Risk group assessment based on the demands of important consumers with standby electric source

Abstract

Consumers equipped with standby electric source will become electricity providers at particular moments in the future smart grid. From the perspective of smart grid risk management, this paper concludes the supply risk factors that may lead to the dissatisfaction of consumer demands for security, quality and benefit, which are further classified to supply risk elements. Then the mapping relations between supply risks and consumer demands is established. For the risk assessment problem involving consumer demands and power supply risk, a risk assessment model based on catastrophe theory and 2-tuple linguistic representation is proposed. Firstly, the experts’ linguistic variables are converted to 2-tuples linguistics, and catastrophe theory expands operations from real numbers to linguistic variables. Secondly, combining the expert subjective weights in the form of linguistic, a compromised weighting method based on similarity and deviation is proposed. Subsequently, the ranking results are obtained according to the total catastrophe 2-tuple linguistic value of each supply risk element. The ranking results are helpful for power supply companies to identify important risks and develop risk aversion strategies. At last, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is proved by contrastive analysis. Therefore, the study could provide reference for future smart grid risk management.