This paper analyzes the variables and weights that constitute the tourism climate indices. It examines how incorporating a new sub-index reflecting the probability of extreme weather events significantly enhances the seasonal alignment between the climate index and tourism demand in the Caribbean region. Using 31 countries as case studies, the tourism climate index and the holiday climate index are investigated in comparison to a new climate index that includes hurricane probability. The results show that the introduction of the probability of a hurricane represents a significant improvement in the index when accounting for the seasonal behavior of tourism demand. The findings are crucial for predicting the specific impacts of climate change on tourism and are also valuable for guiding the development of short- and medium-term policies aimed at mitigating the effects of extreme weather events in the region.
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