Abstract
To comply with the START ii ban on MIRVs (multiple independently tar-getable reentry vehicles), each Min-uteman will have the number of warheads it carries reduced from three to one. Some have been “downloaded” already. Eventually, all Minuteman missiles will carry one warhead and the MX will be retired. Currently, 300 have the higher yield W78 warhead and 200 have the W62 warhead. While several de-MIRVing options are possible, the air force has begun to place the Mark 21/W87 warhead on some Minuteman missiles. Up to 500 W87s will be removed from the 50 MX missiles slated for retirement. The W87 has preferred safety features, including insensitive high explosive, a fire resistant pit, and an enhanced nuclear detonation system (ENDS). The W78 has ENDSonly.
A drawback of this option is the difficulty of putting multiple warheads back on the missiles should the force be reconstituted. A second option would be to use a single W78 on each missile. A third would be to put W78s on a portion of the force—perhaps 150 of the 500 missiles—and W87s on the rest. This choice would use the newer warhead and permit easier remirving. Previously, the downloading was to have been accomplished within seven years of the entry into force of STARTi, by December 5, 2001. Under new protocols, it does not have to be completed until the end of 2007.
In March 1997 Presidents Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin agreed to adjust some of the timetables for elimination and deactivation. The protocols extend the implementation period from the beginning of 2003 to the end of 2007. However, all delivery vehicles that are to be eliminated will have to be deactivated by the end of 2003 through the removal of warheads or by some other jointly agreed method.
In compliance with the START Tr eaty, silo destruction has been completed at Ellsworth AFB, South Dakota, and Whiteman AFB, Missouri, both of which deployed Minuteman II ICBMs. On November 29, 1999, the Minuteman Missile National Historic Site became a unit of the National Park Service. Preserved are the Delta 1 and Delta 9 launch facilities near Wall, South Dakota.
Destruction of the 150 Minuteman III launch facilities and the 15 missile alert facilities (with underground launch control centers) at Grand Forks AFB began last year. The first silo— near Langdon, North Dakota, about five miles from the Canadian border— was blown up on October 6, 1999. Fourteen had been destroyed by mid-December 1999. The entire process should be complete by December 1, 2001.
Each Minuteman or MX missile on alert is maintained in an unmanned, hardened, underground launch facility approximately 80 feet deep and 12 feet in diameter, covered by a 100-ton blast door that is blown just before the missile is launched. A support building buried near the launch tube contains environmental control equipment and standby power sources. An electronic surveillance system detects intruders.
The missiles are deployed in “circular” flights of 10 missiles controlled by a single, centrally located launch control center (LCC) manned by a missile combat crew. The LCC contains the equipment needed to control and monitor the missile and launch facility. The LCCs are located at least 14 miles apart and are buried 40 to 100 feet below grade. The missile-alert facilities on the surface include living quarters, and support equipment and personnel. Each squadron is arranged in five flights, all redundantly interconnected by a buried, hardened cable network which connects them with the LCCs. Each center continually monitors the operational status and security of its 10 missiles and has the capability to control, monitor, and launch all 50 missiles in the squadron. Launch, if directed, must be commanded by at least two different LCCs in the squadron or by the airborne launch control center aboard an EC-135.
A three-part program to upgrade Minuteman missiles continues. First, the missile-alert facilities have been updated with Rapid Execution and Combat Targeting (REACT) consoles. Second, the “Guidance Replacement Program” will extend the life of the guidance system beyond the year 2020 and improve Minuteman III accuracy to near that of the current MX—a circular error probable of 100 meters. Third, the “Propulsion Replacement Program,” involves “repouring” the first and second stages of the missile, incorporating the latest solid propel-lant and bonding technologies, and replacing obsolete or environmentally unsafe materials and components. The first remanufactured Minuteman III missile was launched successfully from Vandenberg AFB to the Kwajalein Missile Range in the Pacific Ocean on November 13. In an effort to save money the air force has transferred responsibility for maintaining readiness to TRW, Inc., a private contractor, which was awarded a 15-year, $3.4 billion contract on December 22, 1997.
Eighteen Ohio-class submarines constitute the current ballistic missile (SSBN) fleet. The four newest SSBNs based at Bangor, Washington—the Alaska, Nevada, Jackson, and Alabama—will be configured to fire Trident II missiles. The first to be reconfigured, the Alaska, is scheduled to enter the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard soon for overhaul and conversion.
First bomber number reflects total inventory. Second bomber number is “primary mission” number which excludes trainers and spares. Bombers are loaded in a variety of ways depending on mission. B-2s do not carry alcms or acms. The first 16 B-2s initially carried only the B83. Eventually, all 21 bombers will be able to carry both B61 and B83 bombs. B53 bombs have been retired and were replaced with B61 -11 s.
In a significant development, the navy recently extended the service life of the Tridents to 42 years.
To comply with the 1994 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which recommended retiring four older SSBNs, the navy has removed the four oldest sub-marines—the Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Georgia—from nuclear duty. But two—or possibly all four—may be converted to carry cruise missiles and to be used for special operations. Twenty-two of their launch tubes would be converted to carry up to 154 land-attack cruise missiles; the two remaining tubes would be modified to carry special ops vehicles. Initially the missiles would be Tomahawks, but standard land-attack missiles or the navy's tactical missile might be used later.
START I allowed a special dispensation for two “Poseidon” submarines. If the navy wants to replace those two with Tridents it would have to be agreed upon in a future treaty. A navy study completed in early 1999 concluded that the substantial cost and the treaty implications might prevent replacement.
The navy purchased 12 Trident II SLBMs in the FY 2000 budget, and 12 more were requested in the FY 2001 budget. The NPT called for backfitting four Trident I-equipped SSBNs with Trident IIs and increasing the number of missiles to be procured from 390 to 425. Twenty-eight additional missiles were bought for research and development. The total cost of the program is about $27 billion, or $60 million per missile. Through FY 2000, nearly $24 billion has been authorized. Some have questioned the need to continue to buy more missiles if the force under START III is going to be less than 14 submarines. A force of 10 submarines, for example, would require 347 missiles, which would result in significant savings.
The Bangor base will undergo some adaptation to support the Trident II, and a 10-year, $5 billion program is scheduled to begin next year. The backfitting of the four SSBNs will take place from 2000 to 2005. Beginning in 2002 three submarines will be shifted from Kings Bay to Bangor to balance the 14-sub-marine fleet. To comply with START II, the navy will have to download missiles, retire more subs, or both. Under the new timetable, by the end of 2004 SLBMs can carry no more than 2,160 warheads, and no more than 1,750 warheads by the end of 2007. If there is a START III with limits of 2,000-2,500 deployed strategic warheads, the navy's portion would likely account for approximately half. This would mean a fleet of 10 to 12 submarines, depending on the number of warheads per missile. Some speculate that with a fleet of a dozen or less, the Bangor base could be closed, though war planners object, saying China could not be adequately targeted.
While much has changed, some things have not. Each SSBN still has a “Blue” crew and a “Gold” crew. The SSBN force operates on a 112-day cycle with a 77-day patrol followed by a 35-day refit period. At any given time, nine or 10 U.S. SSBNs—or about 50 percent of the fleet—are on patrol, the same percentage rate as at the height of the Cold War. Roughly half the subs on patrol (two or three in each ocean) are on “hard” alert—within range of their targets. The remaining patrolling SSBNs are in transit to or from their launch-point areas and could reach hard alert within a matter of hours or days.
Although START counts eight warheads per Trident missile, the actual loading of a submarine is normally less than the full complement of 192 per boat. A missile's range can be extended if it carries fewer warheads. Some missiles may have five or six warheads; others have seven or eight. The Single Integrated Operation Plan—the U.S. nuclear war plan—ultimately determines how a SSBN will be loaded, where the SLBMs will be launched from, and what targets the warheads are aimed at.
The NPR recommended retaining 66 B-52Hs, but the air force decided on a higher number. The air force plans to reduce the total number to 76 in FY 2001. The B-52Hs have been consolidated at two bases, the 2nd Bomb Wing at Barksdale AFB, Louisiana, and the 5th Bomb Wing at Minot AFB, North Dakota. The first figure in the “number deployed” column in the chart on page 70 is the total number of B-52Hs in the inventory, including those assigned to training, test, and backup. The second figure is the “primary aircraft inventory,” the operational number available for nuclear and conventional missions.
Under START II, B-1Bs will not be counted as nuclear weapon carriers. Their conversion to conventional missions has already been completed. By the end of 1997 all B-1Bs were out of the strategic war plan altogether. (Of the original 100 B-1Bs, six have crashed.)
The first B-2 bomber was delivered to the 509th Bombardment Wing at Whiteman AFB on December 17, 1993. The wing has two squadrons, the 393rd and the 325th. The 393rd was declared operational on April 1, 1997. The 325th was activated on January 8, 1998. By the end of 1995, eight B-2s had arrived at Whiteman. Five were delivered in 1996, four in 1997, two in 1998, and one in 1999, bringing the total to 20. An additional aircraft from the test program is being modified to achieve operational capability, which will bring the total number to 21. During eight years of test flights, from July 1989 to the end of June 1997, six aircraft flew approximately 975 missions totaling some 5,000 hours.
The B-2 is configured to carry various combinations of nuclear and conventional munitions. The first 16 planes are “Block 10” versions, able to carry the B83 nuclear bomb (and the Mk 84 conventional bomb). These were followed by “Block 20” versions, able to carry the B61 bomb. The last two planes, “Block 30” versions, are able to carry both types of nuclear bombs and an assortment of conventional bombs, munitions, and missiles. Block 10 and 20 planes are being upgraded to Block 30 standards at the factory in Palmdale, California. Originally scheduled to be completed in 2000, the upgrade schedule will stretch to 2002 as a result of additional work.
An ample supply of tactical bombs are available for the U.S. F-16A/B/C/D Fighting Falcon, F-15E Strike Eagle, F-117A Nighthawk, and for NATO-allied air force planes, including F-16s and Tornado fighter-bombers. It is estimated that approximately 150 bombs are deployed at 10 air bases in seven European NATO nations. The bases include: Kleine Brogel, Belgium; Buechel, Germany; Ramstein, Germany; Spangdahlem, Germany; Arax-os, Greece; Aviano, Italy; Ghedi-Torre, Italy; Volkel, Netherlands; In-cirlik, Turkey; and RAF Lakenheath in Britain. In the United States significant numbers of B-61s are stored at air force bases in Nevada and New Mexico.