The influence of the Ukraine war on threat perceptions and security dynamics in the Western Balkans

Abstract

This paper explores how the Russian-Ukrainian war has influenced threat perceptions and security strategies in the Western Balkans, a region historically shaped by internal vulnerabilities and external geopolitical pressures. Focusing on states such as Kosovo, Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the study employs a qualitative approach, combining in-depth analysis of national security documents, political rhetoric and expert commentary, complemented by descriptive public opinion data to trace evolving threat perceptions across the Western Balkans. The findings reveal a fragmented security landscape marked by historical grievances, geopolitical rivalries and the emergence of non-traditional threats like cybercrime, hybrid warfare and environmental degradation. Pro-Western states, including Kosovo, Montenegro and Albania, increasingly align with NATO and the EU to counter perceived Russian aggression, while Serbia maintains close ties with Moscow to balance against Western influence. Grounded in Barry Buzan’s multidimensional security framework and Stephen Walt’s balance of threat theory, the analysis highlights the interplay between historical legacies, economic vulnerabilities and external geopolitical dynamics. This study addresses a critical gap in the literature by systematically examining the evolution of threat perceptions in the Western Balkans, offering valuable insights into the region’s complex security environment amidst global tensions.