Modelling and forecasting alpine skier visits

Abstract

This study is the first to examine formally what drives variations in skier attendance at Norwegian ski resorts. The authors use a unique data set of the number of daily visitors at a specific ski resort from 2007/2008 to 2013/2014. The main findings suggest that weather conditions, day of the week and holidays significantly affect the number of daily visitors. The time series regression analysis highlights the demand pattern and specific non-linear relationships between visitors and wind chill temperature. The study finds that, if the wind chill temperature is below −9.5°C, a temperature increase has a positive effect on the number of daily visitors. Similarly, if the wind chill temperature is above −9.5°C, a higher temperature leads to a lower number of skier visits, on average. Tourism providers can use these results for decision-making, planning and managing ski resort operations. In addition, the findings could serve as an incentive to implement innovative pricing tactics.