The effects of extreme weather events and the resilience of the energy sector have become the subject of regulatory initiatives and ongoing research. We demonstrate the vulnerability of the German power sector to climate change and provide a qualitative and quantitative analysis of emerging risks from two types of extreme weather events: droughts and high temperatures. Our analysis is based on datasets covering temperature and drought data for the last 40 years. We present evidence of a higher frequency of power plant outages as a consequence of droughts and high temperatures. To characterize the vulnerability of the power sector we develop a capacity-adjusted drought index. The results are used to assess the monetary loss of power plant outages due to heatwaves and droughts and losses to consumers due to higher wholesale electricity prices and price volatility. An increasing frequency of such extreme weather events will aggravate the observed problem.
AlizadehM.I.Parsa MoghaddamM.AmjadyN.SianoP.Sheikh-El-EslamiM.K. (2016). “Flexibility in future power systems with high renewable penetration: A review.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews57: 1186-1193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.200.
2.
AlkonAlkonHeXiaogangParisAubrey RLiaoWenyingHodsonThomasWandersNikoWangYaoping (2019). “Water security implications of coal-fired power plants financed through China’s Belt and Road Initiative.” Energy Policy132: 1101-1109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.06.044.
3.
AltvaterSusannede BlockDeboraBouwmaIreneDworakThomasFrelih-LarsenAnaGÖrlachBenjaminHer-melingClaudiaKlostermannJudithKÖnigMartinLeitnerMarkusMarinovaNatashaMcCallumSabineNaumannSandraOsberghausDanielPrutschAndreaReifChristianevan de SandtKajSwartRobJennyTroltzsch (2012). “Adaptation Measures in the EU: Policies, Costs, and Economic Assessment.”
4.
AndaJonGolubAlexanderStrukovaElena (2009). “Economics of climate change under uncertainty: Benefits of flexibility.” Energy Policy37(4): 1345-1355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.034.
5.
BarteletHenryMulderMachiel (2020). “Natural Gas markets in the European Union: Testing Resilience.” Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy9(1). https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.8.2.hbar.
6.
BNA (2019a). Kraftwerksliste, Bestandskraftwerke in Deutschland mit einer elektrischen Netto-Nennleistung von mind-estens 10 MW (Einzelnennung). Available at: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Sachgebiete/ElektrizitaetundGas/Unternehmen_Institutionen/Versorgungssicherheit/Erzeugungskapazitaeten/Kraftwerksliste/kraftwerksliste-node.html [last access10.2020]: Bundesnetzagentur, Federal Network Agency for Electricity, Gas, Telecommunications, Posts and Railway.
7.
BNA (2019b). Quartalsbericht zu Netz- und SystemsicherheitsmaBnahmen Gesamtjahr und Viertes Quartal 2018. Available at: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Allgemeines/Bundesnetzagentur/Publikationen/Berichte/2019/Quartalsbericht_Q4_2018.pdf?_blob=publicationFile&v=4 [last access 10.2020]: Bundesnetzagentur, Federal Network Agency for Electricity, Gas, Telecommunications, Posts and Railway.
8.
BostonAndy (2013). “Delivering a secure electricity supply on a low carbon pathway.” Energy Policy52: 55-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.004.
9.
BurilloDanielChesterMikhail V.PincetlStephanieFournierEric (2019). “Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County.” Energy Policy128: 943-953. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.053.
10.
ByersE.A.HallJ.W.AmezagaJ.M.O’donnellG.M.LeathardA. (2016). “Water and climate risks to power generation with carbon capture and storage.” Environmental Research Letters11: 24011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024011.
11.
ChandramowliShankar N.FelderFrank A. (2014). “Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets—A review of models and forecasts.” Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments5: 62-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2013.11.003.
12.
CieslikWolfgangWodopiaFranz-Josef (2016). Jahresbericht 2015. Fakten und Trends 2015/2016. German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.).
13.
CollinsM.KnuttiR.ArblasterJ.DufresneJ.-L.FichefetT.FriedlingsteinP.GaoX.GutowskiW.J.JohnsT.KrinnerG.ShongweM.TebaldiC.WeaverA.J.WehnerM. (2013). “Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility.” In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by StockerT. F.QinD.PlattnerG.-K.TignorM.AllenS.K.DoschungJ.NauelsA.XiaY.BexV.MidgleyP.M., 1029-1136. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
14.
CookeRogerGolubAlexander (2020). “Market-based methods for monetizing uncertainty reduction.” Environment Systems and Decisions40(1): 3-13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-019-09748-w.
15.
CortekarJörgGrothMarkus (2015). “Adapting energy infrastructure to climate change-Is there a need for government interventions and legal obligations within the German ‘Energiewende’?” Energy Procedia73: 12-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2015.07.552.
16.
CroninJenniferAnandarajahGabrialDessensOlivier (2018). “Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps.” Climatic Change151: 79-93. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2265-4.
17.
DOE/NETL (2008). Water Requirements for Existing and Emerging Thermoelectric Plant Technologies. Department of Energy & National Energy Technology Lab.
18.
EC (2000). Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy. In Official Journal of the European Union. L 327: 1-73.
19.
EC (2008). Council Directive 2008/114/EC on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. In Official Journal of the European Union. L 345: 75-82.
20.
EC (2013). Commission staff working document on a new approach to the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection Making European Critical Infrastructures more secure. SWD(2013) 318 final.
21.
EC (2016a). Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, and the European Investment Bank ‘Clean Energy For All Europeans’. Brussels: European Comission.
22.
EC (2016b). EU reference scenario 2016. Energy, transport and GHG emissions trends to 2050.
23.
EC (2018). Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action, amending Regulations (EC) No 663/2009 and (EC) No 715/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council, Directives 94/22/EC, 98/70/EC, 2009/31/EC, 2009/73/EC, 2010/31/EU, 2012/27/EU and 2013/30/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council, Council Directives 2009/119/EC and (EU) 2015/652 and repealing Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council (Text with EEA relevance.). In Official Journal of the European Union. L 328: 1-77.
24.
EC (2019a). Extent and impacts of the heatwaves in Europe. In JRC MARS Bulletin. Crop monitoring in Europe., edited by Commission European and Joint Research Center. Vol 27 No 6.
25.
EC (2019b). Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 June 2019 on risk-preparedness in the electricity sector and repealing Directive 2005/89/EC (Text with EEA relevance). In Official Journal of the European Union. L 158/1.
26.
Ecofys (2014). Pilot project on availability, use and sustainability of water production of nuclear and fossil energy—Geo-localised inventory of water use in cooling processes, assessment of vulnerability and of water use management measures. End Report. edited by Ecofys.
27.
EDO (2015). Drought News August 2015. In EDO Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), edited by European Drought Observatory (EDO): European Commission—Joint Research Centre.
28.
EDO (2018a). Drought in Central-Northern Europe, September 2018. In EDO Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), edited by European Drought Observatory (EDO): European Commission Joint Research Centre.
29.
EDO (2018b). Heat and Cold Wave Index (HCWI). In EDO Indicator Factsheet, edited by European Drought Observatory (EDO): Copernicus European Drought Observatory (EDO).
30.
ENTSO-E (2015). ENTSO-E General Code Lists for Data Interchange. In Release 29 Issue. Available at: https://eepub-licdownloads.entsoe.eu/clean-documents/EDI/Library/Core/entso-e-code-list-v29r0.pdf [last access 10.2020]: European Network of Transmission System Operators.
31.
ENTSO-E (2018). Transparency platform. Available at: https://transparency.entsoe.eu [last access 10.2020]: European Network of Transmission System Operators.
32.
ENTSO-E (2020). Unavailability of Production and Generation Units. Available at: https://transparency.entsoe.eu [last access 10.2020]: European Network of Transmission System Operators.
33.
EPRI (2004). Comparison of Alternate Cooling Technologies for U.S. Power Plants: Economic, Environmental, and Other Tradeoffs. Palo Alto, CA: Electric Power Research Institute.
34.
FörsterHannahLilliestamJohan (2010). “Modeling thermoelectric power generation in view of climate change.” Regional Environmental Change10(4): 327-338. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-009-0104-x.
35.
ForzieriGiovanniBianchiAlessandraHerreraMario A. Marine SilvaFilipe BatistaLavalleCarloFeyenLuc (2016). Resilience of large investments and critical infrastructures in Europe to climate change In JRC Science for policy report: European Commission.
36.
GhazviniMohammad Ali FotouhiCanizesBrunoValeZitaMoraisHugo (2013). “Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market.” Applied Energy101: 667-677. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.07.009.
37.
GolubAlexanderBrodyMichael (2017). “Uncertainty, climate change, and irreversible environmental effects: application of real options to environmental benefit-cost analysis.” Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences7(4): 519-526. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-017-0436-7.
38.
HagspielSimeonKnautAndreasPeterJakob (2018). “Reliability in multi-regional power systems: Capacity adequacy and the role of interconnectors.” The Energy Journal39(5): 183-204. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.39.5.shag.
39.
HirthLionSchlechtIngmarChristophMaurerTersteegenBernd (2019). Cost- or market-based? Future redispatch procurement in Germany. Conclusions from the project “Beschaffung von Redispatch”. edited by Marco Nicolosi, Christian Nabe and Johannes Hilpert. Commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy: Neue Energieokono-mik (neon), Consentec.
40.
HoffmannBastianHäfeleSebastianKarlUte (2013). “Analysis of performance losses of thermal power plants in Ger-many-A System Dynamics model approach using data from regional climate modelling.” Energy49: 193-203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.034.
41.
IPCC (2018). Global warming of 1.5ଌ. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5ଌ above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. In Masson-Delmotte, edited by V.P Zhai, H.-O. PÖrtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, R. Pidcock C. Pean, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield.
42.
JahnDetlefKorolczukSebastian (2012). “German exceptionalism: the end of nuclear energy in Germany!” Environmental Politics21(1): 159-164. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2011.643374.
43.
KarnieliArnonAgamNuritPinkerRachel T.AndersonMarthaImhoffMarc L.GutmanGarik G.PanovNatalyaGoldbergAlexander (2010). “Use of NDVI and land surface temperature for drought assessment: Merits and limitations.” Journal of climate23(3): 618-633. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2900.1.
44.
KennedyChristopherCorfee-MorlotJan (2013). “Past performance and future needs for low carbon climate resilient infrastructure-An investment perspective.” Energy Policy59: 773-783. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.04.031.
45.
KhanIftekharAlamFirozAlamQuamrul (2013). “The global climate change and its effect on power generation in Bangladesh.” Energy Policy61: 1460-1470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.005.
46.
KornhuberKaiOspreyScottCoumouDimPetriStefanPetoukhovVladimirRahmstorfStefanGrayLesley (2019). “Extreme weather events in early summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern.” Environmental Research Letters14(054002). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab13bf.
47.
KosterRandal D.GuoZhichangYangRongqianDirmeyerPaul A.MitchellKennethPumaMichael J. (2009). “On the nature of soil moisture in land surface models.” Journal of Climate22(16): 4322-4335. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009J-CLI2832.1.
48.
KumarRohiniSamaniegoLuisAttingerSabine (2013). “Implications of distributed hydrologic model parameterization on water fluxes at multiple scales and locations.” Water Resources Research49(1): 360-379. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012195.
49.
LinnerudKristinMideksaTorben K.EskelandGunnar S. (2011). “The impact of climate change on nuclear power supply.” The Energy Journal32(1): 149-168. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No1-6.
50.
LundPeter D.LindgrenJuusoMikkolaJaniSalpakariJyri (2015). “Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews45: 785-807. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.01.057.
51.
MagagnaD.HidalgoGonzalez I.BidoglioG.PetevesS.AdamovicM.BisselinkB.De FeliceM.De RooA.DoratiC.GanoraD.MedaracH.PistocchiA.Van De BundW.VanhamD. Water (2019). Water—Energy Nexus in Europe. In JRC Science for Poilicy Report, edited by Davide Magagna, González I. Hidalgo, G. Bidoglio and S. Peteves. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
52.
Platts (2018). “European Power Daily.” S&P Global20(151).
53.
RinscheidAdrianWüstenhagenRolf (2019). “German voters would prefer a more ambitious timeline to phase out coal.” Nature Energy4(12): 1016-1017. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-019-0509-9.
54.
RiversNicholasShafferBlake (2020). “Stretching the Duck: How rising temperatures will change the level and shape of future electricity consumption.” The Energy Journal41(5): 55-88. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.41.5.nriv.
55.
RÜbbelkeDirkVÖgeleStefan (2011). “Impacts of climate change on European critical infrastructures: The case of the power sector.” Environmental Science & Policy14(1): 53-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2010.10.007.
56.
RÜbbelkeDirkVÖgeleStefan (2013). “Short-term distributional consequences of climate change impacts on the power sector: who gains and who loses?” Climatic Change116(2): 191-206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0498-1.
57.
SamaniegoLuisKumarRohiniAttingerSabine (2010). “Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale.” Water Resources Research46(5): 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007327.
58.
SamaniegoLuisKumarRohiniZinkMatthias (2013). “Implications of parameter uncertainty on soil moisture drought analysis in Germany.” Journal of Hydrometeorology14(1): 47-68. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-075.!.
59.
SchulzeDennisGlowackaAgnieszkaMullerEvelynvan den BornReinout (2018). Winter 2017/18 European End-of-Season Report. edited by Meteogroup.
60.
TetraTech (2002). Evaluation of Cooling System Alternatives Diablo Canyon Power Plant, Revised Draft. Tetra Tech Inc.
61.
TrÖltzschJennyGÖrlachBenjaminLÜckgeHelenPeterMartinSartoriusChristian (2012). Kosten und Nutzen von An-passungsmaBnahmen an den Klimawandel. Analyse von 28 AnpassungsmaBnahmen in Deutschland. In Forschungskenn-zahl 3709 41 121 UBA-FB 001593: Umweltbundesamt.
62.
UmohEdwin A.LuggaAhmad A. (2019). “Contextualizing hazard mitigation policy for electricity grids in the Sudan Sahel Region of Nigeria.” Energy policy124: 135-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.09.038.
63.
Van VlietMichelle T.H.VÜgeleStefanRÜbbelkeDirk (2013). “Water constraints on European power supply under climate change: impacts on electricity prices.” Environmental Research Letters8(3): 035010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035010.
64.
Van VlietMichelle T.H.WibergDavidLeducSylvainRiahiKeywan (2016). “Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources.” Nature Climate Change6(4): 375-380. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2903.
65.
Van VlietMichelle T.H.YearsleyJohn R.LudwigFulcoVÖgeleStefanLettenmaierDennis P.KabatPavel (2012). “Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change.” Nature Climate Change2(9): 676-681. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1546.
66.
VVA (2018). Study on the quality of electricity market data of transmission system operators, electricity supply disruptions, and their impact on the European electricity markets. In Copenhagen Economics, Neon, Deloitte. European Comission.
67.
WoermanMatt (2019). “Market size and market power: Evidence from the Texas electricity market.” Energy Institute Working Paper 298.
68.
ZeileisAchimLeischFriedrichHornikKurtKleiberChristian (2001). “strucchange. An R package for testing for structural change in linear regression models.” https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v007.i02.
ZeileisAchimShahAjayPatnaikIla (2010b). “Testing, monitoring, and dating structural changes in exchange rate regimes.” Computational Statistics & Data Analysis54(6): 1696-1706. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2009.12.005.
71.
ZinkM.SamaniegoL.KumarR.ThoberS.MaiJ.SchaferD.MarxA. (2016). “The German drought monitor.” Environmental Research Letters11(7): 074002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074002.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
