Extreme weather events have been closely associated with the escalation of violent conflicts. This article introduces empirical evidence that underscores the vulnerability of conflict emergence to extended deficit rainfall values within Maguindanao, a province situated in the Bangsamoro region of the southern Philippines. Using a combination of satellite data, hydrological analysis and an examination of conflict databases, our study unveils the pivotal role played by protracted droughts and intensified precipitation in fostering human insecurity, consequently elevating the likelihood of violent conflicts. Our research spotlights the climate–conflict nexus within this relatively less-explored geographical area. Our findings underscore a robust association between instances of violent conflicts, protracted deficits or episodes of intense rainfall, and the subsequent surge in food prices. Notably, disruptions in food prices align temporally with heightened participation in violent conflicts by individuals. In essence, the emergence of violent conflicts exacerbates fragility, thereby engendering a vicious cycle that intertwines climate change, conflict dynamics and the pursuit of peace.
AbinalesP. N.AmorosoD. J. (2017). State and Society in the Philippines. Rowman & Littlefield.
2.
AbrahamsD. (2019). From discourse to policy: US policy communities’ perceptions of and approaches to climate change and security. Conflict, Security & Development, 19(4), 323–345.
3.
AbrahamsD. (2020). Conflict in abundance and peacebuilding in scarcity: Challenges and opportunities in addressing climate change and conflict. World Development, 132, 104998.
4.
AcheampongA. O.DzatorJ.AbunyewahM.Erdiaw-KwasieM. O.OpokuE. E. O. (2023). Sub-Saharan Africa’s tragedy: Resource curse, democracy and income inequality. Social Indicators Research, 168, 471–509.
Ayeb-KarlssonS.Van der GeestK.AhmedI.HuqS.WarnerK. (2016). A people-centred perspective on climate change, environmental stress, and livelihood resilience in Bangladesh. Sustainability Science, 11(4), 679–694.
7.
BakkerK.KooyM.ShofianiN. E.MartijnE. J. (2015). Institutional bricolage: How urban water systems adapt to change. In ConcaK.WeinthalE. (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of water politics and policy (pp. 1–24). Oxford University Press.
8.
BamideleO. (2013). Corruption, conflict and sustainable development in African states. The African Symposium: An Online Journal of the African Educational Research Network, 13(1), 42–54.
BasconcilloJ.MoonI. J. (2021). Recent increase in the occurrences of Christmas typhoons in the Western North Pacific. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 1–10.
11.
BenjaminsenT. A. (2021). Climate change and human conflict in the Sahel. In VillalonL. A. (Ed.), The Oxford handbook of the African Sahel (pp. 269–284). Oxford University Press.
12.
BenjaminsenT. A.SvarstadH. (2021). Climate change, scarcity and conflicts in the Sahel. In BenjaminsenT. A.SvarstadH. (Eds.), Political ecology (pp. 183–205). Palgrave Macmillan.
13.
BhandariB. S.GrantM. (2007). Analysis of livelihood security: A case study in the Kali-Khola watershed of Nepal. Journal of Environmental Management, 85(1), 17–26.
14.
BrzoskaM.FröhlichC. (2016). Climate change, migration, and violent conflict: Vulnerabilities, pathways and adaptation strategies. Migration and Development, 5(2), 190–210.
15.
BugtayL. P. G.de la RosaN. P. C.GulaneJ. T. (Eds.) (2019). Conflict alert 2019: War makes states. International Alert Philippines.
16.
BuisanN. A.RoxasA. T. (2021). The productivity and profitability of marshland farming system: The case of Ligawasan Marsh in Maguindanao. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 837(1), 012004.
17.
CanceranD. C. (2016). Justice in the Mamasapano tragedy: Beyond the logic of right and peace discourses. Philippine Sociological Review, 64, 157–167.
18.
CastroG. M. (2013). The Philippines action plan to combat desertification, land degradation, drought and poverty. Combating Desertification in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, pp. 303–321. Springer, Dordrecht.
19.
ChambersR.ConwayG. (1992). Sustainable rural livelihoods: practical concepts for the 21st century. Institute of Development Studies.
20.
ChandraA.McNamaraK. E.DarguschP.CaspeA. M.DalabajanD. (2017). Gendered vulnerabilities of smallholder farmers to climate change in conflict-prone areas: A case study from Mindanao, Philippines. Journal of Rural Studies, 50, 45–59.
21.
CroissantA.EschenauerT.KamerlingJ. (2012). Why do some armed groups agree to demobilize? Evidence from the Philippines. Journal of Peace Research, 49(5), 701–715.
22.
De CastroR. C. (2019). The chronic threat of insurgent groups in the Philippines. In SchreerB.TanA. T. H. (Eds.), Terrorism and Insurgency in Asia (pp. 147–160). Routledge.
23.
DelesT. Q.SchoofsS.LaraF.dela RosaN. P.QuitorianoE. L.Cagoco-GuiamR.KamlianJ. A. (2013). Out of the shadows: Violent conflict and the real economy of Mindanao. International Alert.
24.
DelinaL. L.Cagoco-GuiamR. (2018). Extreme weather event–social conflict nexus in the Philippines. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 13(1), 90–95.
25.
DelinaL. L.LudoviceN. P. P.GaviolaJ.Cagoco-GuiamR. (2023). Living with climate and state fragility in a “chaotic paradise:” Securitising livelihoods in the Philippines’ Cotabato River Basin. Climate Risk Management, 42, 100558.
26.
DjoudiH.BrockhausM.LocatelliB. (2013). Once there was a lake: Vulnerability to environmental changes in northern Mali. Regional Environmental Change, 13(3), 493–508.
27.
DodsonJ. C.DérerP.CafaroP.GötmarkF. (2020). Population growth and climate change: Addressing the overlooked threat multiplier. Science of the Total Environment, 748, 141346.
28.
EderJ. F. (2010). Ethnic differences, Islamic consciousness, and Muslim social integration in the Philippines. Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, 30(3), 317–332.
29.
EngelbrechtG. (2021). The logics of insurgency in the Bangsamoro. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 32(6), 887–912.
30.
FallarcunaB.PerezG. J. (2016). Forest cover dynamics in the Philippines from LandSAT-derived global forest cover dataset. Journal of the Philippine Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society, 2, 1–17.
31.
FernandezL.OlfindoR. (2011). Overview of the Philippines’ conditional cash transfer program: The Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (Pantawid Pamilya). Philippine Social protection Note 2. May 2011. The World Bank Group.
32.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2015). Climate change and food security risks and responses. Rome.
33.
Gonzales-EsmeroD. B.GuinessP. (2013). Farming tenants’ survival strategies in Maguindanao [Philippines]: An ethnographic study. Philippine Journal of Crop Science (Philippines). 38(1), 48–49.
34.
HallR. A. (2022). Between legal and legit: Local security arrangements between state security actors and irregular forces in Bangsamoro region, Philippines. In YasutomiA.HallR. A.KibaS. (Eds.), Pathways for irregular forces in Southeast Asia (pp. 114–134). Routledge.
HartwellC.HorvathR.HorvathovaE.PopovaO. (2022). Natural resources and income inequality in developed countries: Synthetic control method evidence. Empirical Economics, 62, 297–338.
37.
HerbertS. (2019). Conflict analysis of the Philippines. GSDRC, University of Birmingham.
38.
HindsR. (2015). Economic growth and fragility (GSDRC Helpdesk Research Report 1214). GSDRC, University of Birmingham.
39.
IkhuosoO. A.AdegbeyeM. J.ElghandourM. M. Y.MelladoM.Al-DobaibS. N.SalemA. Z. M. (2020). Climate change and agriculture: The competition for limited resources amidst crop farmers-livestock herding conflict in Nigeria-a review. Journal of Cleaner Production, 272, 123104.
40.
International Alert. (2018). War and Identity.
41.
KhanifA.HooiK. Y. (Eds.). (2022). Marginalisation and human rights in Southeast Asia. Taylor & Francis.
42.
KingA. D.KarolyD. J.van OldenborghG. J. (2016). Climate change and El Niño increase likelihood of Indonesian heat and drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S113–S117.
43.
KoubiV. (2019). Climate change and conflict. Annual Review of Political Science, 22, 343–360.
44.
LavaletteM. (2018). The Marawi siege and its aftermath: The continuing threat of violent extremism and the urgent need for rehabilitation and social healing. Asian Affairs, 49(2), 221–239.
45.
LengS.HueteA.CleverlyJ.YuQ.ZhangR.WangQ. (2022). Spatiotemporal variations of dryland vegetation phenology revealed by satellite-observed fluorescence and greenness across the North Australian Tropical Transect. Remote Sensing, 14(13), 2985.
46.
MacapagalM. E. J.MontielC. J.CanudayJ. J. P. (2018). The unifying and divisive effects of social identities: Religious and ethnopolitical identities among Mindanao Muslims in the Philippines. Journal of Pacific Rim Psychology, 12, E28.
47.
Magnus TheisenO. (2008). Blood and soil? Resource scarcity and internal armed conflict revisited. Journal of Peace Research, 45(6), 801–818.
48.
MajulC. A. (1988). The Moro struggle in the Philippines. Third World Quarterly, 10, 897–922.
49.
Martin-ShieldsC. P.StojetzW. (2019). Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict. World Development, 119, 150–164.
50.
MbayeA. A. (2020). Climate change, livelihoods, and conflict in the Sahel. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, 21, 12–20.
51.
MenaR.BrownS.PetersL. E.KelmanI.JiH. (2022). Connecting disasters and climate change to the humanitarian-development-peace nexus. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 17(3), 324–340.
52.
MendeloffD. (2004). Truth-seeking, truth-telling, and postconflict peacebuilding: Curb the enthusiasm?. International Studies Review, 6(3), 355–380.
53.
MendozaR. U.OlfindoR.MaalaC. R. (2017). Spatial disparities and poverty: The case of three provinces in the Philippines. In BatabyalA.NijkampP. (Eds.), Regional growth and sustainable development in Asia (pp. 23–40). Springer.
OCHA. (2015). Philippines: Mindanao floods situation report No. 2 (as of 18 August 2015). OCHA.
56.
OCHA. (2019). Philippines: Maguindanao floods situation report No. 1 (as of 12 December 2019). OCHA.
57.
OretaJ. S. (2022). The gray zone of irregular forces: Politically sanctioned, local defense, and organised crime groups in the Philippines. In YasutomiA.HallR. A.KibaS. (Eds.), Pathways for irregular forces in Southeast Asia (pp. 93–113). Routledge.
RifaiS. W.LiS.MalhiY. (2019). Coupling of El Niño events and long-term warming leads to pervasive climate extremes in the terrestrial tropics. Environmental Research Letters, 14(10), 105002.
62.
RossM. L. (2015). What have we learned about the resource curse?. Annual Review of Political Science, 18, 239–259.
SchillingJ.OpiyoF. E.ScheffranJ. (2012). Raiding pastoral livelihoods: Motives and effects of violent conflict in north-western Kenya. Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice, 2(1), 1–16.
65.
SchleussnerC. F.DongesJ. F.DonnerR. V.SchellnhuberH. J. (2016). Armed conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalised countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(33), 9216–9221.
66.
ShahM. I.ShuaibuM. S.AbdulKareemH. K.KhanZ.AbbasS. (2023). Inequality consequences of natural resources, environmental vulnerability, and monetary-fiscal stability: A global evidence. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(4), 10329–10345.
67.
SidelJ. T. (2014). Achieving reforms in oligarchical democracies: The role of leadership and coalitions in the Philippines. (Research Paper, 27). Developmental Leadership Program.
68.
SnorekJ.StarkJ.TerasawaK. (2014). Climate change and conflict in the Sahel: A policy brief on findings from Niger and Burkina Faso. USAID.
69.
Söderberg KovacsM.HöglundK.JiménezM. (2021). Autonomous peace? The Bangsamoro Region in the Philippines beyond the 2014 agreement. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 16(1), 55–69.
70.
StringerL. C.MirzabaevA.BenjaminsenT. A.HarrisR. M.JafariM.LissnerT. K.StevensN.Tirado-von Der PahlenC. (2021). Climate change impacts on water security in global drylands. One Earth, 4(6), 851–864.
71.
TaniguchiM. (2022). Adapting from outsider to insider mediation in the Bangsamoro peace process, Southern Philippines. In de ConingC.et al. (Eds.), Adaptive mediation and conflict resolution (pp. 111–136). Palgrave Macmillan.
72.
The Asia Foundation. (2005). Conflict management program in the Philippines. USAID.
73.
TheisenO. M.GleditschN. P.BuhaugH. (2013). Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?Climatic Change, 117(3), 613–625.
TolentinoP. L. M.PoortingaA.KanamaruH.KeesstraS.MaroulisJ.DavidC. P. C.RitsemaC. J. (2016). Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines. PLoS One, 11(10), e0163941.
UvinP. (2002). The development/peacebuilding nexus: A typology and history of changing paradigms. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, 1(1), 5–24.
79.
VescoP.DasguptaS.De CianE.CarraroC. (2020). Natural resources and conflict: A meta-analysis of the empirical literature. Ecological Economics, 172, 106633.
80.
VescoP.KovacicM.MistryM.CroicuM. (2021). Climate variability, crop, and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production. Journal of Peace Research, 58(1), 98–113.
ZengJ.ZhangR.QuY.BentoV. A.ZhouT.LinY.WuX.QiJ.ShuiW.WangQ. (2022). Improving the drought monitoring capability of VHI at the global scale via ensemble indices for various vegetation types from 2001 to 2018. Weather and Climate Extremes, 35, 100412.
