Abstract
Peace on Earth depends on the absence of war in space. If antisatellite or space warfare testing were to resume after a hiatus of 20 years, divisions within the U.N. Security Council and between the United States and its allies would sharpen, greatly increasing global tensions and making proliferation harder to stop and reverse.
No weapons have ever been deployed in space, nor has any satellite ever been destroyed as a result of space warfare. The United States and Soviet Union conducted occasional flight-tests of antisatellite weapons during the Cold War, but both superpowers had the wisdom not to push this envelope. Consequently, space has long been utilized for military purposes–notably, through observation, communication, and navigation satellites–while remaining a zone free of weapons.
Maintaining this distinction is crucial. If the eyes and ears of nuclear-armed states are threatened, they might compensate by initiating, maintaining, or increasing hair-trigger alert rates. Alternatively, they might add to their nuclear arsenals. Space weapons would sharpen the razor's edge of nuclear danger.
The arguments against space weapons have never been stronger. More and more countries have a stake in satellites that support commercial, civil, military, and governmental activities. Direct broadcast and communication satellites have become essential support systems for promoting freedom. The lifesaving qualities of satellites–for humanitarian and medical assistance, economic betterment, emergency services, search and rescue, reducing collateral damage, and assisting military forces in harm's way–have never been clearer. Initiatives that place satellites at risk place countless lives at risk.
No nation has more to lose by weaponizing space than the United States, and no nation has more to gain by reinforcing current restraints. Far from being inevitable, as U.S. space hawks contend, the political and diplomatic barriers against weaponizing Earth orbits are growing stronger with every passing year as countries become more invested in space. Common sense, national security, economic interests, public safety, international law, and customary international practice all reinforce the deep and widely held belief that the sanctuary of space should not be turned into a shooting gallery.
So how can we best reinforce current practices that allow satellites to save countless lives and keep our fractious planet connected? The old-fashioned way would be to negotiate an international convention at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, where more than 60 countries possess a veto over the beginning, contents, and conclusion of a treaty negotiation. The end result–if nominally successful–would entail many compromises and then require many countries to ratify the treaty before it entered into force. Assuming that all of these hurdles could be crossed, any uncomfortably stringent provisions might then be watered down further through implementation procedures.
A less complex approach is now required–one that has already proven its worth in setting rules of the road for naval, ground, and air forces operating in close proximity. A code of conduct signed by Washington and Moscow in 1972 helped to keep the Cold War from becoming hot by establishing guidelines to prevent collisions and other incidents at sea. More than 30 other navies subsequently signed similar agreements. As the Cold War was ending, Washington and Moscow signed a companion agreement to prevent dangerous military activities, including the harmful use of lasers. A code of conduct for space could include provisions for avoiding collisions and dangerous maneuvers in space, creating special caution and safety areas around satellites, prohibiting simulated attacks and antisatellite tests in space, and providing reassurance through information exchanges, transparency, and notification measures.
Such executive agreements have the same legal standing as treaties but are far simpler than a negotiation in Geneva. All that is required is for two responsible space-faring nations to start the ball rolling and create a model code of conduct for space that others could emulate.