Abstract
Based on data from the 2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study investigates the determinants of delayed first marriage from a gendered perspective. Incorporating individual-, family-, and regional-level variables, we employ OLS and interaction models to assess how educational attainment, parental background, and regional context affect men and women differently in their timing of first marriage. Results show that higher education is significantly associated with delayed marriage, particularly for women. The effect of paternal education is also more pronounced among daughters than sons. In addition, urban residency and living in economically developed regions are linked to later marriage, especially among women. These findings demonstrate how gender intersects with structural and familial factors to shape marriage timing, highlighting the role of education and regional opportunity in transforming traditional gendered life-course expectations. The study contributes to demographic and gender research by documenting how modernization and shifting gender norms reshape family formation patterns in contemporary China.
Plain Language Summary
In recent decades, many people in China have been getting married later than before. This study explores what influences the timing of first marriage, with a special focus on the different experiences of men and women. Using data from a large national survey in 2020, the research examines how education levels, parents’ background, and where people live affect when they marry. The results show that people with higher education tend to delay marriage, and this effect is stronger for women. Daughters whose fathers have more education also tend to marry later. In addition, living in cities or in more developed regions is associated with later marriage, especially for women. These findings suggest that marriage decisions are shaped not only by personal choice but also by family influences, gender roles, and regional conditions. Education and access to better opportunities are important in changing traditional ideas about when people should marry. The study helps us understand how social changes are reshaping family life in modern China.
Introduction
Marriage constitutes a fundamental social institution that not only marks a major transition in individual life trajectories but also mirrors prevailing cultural values, social expectations, and demographic trends (Becker, 1973). In recent decades, global fertility rates have declined and population aging has intensified, contributing to notable shifts in demographic patterns. One prominent trend observed across both developed and developing countries is the steady rise in the age at first marriage. While this trend is partly driven by economic growth and improved access to education, it also reflects deeper transformations in social structures, cultural norms, and institutional frameworks (Esteve et al., 2020; Sobotka & Castro-Martín, 2019). These transformations are particularly evident in East Asian societies.
Similar trends have been documented in other East Asian societies, where marriage postponement began earlier and has become even more pronounced. In Japan, the average age at first marriage has risen above 31 for men and 29 for women, reflecting entrenched labor-market rigidity and persistent gendered expectations in family roles (Raymo et al., 2015; Tsuya, 2020). South Korea exhibits comparable patterns, with delayed marriage closely linked to rising educational attainment, expanding female employment, and limited work–family support (Kim & Park, 2019). These regional parallels situate China within a broader East Asian context and, as developments that embody both shared demographic mechanisms and country-specific institutional conditions, serve as a meaningful reference point for understanding the Chinese context.
Against this regional backdrop, China mirrors this global trajectory. China mirrors this global trajectory. In 2020, the average age at first marriage reached 28.67 years, with men marrying at 29.38 and women at 27.95 (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2021). Recent analyses confirm a continued postponement, particularly among younger female cohorts (Feng, 2025), and situate China within the framework of the second demographic transition (Yu & Xie, 2022). Importantly, delayed marriage in China exhibits a clear gender gap: men and women respond differently to similar socioeconomic conditions, partly due to structural constraints such as the rural marriage squeeze (Yang & Li, 2023). Theoretical frameworks help explain these disparities. Economic theory highlights how rising educational attainment, especially among women, raises the opportunity cost of early marriage (Becker, 1973), while gender role theory underscores how persistent expectations assign different responsibilities to men and women (Eagly, 1987). Recent research further demonstrates that women’s educational gains have amplified marriage delays and reshaped partner selection, while men continue to be evaluated in terms of economic stability (Dan, 2022; Z. Wang et al., 2024).
China’s rising age at first marriage reflects not only shifting cultural values but also deeper structural changes with significant demographic and social consequences. The postponement of marriage has contributed to persistently low fertility, accelerated population aging, and mounting concerns about long-term demographic sustainability. These demographic pressures have become central to China’s policy agenda, particularly as the total fertility rate has fallen to historically low levels despite recent pronatalist initiatives. Moreover, in China’s family-oriented cultural context—where marriage remains tightly linked to childbearing, social status, and intergenerational support—delayed marriage carries implications for gender inequality, labor-market participation, and family welfare. Understanding the drivers of marriage postponement is therefore critical for addressing China’s broader demographic transition and advancing gender-equitable social development.
Delayed marriage in China is not merely a demographic trend but a development with far-reaching societal implications. The rise in age at first marriage has contributed to persistently low fertility, accelerated population aging, and growing concerns about long-term demographic sustainability. These challenges have become central to China’s policy agenda, particularly as the total fertility rate has fallen to historically low levels despite recent pronatalist initiatives. Moreover, because marriage remains strongly linked to childbearing and social status in China’s family-oriented culture, postponement of marriage carries implications for gender inequality, labor market participation, and intergenerational family support. Understanding the drivers of delayed marriage is therefore essential for addressing broader demographic transitions and advancing gender-equitable social development.
While factors such as education and family background are frequently considered, little is known about how these determinants interact with gender to shape marriage timing. In particular, the influence of parental education, which is especially salient in the case of paternal education, has received scant attention in explaining gendered differences in marital delay. Moreover, few studies have employed nationally representative data to systematically test such interaction effects, which leaves our understanding of the mechanisms underlying gendered patterns of delayed first marriage in China incomplete.
Drawing on data from the 2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS2020), this study employs multivariate regression models to examine how factors across individual, family, and regional dimensions influence the timing of first marriage. By adopting a gendered analytical lens, we further investigate whether these factors exert differential effects on men and women. This approach enables a more nuanced understanding of how changing personal attitudes, shifting family expectations, and broader socioeconomic transformations shape marriage decisions across gender lines. In particular, we explore whether the effect of educational attainment on marriage timing differs systematically by gender by incorporating interaction terms between gender and education. This study contributes to the literature by offering a systematic and gender-informed analysis of the mechanisms underlying delayed first marriage in contemporary China, a topic that has received limited empirical attention. By examining how educational attainment interacts with gender to influence marital timing, the research provides nuanced insights into the evolving dynamics of gendered marriage behavior. Moreover, the findings yield timely evidence with policy relevance, particularly in the context of advancing educational equity, promoting gender equality, and addressing broader demographic challenges.
Theoretical Framework
Becker’s (1973) economic approach to marriage emphasizes that individuals weigh the expected utility of marriage against the opportunity costs of foregone labor-market participation. Educational attainment raises these opportunity costs by increasing human capital and potential earnings, thereby encouraging marriage postponement. This effect is particularly significant among women, whose growing educational attainment and labor-market opportunities reduce the economic advantages of early specialization in household production. At the same time, persistent gendered expectations in marriage markets, which evaluate men primarily on economic stability and women on domestic contributions, shape how education affects marriage timing differently for men and women. This theoretical perspective therefore provides a foundation for examining both the direct influence of education on marriage delay and the gendered variation in these effects.
Gender role theory (Eagly, 1987) argues that socially constructed expectations shape behavior differently across gender. In China, traditional norms, which continue to cast women as primary caregivers and men as economic providers, persist despite substantial educational gains among women. Consequently, identical socioeconomic conditions may generate distinct effects for men and women, contributing to divergent marriage trajectories.
Bourdieu’s theory of cultural and social capital (1986) suggests that family background shapes marriage timing through the intergenerational transmission of resources, dispositions, and status aspirations. Parental education, as a central form of institutionalized cultural capital, organizes children’s expectations regarding education, work, and the appropriate timing of family formation. Families with greater cultural capital are more likely to legitimize prolonged schooling and delayed entry into marriage, while paternal and maternal education may influence sons and daughters through partially distinct mechanisms. This perspective provides a theoretical basis for examining how parental education contributes to gendered patterns in the timing of first marriage.
Taken together, these theoretical perspectives highlight the importance of examining marriage timing through a multi-dimensional and gender-sensitive lens. Building on these insights, this study pursues three main objectives. First, we assess how individual-level factors, particularly educational attainment, influence the timing of first marriage in contemporary China. Second, we examine the role of family background, with a specific focus on parental education, in shaping gendered patterns of marriage postponement. Third, we investigate whether these individual- and family-level determinants vary across gender by employing gender-stratified regression models and interaction terms. Positioning the analysis within these theoretical foundations allows for a systematic evaluation of the mechanisms underlying delayed first marriage and clarifies how socioeconomic and family contexts contribute differently to men’s and women’s marriage trajectories.
Factors Affecting Age at First Marriage
Individual-Level Factors
Historically, marriage decisions in China were deeply shaped by traditional norms such as arranged marriage and patrilineal kinship, which significantly constrained individual autonomy, particularly for women (Kirk & Gupta, 2022; Liu & Mu, 2023). In recent decades, however, growing individualism, gender equality discourse, and socioeconomic modernization have led to profound changes in marriage perceptions. A particularly salient factor influencing marriage timing is educational attainment. From the perspective of the economic theory of marriage, higher education enhances individuals’ human capital and raises the opportunity cost of early marriage, thereby encouraging postponement, especially among women who increasingly pursue advanced study and career opportunities before family formation (Becker, 1973).
In addition to educational expansion, other individual-level characteristics such as gender, religion, and ethnic identity also shape marital decisions. For instance, certain religious affiliations and ethnic backgrounds emphasize early unions or traditional marital arrangements, which contrast with more individualistic approaches to marriage (Hayford & Morgan, 2021; Waite & Lehrer, 2003). These personal attributes interact with broader social expectations and economic realities, producing diverse pathways to marriage in contemporary China. Understanding these intersections is essential for uncovering the mechanisms behind the postponement of first marriage.
Family-Level Factors
Family background, particularly family structure and parental education, plays a pivotal role in shaping individuals’ marriage timing. Drawing on cultural capital theory (Bourdieu, 1986), families with highly educated parents tend to transmit values that prioritize personal development and educational attainment, often resulting in delayed marriage among their children (Jennings et al., 1992; Jin et al., 2005; Yu & Xie, 2022). Parental education influences not only children’s access to educational resources but also their worldviews and life aspirations, which in turn shape decisions about when to marry (Axinn & Thornton, 1992).
According to family systems theory (Bowen, 1978) and social learning theory (Bandura, 1977), patterns of interaction between parents and children, along with parental marital quality and communication, shape expectations of intimacy and commitment. Recent evidence highlights how these family-level influences intersect with gendered cultural norms, reinforcing differentiated pathways to marriage for sons and daughters in contemporary China (Zhong & Wilkinson, 2025).
Social-Level Factors
The rising age at first marriage in China is closely tied to broad social and institutional changes accompanying the country’s rapid modernization. According to official statistics, the average age at first marriage for both men and women steadily increased between 1990 and 2020. For example, men’s mean age rose from 23.57 to 25.63 and women’s from 22.02 to 23.89 between 1990 and 2021, reflecting a clear trend of delayed marriage (Zhu, 2022). By 2020, the average age at first marriage had further reached 29.38 for men, underscoring the magnitude of this demographic transformation (X. Wang, 2024). This shift reflects not only individual or economic factors but also deeper changes in the social structure and policy landscape.
From the perspective of modernization theory (Inglehart & Baker, 2000; Notestein, 1945), economic development, educational expansion, and urbanization have promoted individualism and reshaped life course expectations, leading many to postpone traditional milestones such as marriage. At the same time, structural and institutional factors such as China’s hukou system, regional policy disparities, and labor market segmentation have contributed to unequal access to education, employment, and housing across different regions (Chan & Buckingham, 2008). These regional imbalances are reinforced by the persistent urban–rural divide and mass internal migration, which together create varying opportunity structures for young people navigating the transition to adulthood.
As a result, individuals in economically advanced urban regions often delay marriage due to prolonged education and evolving gender norms, while those in less developed rural areas may marry earlier in response to different cultural expectations and economic pressures. These differences highlight how macro-level transformations, such as social change, regional development, and shifting gender norms, not only influence marriage behavior directly but also shape the broader context in which individual and family factors operate. This forms the analytical foundation of the present study.
Data Sources and Processing
The data used in this study come from the 2020 wave of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS2020), a nationally representative longitudinal survey that collects individual, household, and community-level data to capture changes in China’s society, economy, education, and health. The CFPS2020 sample covers approximately 16,000 households across 25 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Hainan. This study primarily utilizes individual and household questionnaire data from CFPS2020.
To improve data completeness, missing values in the 2020 dataset were imputed using information from earlier waves (2010–2018) based on unique personal identifiers (PID). The sample was restricted to individuals with first-marriage experience to align with the research focus on delayed first marriage. Following guidelines from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, individuals over 70 years of age were excluded, given the average life expectancy of 77.4 years and healthy life expectancy of 68.5 years in 2019. Additionally, individuals under the age of 15 were excluded to ensure analytical relevance.
After cleaning and excluding missing observations, the final analytical sample consisted of 8,570 individuals.
Methods
Variables
Explained Variable
The dependent variable in this study is the age at first marriage. Individuals who reported being in their first marriage were identified using the questionnaire item “Is this your first marriage?” Age at first marriage was then calculated by subtracting the respondent’s year of birth from the reported year of first marriage.
Explanatory Variable
The key explanatory variables are classified into three dimensions: individual, family, and societal levels. Table 1 provides a detailed overview of these variables, including their definitions, coding schemes, and levels of measurement. The classification is aligned with the theoretical framework of this study, which emphasizes a multi-level approach to understanding the determinants of first marriage timing.
Measurement and Coding of Explanatory Variables.
Statistical Methods
This study employs a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models to examine how individual, family, and social-level factors influence the timing of first marriage. A hierarchical modeling strategy is adopted, whereby explanatory variables are introduced in conceptual blocks to assess their incremental explanatory power. To further investigate gender-specific patterns, we conduct gender-stratified regressions in order to examine whether the effects of individual, family, and societal factors on marriage timing vary between men and women. Moreover, we incorporate interaction terms between gender and the two key explanatory variables, namely educational attainment and parental education, to formally examine whether their effects on marriage timing vary between men and women. This strategy facilitates a more nuanced understanding of how gender conditions the associations between explanatory factors and the postponement of first marriage in contemporary China.
Results
Descriptive Statistic
Table 2 presents the descriptive statistics for the full sample as well as the male and female subsamples. Two types of summary measures are reported: means and standard deviations for continuous variables, and proportions for categorical variables. The first column displays statistics for the full sample, while the second and third columns present the corresponding statistics for male and female respondents, respectively. The total sample comprises 8,570 individuals, with males accounting for 46.55% of the sample, indicating a relatively higher representation of females in the dataset.
Summary Statistics.
Note. Means and standard deviations (in parentheses) are reported for continuous variables. Percentages are reported for binary and categorical variables (coded as Table 1). “N/A” indicates variables that are not applicable within subgroup statistics. Birth cohort categories refer to decade of birth. Gender is coded as 1 for male, 0 for female.
The average age of respondents is 53.2 years. Individuals born in the 1970s constitute the largest birth cohort (31.42%), while those born in the 1990s represent only 0.81%. Only 2.27% of respondents report having religious affiliations.
Notably, the mean age at first marriage is 23.86 years for males and 22.28 years for females, indicating a clear gender disparity in marital timing. Similarly, the average duration of premarital cohabitation is longer for men (1.35 years) than for women (1.09 years). With respect to educational attainment, men report more years of schooling than women on average, further reflecting persistent gender gaps in access to education.
When viewed in combination, these patterns point to a persistent structural influence of gender on individual decision-making across the life course.
In addition to the full sample, the table reports average household size and parental educational attainment for subsamples disaggregated by gender. Across all groups, fathers consistently report substantially more years of schooling than mothers. This discrepancy is likely indicative of a historical gender gap in access to education, particularly within the sociocultural context of earlier generations in China, where women had significantly fewer educational opportunities. Such intergenerational disparities may have implications for both offspring educational attainment and household structure.
Additionally, 71.79% of respondents come from non-agricultural households, and 40.54% reside in eastern regions, a pattern that may further interact with educational and familial dynamics under investigation.
To further illustrate the gender and cohort-specific patterns in marital timing, Figure 1 plots the kernel density estimates of first marriage age for men and women across five birth cohorts. While Table 2 provides summary statistics, this visual depiction highlights the distributional shifts over time, revealing a trend toward delayed marriage, particularly among women born in more recent cohorts.
Distribution of first marriage age among men and women by birth cohort in 2020.
Figure 1 clearly illustrates a more substantial shift among women, the peak of the marriage age distribution gradually shifts to the right across successive cohorts, with the 1990s cohort exhibiting the latest and most dispersed timing. This trend is especially pronounced among women, underscoring a stronger movement toward delayed or diversified marital timing in younger female populations.
Table 3 compares the median age at first marriage and IQRs across five birth cohorts, revealing generational shifts in marital timing. A longitudinal comparison reveals a steady increase in median marriage age from the 1950s to the 1970s cohorts. The trend plateaus in the 1980s cohort and reverses in the 1990s, although this latter finding should be interpreted with caution due to potential sample bias.
Median and IQR for Age at Marriage by Birth Cohort for Men and Women.
Note. IQR = 75th Percentile−25th Percentile.
In terms of gender differences, the median age at first marriage is consistently higher for men than for women across all cohorts. This persistent gender gap may reflect entrenched gender norms and societal expectations regarding marital roles. The upward shift is especially evident among women, suggesting a more substantial cohort-based transformation in female marital behavior. While men continue to marry later on average, the gender gap has narrowed in recent cohorts, reflecting broader social and cultural shifts in gender norms.
Building on these descriptive findings, the next section applies multivariate regression to assess how individual, familial, and cohort-level factors jointly shape marital timing.
Full Sample Analysis
Table 4 presents the results of ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions, sequentially incorporating individual-level, family-level, and social contextual variables. Across model specifications, the significance and direction of key coefficients remain largely stable, indicating robustness to model expansion. Given this consistency, the discussion below focuses on the fully adjusted model, which includes all explanatory variables.
OLS Regression Results for Age at First Marriage by Individual, Family, and Social Factors: Full Sample and Gender-Specific Models.
Note. Coefficients are reported with t-values in parentheses. Statistical significance is indicated by ***p < .01, **p < .05, *p < .1. Gender is coded as 1 = male (reference group = female); ethnicity is coded as 1 = Han (ref. group = minority); Religion: 1 = has religious belief, 0 = none; Birth cohort: 1950s as reference category. The first three columns display pooled OLS regressions with sequential inclusion of individual, family-, and societal-level variables. The last three columns report gender-specific regressions following the same model structure.
When only individual-level factors are considered, gender, educational attainment, and premarital cohabitation duration emerge as significant predictors of first marriage age. Gender exerts a particularly notable influence: the coefficient for males (β = 1.265) indicates that, holding other factors constant, men marry on average about 1.27 years later than women. A similar pattern is observed for years of education and premarital cohabitation. Each additional year of schooling is associated with a 0.157-year delay in marriage age (β = .157), indicating that higher educational attainment significantly postpones union formation. Premarital cohabitation also shows a delaying effect, with each additional year of cohabitation linked to a 0.03-year increase in the age at first marriage (β = .030). These results suggest that investing in education and forming longer premarital unions both contribute to postponing marriage. Importantly, the effect of gender remains consistent across models, highlighting ongoing differences between men and women in how they experience life events such as marriage.
At the family level, household size emerges as a significant predictor of marital timing. The coefficient for household size (β = −.128) indicates that each additional household member is associated with a 0.13-year reduction in the age at first marriage, holding other factors constant. This suggests that individuals from larger households tend to enter marriage earlier, possibly due to stronger family expectations or resource-sharing dynamics within extended family structures.
Furthermore, a higher level of paternal education is significantly associated with delayed marriage among children, whereas maternal education does not exhibit a statistically significant effect. Interestingly, higher levels of parent-child trust are linked to earlier marriage, particularly among daughters—a pattern that may reflect gendered expectations of parental approval and relational readiness.
In the social-contextual dimension, regional and residential factors exert meaningful influence on marital timing. Individuals with non-agricultural household registration marry significantly earlier than those with agricultural hukou (β = −1.210), corresponding to an average reduction of about 1.21 years in age at first marriage when other factors are held constant. Regional variation also plays an important role. Compared with residents in the eastern region, individuals in the central (β = −.559) and western regions (β = −.451) marry earlier by approximately 0.56 and 0.45 years, respectively. These patterns imply that structural conditions associated with regional development, which span dimensions such as education, economic resources, and family norms, play a systematic role in shaping the timing of marriage. While these associations are observed for both men and women, the rural–urban and regional divides appear more pronounced among women, further underscoring the intersection of gender and geographic context in shaping marital behavior.
Gender Difference Analysis
In addition to the pooled regression analyses, this study examines gender-based differences in the determinants of age at first marriage across three dimensions: individual, family, and societal. To capture these heterogeneous effects, the sample is stratified by gender and separate regressions are estimated. The results are summarized in Table 5.
Regression Results of Factors Influencing Age at First Marriage Based on Gender Grouping.
p < .1. **p < .05. ***p < .01.
At the individual level, both educational attainment and the duration of premarital cohabitation are positively associated with delayed marriage for men and women. However, the magnitude of the effect varies by gender. Specifically, each additional year of education is associated with a 0.175-year delay in the age at first marriage for men and a 0.139-year delay for women. This suggests that men’s marital timing is somewhat more responsive to educational attainment. A plausible explanation lies in gendered life course expectations: due to greater societal pressure surrounding age and fertility, women may still marry earlier despite pursuing higher education, whereas men may delay marriage in favor of career development (Liu, 2015). The effect of premarital cohabitation is similar across gender groups, with only marginal differences in magnitude.
For perceived social status, both genders show a positive relationship with delayed marriage, but again with differing intensity. In the fully adjusted model, men in the highest status group postpone marriage by an average of 0.611 years, compared to 0.324 years among women. This finding suggests that socioeconomic positioning may exert a stronger influence on men’s marital timing, potentially reflecting gendered associations between career mobility and union formation. Ethnicity also presents gender-specific patterns. Among women, ethnic minority status is significantly associated with later marriage, particularly when only family-level covariates are included. Once both family and social factors are introduced, the effect of ethnicity becomes significant for both men and women, implying that cultural and structural factors jointly shape marriage timing across ethnic groups.
The observed disparities indicate that men’s marital timing is more responsive to socioeconomic resources such as education and perceived status, whereas women’s decisions appear more tightly shaped by cultural norms and family expectations—underscoring structurally gendered constraints in union formation.
At the family level, household composition exhibits gender-differentiated effects on marital timing. Among men, having fewer family members is associated with a later age at first marriage. This may reflect the unique burden placed on only sons under China’s one-child policy, where responsibilities for supporting aging parents and managing family finances may lead to postponed marriage in favor of fulfilling familial obligations. In contrast, paternal education appears to influence women’s marital timing more strongly. A higher level of paternal education is significantly associated with delayed marriage among women, while maternal education shows no significant effect. This asymmetry may suggest that paternal educational background acts as a proxy for household status or normative expectations, particularly in shaping daughters’ aspirations and autonomy in union formation.
Regarding social-level factors, individuals from non-agricultural (urban) households are more likely to delay marriage compared to their counterparts from agricultural (rural) backgrounds. This urban–rural divide is more pronounced among men, suggesting that access to urban resources and opportunities may influence male marital behavior more strongly. Regional disparities are also evident, particularly among women. Those living outside the western region, especially in more economically advanced provinces, tend to defer entry into marriage. This trend may reflect the combined effects of expanded educational access, greater labor market participation, and evolving gender norms in more developed areas.
Interaction Effect Analysis
The previous gender-stratified regression analyses revealed notable differences in how educational attainment and paternal education influence men and women. These disparities suggest that the effects of individual educational resources and family background may operate differently across gender groups. To further investigate this interaction, the current section explores whether education and paternal education moderate the relationship between gender and age at first marriage.
To facilitate interpretation of interaction effects, both individual and paternal years of education are recoded into binary variables, which are referred to as Education Level Group and Father’s Education Level Group, respectively. These binary indicators, which distinguish high from low levels of education based on sample-specific thresholds, allow for clearer visualization of interaction effects and a more concise presentation of regression results.
As shown in Table 6, the interaction term between individual education and gender yields a negative and statistically significant coefficient. This indicates that higher levels of individual education attenuate the gender gap in the timing of first marriage. In other words, as years of schooling increase, the difference in marital timing between men and women becomes less pronounced.
Regression Results of the Moderating Effect of Education Grouping and Father’s Education Grouping on Gender.
p < .1. **p < .05. ***p < .01.
A similar pattern is observed in the interaction between paternal education and gender. The negative coefficient suggests that higher paternal educational attainment also weakens the influence of gender on age at first marriage, implying that family background—specifically paternal education—may mitigate gendered constraints in union formation.
Conclusion
This study draws on data from the 2020 wave of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS2020S) to examine the determinants of delayed first marriage in the Chinese population across three dimensions: individual, family, and societal. Gender-stratified regression models were employed to assess how the effects of these factors differ between men and women. The analysis further incorporated interaction terms to evaluate whether individual educational attainment and paternal education moderate the relationship between gender and age at first marriage, thereby deepening our understanding of how social and familial contexts generate gendered patterns of union formation.
First, at the individual level, gender remains a central factor in shaping marital timing, with men generally postponing marriage more than women. This difference is closely associated with individual-level resources such as educational attainment, perceived social status, and premarital cohabitation. The results highlight that educational attainment significantly delays marriage for both genders, but its effect is more pronounced among men. This suggests that education not only prolongs the period of human capital investment, but also intensifies gendered divergences in life-course planning and union formation. Similarly, men with longer durations of cohabitation or higher subjective social status tend to marry later, indicating that men’s marital decisions are more sensitive to the accumulation and perception of socioeconomic capital.
We suggest that these differences reflect gendered pathways to marriage, in which men are more likely to delay union formation until certain material or social thresholds are met, while women’s timing may be influenced by a more complex interplay of social expectations, life goals, and structural opportunity. These findings contribute to existing scholarship by empirically documenting how personal resources operate differently across gender lines in shaping marital behavior.
Second, at the family level, background characteristics, especially parental education, shape men’s and women’s marital timing in distinct ways. Among women, paternal education exerts a more pronounced delaying effect, which may be attributed to its role in shaping daughters’ educational aspirations, long-term life goals, and openness to egalitarian gender norms. This asymmetry illustrates the gendered function of paternal influence in transmitting cultural capital, especially within families that emphasize individual autonomy, upward mobility, and self-directed development. In addition, ongoing social, economic, and cultural transformations have contributed to a reconfiguration of women’s attitudes toward marriage. Traditional expectations of early marriage are increasingly giving way to patterns of delayed and selective union formation. This shift is particularly evident in urban contexts, where marriage is no longer regarded as the sole indicator of social status, but rather as a personal choice shaped by emotional compatibility, individual aspirations, and mutual development.
These findings underscore that rising levels of gender equality, improved access to education and employment, and increased societal acceptance of diverse life trajectories have collectively expanded women’s autonomy in marital decision-making. They further underscore how broader structural transformations have enabled women to redefine not only the timing of marriage, but also its meaning and significance within the life course.
Third, at the societal level, structural and cultural conditions shape gendered patterns of marital timing through urbanization, regional inequality, and dominant gender norms. Urban residency and non-agricultural household registration are strongly associated with delayed marriage, particularly among women. This pattern likely reflects the greater access to education and employment opportunities in urban areas, as well as a more progressive cultural environment that supports female autonomy and redefined gender roles.
These findings highlight how structural transformations tied to modernization, which include institutional legacies such as the hukou system and uneven regional development, intersect with gender to produce differentiated patterns of marital timing. While men tend to benefit from enhanced structural resources that support economic autonomy, women’s delayed marriage reflects the cumulative effect of both individual advancement and a shifting cultural climate that increasingly legitimizes diverse life paths.
Overall, this study reveals clear gendered differences in marital decision-making. Across multiple indicators, the results consistently point to a broader shift in women’s attitudes toward marriage, characterized by increased self-awareness, autonomy, and resistance to traditional gender norms. In contrast to the conventional expectation that women should marry early and define their status through family roles, contemporary women—especially those with higher education and career opportunities—are increasingly likely to postpone marriage in favor of personal development and self-fulfillment.
These changes reflect a broader transformation in marriage values and life course trajectories, driven by socioeconomic development, educational expansion, and shifting gender ideologies. As traditional family models become less adaptive to modern individuals’ aspirations, society must respond with thoughtful structural and policy adaptations.
Based on the empirical findings, several evidence-based policy implications emerge. First, reducing the opportunity costs associated with marriage and childbearing may help mitigate the gendered constraints linked to educational and occupational attainment, which tend to delay marriage more substantially for individuals engaging in prolonged human-capital investment. This can be achieved by expanding childcare services, improving flexible work arrangements, and strengthening parental-leave programs.
Second, targeted support for youths from low-education families can help narrow unequal life-course opportunities, which arise from the intergenerational transmission of cultural and social capital reflected in parental education. Such support may include scholarships, mentorship programs, and enhanced access to career-development resources.
Third, improving welfare provision and employment opportunities in rural and less-developed regions may help reduce the structural inequalities that shape marriage trajectories, which remain strongly influenced by uneven regional development and limited access to socioeconomic resources.
Collectively, these grounded recommendations follow directly from the study’s empirical results and provide actionable strategies for addressing China’s demographic and gender-related challenges.
In addition to these evidence-based implications, broader social and cultural efforts remain essential for promoting gender equity and supporting more flexible approaches to marriage. Strengthening gender-equality education, which helps challenge persistent gender-role expectations and foster more autonomous decision-making among young adults, can create a more supportive environment for diverse life paths. Enhancing institutional resources that enable young people to balance career development and family formation, which include improved access to education, stable employment, and comprehensive social support systems and which collectively help normalize delayed marriage, may further reduce pressures rooted in traditional norms. These efforts, which can relieve marriage-related burdens and enhance marital quality, ultimately contribute to a more equitable and inclusive society.
Limitations and Future Work
This study is based on data from the 2020 wave of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS2020), which imposes certain limitations. The descriptive analysis reveals potential selection bias, particularly in relation to the post-1990s birth cohort. As of 2020, a substantial proportion of individuals born after 1990 remained unmarried and thus were underrepresented in the sample. This omission limits the external validity of the findings, especially regarding how factors such as parent-child trust, family relationships, and regional context influence the timing of first marriage.
Given that the post-1990s cohort may hold distinct attitudes toward marriage and exhibit different life-course patterns compared to earlier generations, future research should explicitly address this gap. It is recommended that subsequent survey waves over sample or stratify younger cohorts to ensure adequate representation. Moreover, future studies should pay particular attention to the socialization experiences, family dynamics, and evolving marital values of never-married individuals within this group, which may diverge significantly from those of older cohorts.
Furthermore, the cross-sectional nature of the CFPS2020 data introduces an inherent temporal limitation, which prevents the analysis from capturing dynamic changes in marriage timing over the life course or across different historical periods. Without longitudinal evidence, the study cannot fully disentangle age, period, and cohort effects, nor can it track how individual and family factors shape marriage trajectories as circumstances evolve over time. Future research would benefit from panel data or repeated cross-sectional surveys that allow for a more robust assessment of temporal dynamics.
Footnotes
Ethical Considerations
This study uses secondary data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS 2020), which were collected by Peking University following their institutional ethical guidelines. All identifying information in the dataset is fully anonymized before being released to researchers. Therefore, additional ethics approval was not required for this analysis. Informed consent was obtained by the CFPS team at the time of original data collection.
Consent to Participate
Informed consent was obtained from all participants by the CFPS research team at the time of the original data collection.
Consent for Publication
Not applicable, as the study uses anonymized secondary data and does not involve identifiable personal information.
Author Contributions
The author was solely responsible for the entire research process, including conceptualization, data collection, analysis, and manuscript writing.
Funding
The author disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: Jiangsu Provincial Department of Education, Grant No. 2024SJYB0500.
Declaration of Conflicting Interests
The author declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.