Marketing affects customer behavior, and customer behavior in turn drives a firm's cash flows and, ultimately, valuation. In this sequence of relationships, a commonly overlooked factor by marketers is the volatility of customers' cash flows. This study links different recurring customer behaviors to the future level and volatility of a customer's cash flows. Empirical analyses of the large customer database of a Fortune 500 retailer reveal that a 1% desired change in the different types of recurring customer behaviors corresponds to a future quarterly 4.61% decrease in the cash flow volatility and $39.42 million increase in the future cash flow level of the firm. Furthermore, firm-initiated marketing is 1.9–3.2 times more effective at managing the future cash flow level and volatility when it is selectively targeted to customers with certain characteristics. Overall, the study enables marketers to manage different customer behaviors that influence customers' future cash flow level and volatility and ultimately quantify the impact of these behaviors on the shareholder value of the firm.
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