations: The Technological Literature.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change11: 197-221.
5.
Mitre CorporationRebiboK., 1977. A System for Projecting the Utilization of Renewable Resources; SPURR Methodology. For ERDA (#E 4918 2322), MTR 7570. McLean, Va.: Mitre Corp./Metrek.
6.
PeterkaV.1977. Macrodynamics of Technological Change: Market Penetration by New Technologies. Vienna, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
7.
PhilipsonL. L.1978. “Market Penetration Models for Energy Production Devices and Conservation Techniques.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change11:273-336.
8.
PrestA. R.TurveyR.1965. “Cost Benefit Analysis: A Survey.” Economic Journal75: 685-705.
9.
SRIMeagherP. C.WitnerJ. G.LevineM. D.SchooleyF. A.1978. “Assessing the Potential Contribution of Major Solar Alternatives.” Research paper. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research Institute (SRI).
