The Evolutionary Characteristics and Process Mechanisms of Online Public Opinion for Major Sports Event Emergencies

Abstract

With the rapid development of information technology, online public opinion on major sports event emergencies occurs frequently. However, the causal mechanisms and governance strategies for the evolution of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies have not been sufficiently explored; thus, this study examines public sentiment and the drivers of major sports event emergencies using Python and the grounded theory method. The results reveal that the evolution of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies is characterized by three stages: “outbreak period, repetition period and fading period.” Furthermore, online public opinion on major sports event emergencies demonstrates a dynamic trend of “triggering-deepening-extending.” Moreover, the evolution of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies is mainly influenced by emotional resonance, accident review and extended reflection. These findings have implications for the response, control and governance of online public opinion about sports event emergencies.

Keywords

Major sports event emergencies Sentiment analysis Process mechanisms Grounded theory Big data

Introduction

Sports events improve infrastructure, attract external attention and promote public consumption (Funk et al., 2018; Gil-Alana et al., 2019; Lee & Tan, 2019; Zhang et al., 2019). They have a catalytic effect on the development of urban industries. Furthermore, they play a critical role in maintaining social stability, driving economic development and promoting cultural integration (Inoue & Havard, 2014; Zhou & Kaplanidou, 2021). However, due to complex factors such as the on-site environment, the size of the event and the cycle time of the event (Laing et al., 2019; Vanpoulle et al., 2017), sports events are often accompanied by numerous safety hazards and frequently result in major accidents. For example, the terrorist attack at the Boston Marathon in 2013 resulted in hundreds of casualties. A stampede at a stadium in Madagascar in 2018 killed and injured 48 people. The 2021 China Gansu Baiyin Marathon 100 km trail race was suddenly hit by extreme weather, and 21 runners were tragically killed due to whole-body heat loss. All of these major sports event emergencies attracted widespread attention from all sectors of the community. With the nuclear spread of internet information, major sports event emergencies are inevitably accompanied by negative online public opinion (Abeza et al., 2015; Frederick et al., 2016), which affects the normal holding of sports events and venues’ brand image and leads to the extension of negative effects and secondary crises. Therefore, it is particularly important to guide and control public opinion on sports event emergencies (Abeza et al., 2015; McGehee et al., 2020). With the development of information technology, managing online public opinion on major sports event emergencies requires close attention.

In recent years, sports events safety research has received considerable attention due to the frequent occurrence of major sports event emergencies (Breslow et al., 2019; Schwellnus et al., 2017; Schwellnus et al., 2019). Traditional accident research has focused on the mechanisms leading to major sports event emergencies (Buchholtz et al., 2021; O’Connor et al., 2017), risk management (Taylor & Toohey, 2011; Zhang et al., 2019), and aftercare (Kolt, 2010; Quarrie et al., 2020). With the continuous development of information technology, online public opinion has become an important area of research on current sports event emergencies (Kennedy et al., 2019; Lee & Suh, 2021). The generation and spread of online public opinion have deepened the negative public perception of sports event emergencies and have had a serious negative impact on sports events operations (Toder Alon et al., 2022), brand image and even social and economic stability. As a result, scholars have also explored the medium of communication of online public opinion on sports events (McCarthy, 2013; Popp et al., 2017), dissemination characteristics (Galily & Tamir, 2014; Moreau et al., 2021), dissemination impact (Ahmed & Hall, 2017; Forde & Wilson, 2018), etc. Most studies have relied on qualitative research methods, and their scope covers the communication media, communication characteristics, and communication impact of online public opinion on sports event emergencies (Rek-Woźniak & Woźniak, 2020; Skoglund et al., 2017). These conclusions also indicate that online public opinion spreads rapidly, has a large amount of information and has a wide impact. However, few studies have been conducted based on the pattern of the phenomenon, and the variability of public attitudes and the dynamic evolution of public opinion have been ignored. Most importantly, relevant findings using empirical analysis of online public opinion on major sports events based on big data can not only establish connections with previous studies and test past research results but also explore the evolution of public opinion based on a dynamic perspective. This can help to improve research on online public opinion about sports event emergencies, which is crucial to promote the development of the sports industry and social stability.

In summary, this paper achieves the following research aims: (1) examines the opinion tendency of the online public surrounding major sports event emergencies; (2) explores the temporal characteristics of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies and (3) clarifies the critical causes and formation mechanisms that affect online public opinion toward major sports events. To achieve the research aims, this study selects the case of the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident and examines over 7,000 Weibo comments to explore the evolutionary patterns and process mechanisms of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies by employing methods such as sentiment orientation, sentiment analysis and grounded theory. Based on a dynamic perspective, we clarify the multistage evolution pattern and process mechanisms of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies, deepening theoretical knowledge and understanding of the evolution of the phenomenon. Furthermore, the findings reveal the cyclical characteristics of the time evolution and expand the content framework of research on online public opinion on major sports event emergencies. In addition, the study provides practical implications for the response, control and management of online public opinion about major sports event emergencies, helping promote sound operations and the high-quality development of major sports events (Inoue & Havard, 2014).

Literature Review

During the 1970s and 1980s, intercontinental and world sports events were on the rise. Large sports events tend to have a high level of difficulty with security management, leading to a continued increase in major sports event emergencies. Sports events such as football, motor racing and skiing have seen stampedes, athlete casualties and other emergencies that seriously threaten the health of athletes and the sustainable development of the sports industry (Berger-Vachon et al., 1986; Fyfe & Guion, 1979; Trammell et al., 1986). In the 1990s, the end of the Cold War and globalization further expanded the scale of sports events. This put event organizers under tremendous pressure in terms of crowd control, equipment maintenance and emergency management, exacerbating the risk of major sports event emergencies. Cooke et al. (1999), Hawkins and Fuller (1996), and Press et al. (1995) based their research on the statistical analysis of major sports event emergencies, and event characteristics and causal mechanisms became the focus of research. In the early 21st century, crisis response to major sports event emergencies received significant attention from scholars. Relevant studies presented crisis response strategies such as facing public questions, compensating for accident losses and actively taking responsibility from the perspectives of crisis communication, aftercare and image restoration, respectively (Baade & Matheson, 2007; Pfahl & Bates, 2008). After 2010, research on sports events safety gradually diversified. A wealth of research has been conducted on event risk assessment, accident causation, risk management and aftercare (Buchholtz et al., 2021; Quarrie et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2019). Buchholtz et al. (2021), O’Connor et al. (2017), and Vanpoulle et al. (2017) found that human factors, facility factors, and environmental factors contribute to major sports event emergencies, providing a theoretical basis for the study of risks and accidents in event emergencies. Moreover, with major emergencies such as the terrorist attack at the Boston Marathon and the stadium stampede in Madagascar, academic attention to risk management research in security settings and crowd control at sports events has increased (Kim et al., 2018; Taylor & Toohey, 2011; Zhang et al., 2019). Scholars have developed a system for dealing with sports event emergencies that covers medical support, insurance claims, risk review and public opinion monitoring, which has become an important basis for crisis management. In general, major sports event emergencies have received increasing attention from scholars. Research has evolved from a focus on the statistical analysis of accidents and risk-inducing mechanisms to topics such as crisis management and governance. Importantly, public opinion management, as an important method of crisis control, has become a key topic related to major sports event emergencies that cannot be ignored and deserves further in-depth discussion.

Currently, the internet has become the main medium for the dissemination of information about major sports event emergencies, and the crisis of online public opinion about sports event emergencies is attracting increasing academic attention (Kennedy et al., 2019; Lee Ludvigsen, 2022). Scholars have suggested that factors such as communication media, content and form of communication can influence online public opinion on sports event emergencies. For example, scholars believe that new media platforms are the main medium for the dissemination of online public opinion on sports event emergencies (McCarthy, 2013; Popp et al., 2017). Negative opinion backlash and interference from irrelevant information have become disruptive factors in public opinion governance (Allison et al., 2020; Galily & Tamir, 2014), and aggressive online news reporting has a negative impact on online opinion crisis management (Forde & Wilson, 2018). In addition, it is noteworthy that crisis life cycle theory has been applied to explore online public opinion crisis response. However, there is no unified standard for delineating the life cycle of online public opinion on crisis events (Zhang et al., 2021). Further confirmation of the evolutionary cycle of online public opinion in major sports event emergencies research is still needed.

In summary, major sports event emergencies are becoming increasingly frequent. The antecedent mechanisms of online public opinion have received close attention from the academic community. Although relevant studies have explored the factors that contribute to online public opinion (Rek-Woźniak & Woźniak, 2020; Skoglund et al., 2017), the fact that public opinion evolves over time has been neglected. Therefore, the evolutionary characteristics and process mechanisms of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies are not clear, and relevant research on the dynamic management and avoidance of online public opinion crises is not sufficiently systematic. In contrast, this study uses big data technology to scientifically analyze the evolution pattern and process mechanisms of public opinion from a dynamic and multifaceted perspective. It provides theoretical guidance and practical inspiration for the control of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies.

Research Design

Research Methods and Measurement

Sentiment Orientation

Sentiment orientation focuses on inferential mining in texts that contain subjective sentiment (Pans et al., 2021). This study introduces a sentiment orientation index to measure and compare the sentiment heat of online public opinion after major sports event emergencies to explore the stage characteristics of public sentiment dynamics. The formula for calculating the sentiment heat is as follows (Zhang et al., 2022):

HOT = minmax (minmax (num * q)

(1)

where HOT represents the sentiment heat, num represents the number of user reviews, and q represents the variance of sentiment orientation. Min-max represents the standardized test method.

Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment analysis can be used to classify emotions or attitudes of subjective texts with implicit sentiments (Tirdad et al., 2021; Zapata et al., 2019). This study constructs a sentiment lexicon of the China Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident based on case characteristics and introduces big data sentiment analysis technology to gain insight into online public opinion toward major sports event emergencies. The formula for calculating the sentiment heat is as follows:

Sentiment - f (x) = \frac{\sum_{j = 1}^{n} s (w_{j}) * (- 1) * wei (adv)}{n}

(2)

Where $Sentiment - f (x)$ represents the sentiment assignment of the selected text, $s (w_{j})$ is the sentiment value of the sentiment word $w_{j}$ , k is the number of negation words occurring in the text, $wei (adv)$ is the moderation strength of the degree adverb near the sentiment word $w_{j}$ , and n is the number of sentiment tuples in the text.

Grounded Theory

Grounded theory is applied to explore the formation mechanisms of the tendency in public sentiment toward major sports event emergencies (Cruickshank et al., 2014). To do so, this study selected the case of the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident and followed three coding steps combined with procedural grounded theory (Wilson et al., 2021). We encoded, summarized, refined and abstracted the original online reviews to form the multistage influencing factors. The coding process was conducted by open coding, axial coding and selective coding. (1) Open coding requires the researcher to abandon individual subjective bias and the theoretical stereotype of the research phenomenon. This process refers to a phenomenon-based generalization of the collected original content (Weed, 2010). (2) The core purpose of axis coding is to develop the main category. That is, after continuous merging, comparison, and classification, potential logical connections will be discovered (Holt et al., 2017). (3) Selective coding needs to clarify the relationship between categories. After systematic sorting, the “core category” that covers most of the research results is discovered (Battaglia et al., 2022).

Sample Selection

Based on the principle of representative and theoretical sampling for case selection (Holt et al., 2017), this study selected the Gansu Baiyin Marathon as our research case. The reasons for the sample selection are as follows. In terms of representation, China has a huge market for sports events and an increasing number of marathons that are gaining attention (Qiu et al., 2020). As the latest and most serious major sports event emergency in China, the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident is a highly representative case. The 2021 Gansu Baiyin Marathon 100 km cross-country race was suddenly hit by extreme weather, and 21 runners were tragically killed due to whole-body heat loss. The investigation determined that the major accident was caused by poor event management and delayed rescue operations. The judicial authorities held the 27 staff members involved in the incident legally responsible, causing widespread concern and a huge public outcry from all sectors of society.

Data Collection

This study used comment texts as a data source for public sentiment and online opinion following these steps (Pans et al., 2021). First, the data were collected from Sina Weibo (http://t.sina.com.cn), which is an important platform for Chinese internet users to gather and exchange opinions on hot topics (Zhang et al., 2022). The time was limited to 31 days on the Weibo platform (22 May 2021 18:00–22 June 2021 18:00) after the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident. Second, 73 sets of terms were used as search terms, including #Baiyin marathon accident rescue details#, #Gansu Baiyin mountain marathon accident has now killed 20 people#, #Baiyin mayor responds to mountain marathon accident#, and #Baiyin 27 public officials held accountable#. Furthermore, we used Python technology to simulate the Weibo login and search process, wrote Weibo programing, and automatically crawled reviews on Weibo. More than 7,000 pieces of data were crawled, including the web username, comment time, comment content, and comment method. Among them, comment time and comment content were the main subjects of data analysis in this study. The web username and comment method were used to identify bot accounts and facilitate data cleaning. Finally, data cleaning was performed. We deleted duplicate items, blank items, advertising messages, spam and other irrelevant comments and finally obtained the initial data.

Results

The Sentiment Heat and Evolutionary Cycle of Online Public Opinion

We examined the sentiment heat of online public opinion on the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident by using the formula for calculating sentiment orientation. The results are shown in Figure 1. The evolution of online public opinion on the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident was characterized by obvious stages over time. Past studies usually divide the evolution of public opinion into four stages based on crisis life cycle theory (Fink, 1986). However, there is almost no sign phase for the evolution of the online public opinion of crisis accidents. In the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident, the evolution can be divided into three stages: the outbreak period, repetition period and fading period. The overall trend in changes in sentiment intensity within each phase is shown in Figure 2. The specific characteristics of each stage were as follows.

Phase 1 was the outbreak period, which took place between 1 and5 days after the accident. Sentiment heat on the internet went through a growth spurt and reached a peak.

Phase 2 was the repetition period, 6to 21 days after the accident. Public attention on the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident declined, but it still maintained a certain level of sentiment heat. During this period, as details of the safety accident continued to be disclosed and public questions about the accident were answered, online public opinion tended to subside. However, some members of the public were still concerned about the progress of the accident due to follow-up reports. Meanwhile, news of local herders who rescued stranded runners, and the announcement of a statement of accountability by government authorities received public attention. Praise for the rescue and memories of the accident led to two small outbreaks of online opinion.

Phase 3 was the fading period, which began 22 days after the accident. Reports of the Gansu Baiyin Marathon gradually decreased due to the end of post-accident accountability. Public attention gradually shifted, online opinion subsided, and the public storm faded from view. The sentiment heat of online public opinion reached a low point and the low point was maintained for a long time.

Figure 1.

The evolution of online public opinion on the China Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident.

Figure 2.

The specific characteristics of each stage.

Comparing the sentiment heat trends in three stages of evolution, the temporal evolution characteristics of online public opinion on the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident were as follows: first, public opinion began to explode after a short period of agitation and quickly reached a peak; second, public opinion cooled quickly but maintained a certain level of sentiment heat, fluctuated repeatedly over a period of time, and created a long tail of opinion; and finally, as the accident was resolved and time passed, public attention continued to diminish, and the sentiment heat of online opinion dissipated.

Process Mechanisms of the Evolution of Online Public Opinion on Major Sports Event Emergencies

Open coding. Open coding summarized, integrated and coded the online reviews (Battaglia et al., 2022; Holt et al., 2017; Wilson et al., 2021). To make the coding results rigorous and scientific to avoid analytical errors due to stereotypes, this study strictly followed the relevant requirements of grounded theory for open coding. First, the raw information of the various stages of the evolution of online public opinion on the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident was recorded using the labeling method. Second, the labeled words and phrases were refined and integrated to uncover the initial concept. Finally, the concept of initialization was further integrated based on category generalization. The initial concepts and categories are shown in Table 1.

Axis coding. The axis coding was based on a holistic grasp of the material, repeatedly compared the logical relationships between categories, and thus summarized the major categories. This study identified and contrasted the logical relationships between categories through the analytical paradigm of axis coding. Four major categories were concluded linking to the stages of the evolution of online public opinion: emotional resonance, accident review, extended reflection and expression of public opinion. First, emotional resonance was a major factor pushing the evolution of online public opinion during the outbreak period, including the shortage of supplies for runners, isolation of the runners and heavy casualties among the runners. Second, the accident review was a major factor in the evolution of online public opinion during the repetition period, referring to influences such as mismanagement during the race, the delayed official rescue, local people rushing to help, and refusal to take responsibility. Finally, extended thinking was a major contributing factor to the evolution of online opinion during the fading period, in which management reflections, and experience summary had an impact on the generation of online opinions. In addition, the expression of public opinion referred to the influence of emotional resonance, the accident review, and extended reflections. This generated a wide range of public opinions on major sports event emergencies, including shock and indignation, empathy and grief, calls for accountability, commendation for saving lives, appeals to institutional improvement and learning from the accident. Table 2 shows the fundamental categories and the corresponding categories.

Selective coding. This study mined the core categories from the main categories by selective coding. We identified the core categories and analyzed the logical links between the core categories and the main categories, focusing on the links between the four main categories of emotional resonance, accident review, extended reflection and expressions of public opinion. The typical relational structures of the main categories are shown in Table 3.

Table 1.

The Main Results of Open Coding.

Evolutionary stages	Original representative statement in the online review text	Category
Outbreak period	City marathons have a water station every few kilometers, cannot this high-altitude event have an extra tent as a supply point?	Shortage of supplies for runners (A1)
	The Xiamen Marathon has many energy stations, the Silver Cross Country Marathon must have more, right? Why is there not a single supply point for the second stage?	Shortage of supplies for runners (A1)
	Why is there no answer to rescue calls and no response to WeChat messages?	Isolation of runners (A2)
	It is outrageous that the organizers let people get uncomfortable and fall in line or get lost and send their own WeChat for help, but if they cannot send WeChat, they are left to their own devices.	Isolation of runners (A2)
	21 people were frozen alive, none of those originally said to be missing survived.	Heavy casualties among runners (A3)
	More than 10 per cent casualties? Almost all the top runners froze to death, so many people died in one event.	Heavy casualties among runners (A3)
	172 trail runners, 16 killed, 5 lost. 16 lives lost in one race is truly unheard of.	Shock and indignation (A4)
	That is many dead runners in one event! It is hateful!	Shock and indignation (A4)
	It is been a sad few days with one unexpected event after another!	Empathic grief (A5)
	It is truly very sad, things have happened, this profound lesson to reflect on, the dead have passed away, the living should be strong.	Empathic grief (A5)
Repetition period	I’m surprised there were not more stations and ambulances for this big event.	Mismanagement during the race (A6)
	I cannot believe that there was no rescue team or ambulance accompanying the marathon.	Mismanagement during the race (A6)
	The rescuers at the bottom of the mountain had to walk dozens of kilometers up the mountain to rescue people, and there was no faster first aid?	Delayed official rescue (A7)
	Ugh! The rescue response is truly slow.	Delayed official rescue (A7)
	It was truly thanks to the herdsmen that six lives were saved and the families behind them were made whole!	Local people rushing to help (A8)
	Kudos to the herdsman, if he hadn’t shown up in time there would have been more deaths and injuries.	Local people rushing to help (A8)
	Whenever something goes wrong, they blame the weather. Don’t the organizers and the authorities concerned have any responsibility at all?	Refusal to take responsibility (A9)
	The organizers of the race blamed the weather and the athletes’ lack of concern for their own lives. The organizers have not reflected on why the rescue was poorly carried out and why there were not enough rescue stations on the dangerous roads.	Refusal to take responsibility (A9)
	How did the organizers get the qualification to host? A profit-oriented race with no regard for safety and lack of management must be held accountable.	Demands for accountability (A10)
	Take taxpayers’ money to pay for their mistakes! There must be accountability.	Demands for accountability (A10)
	The shepherds have been silently guarding the place for years, thanks to the villagers, and they are truly blessed with a life of freedom and happiness.	Commendation for saving lives (A11)
	Kind herdsmen, warm and moving, thank you.	Commendation for saving lives (A11)
Fading period	Marathon chaos, now is it a place to hold a marathon, is every county city to hold a marathon, whether it is professional or not?	Management reflection (A12)
	How many professional organizers are there in the country? If we do not get it right, there will probably be more trouble elsewhere.	Management reflection (A12)
	Now it seems that the organizer and the operating company, one of which only finances and one of which only collects money, are not capable of running a good competition at all.	Experience summary (A13)
	It is a serious dereliction of duty on the part of the organizers to run an outdoor, high-intensity race like a marathon in this weather! If only one person or one organization had been more responsible, this tragedy would not have happened!	Experience summary (A13)
	All future middle distance running or cycling races should be followed by a car before and after.	Appeal to institutional improvement (A14)
	It is time to fix some of the incompetent event organizers in China, who are making a joke of human lives by cutting back on investment to maximize profit.	Appeal to institutional improvement (A14)
	Accountability must be achieved to the end, with punishment sufficient to warn and correct future generations of organizers.	Learn from the accident (A15)
	Cherish your life, protect your safety and participate in science. At this point, I hope that the situation will be handled properly and that the lessons learned will serve as a warning to future generations of organizers.	Learn from the accident (A15)

Table 2.

The Main Results of Axial Coding.

Evolutionary stages	Fundamental category	Corresponding category	Connotation of category
Outbreak period	Emotional resonance	Shortage of supplies for runners	Negative public opinion erupted after the public received information that the improperly set up supply points led to a lack of energy and loss of body temperature among the participants.
		Isolation of runners	Negative public opinion was generated after news spread that the stranded runners had been unable to contact rescue teams and had been killed or injured.
		Heavy casualties among runners	The large number of contestant casualties stimulates public nerves and raises the level of public attention on the emergencies, laying the foundation for deepening public opinion.
Repetition period	Accident review	Mismanagement during the race	As the event officials were primarily responsible for the disappearance of the runners due to the improper arrangement of staff and accompanying vehicles, there was a public outcry against the event officials, demanding accountability.
		Delayed official rescue	The delayed rescue by the event officials, which missed the best time to rescue the runners and led to the death of the runners due to untimely medical treatment, led to an online public outcry for official accountability.
		Local people rush to help	The kindness of the local people in cooperating with the rescue team and rescuing the stranded runners after the accident has stimulated goodwill among the public toward the local helpers and to a certain extent moderated the negative public opinion.
		Refusal to take responsibility	During the accident notification phase, race officials emphasized the objective weather factors and ignored their responsibility, which caused public discontent and inspired demands by the public to hold officials accountable.
Fading period	Extended reflection	Management reflections	Following the conclusion of this accident, public opinion has been further concerned about the chaos and low level of professionalism in marathons across the country, easily leading to safety accidents due to poor management practices.
Fading period	Extended reflection	Experience summary	Following the conclusion of the accident, the public summary the accident in the context of the information available, recalling the shortcomings in the official handling of the emergency.
Outbreak period	Expression of public opinion	Shock and indignation	Shock and indignation characterize the public opinion due to the isolation of runners, shortage of supplies for runners and the lack of rescue efforts by the event organizers, resulting in casualties.
Outbreak period		Empathetic grief	Empathetic grief is a manifestation of empathy and sadness in public opinion as a result of the heavy casualties among the runners.
Repetition period		Demands for accountability	Accountability demands refer to the public’s insistence that the event organizers and official bodies be held accountable for judicial responsibility arising from the mismanagement during the race, delayed official rescue and refusal to take responsibility.
Repetition period		Commendation for saving lives	Commendation for saving lives is public praise and commendation for local people’s spontaneous rescue of stranded runners.
Fading period		Appeal to institutional improvement	Appeal to institutional improvement refers to the public’s call for improving and fixing the current marathon system triggered by management reflections.
Fading period		Learn from the accident	Learning from the accident means that the public will experience summary the shortcomings of the official handling of the accident in the aftermath, with the hope that the safety accident will provide a negative model for marathon events to reduce the risk of accidents.

Table 3.

The Typical Relational Structure of the Main Categories.

Typical relationship structure	The connotation of relationship structure
Emotional resonance → Public opinion triggering	Emotional resonance is the basis for the triggering of online public opinion, which is induced in reaction to the message of giving help. The isolation of the runners and the shortage of supplies sparked public discontent, leading to shock and indignation among the public and the rapid spread of negative opinion. In addition, the tragedy of the runners, who suffered heavy casualties, inspired a public outpouring of empathy and grief.
Accident review → Deepening of public opinion	The accident review is the key to the deepening of online public opinion, which is deepened by the influence of official actions and public assistance. The failure to follow up during the race, the delay in the official rescue and the evasion of information on responsibility stimulated public demands for judicial accountability. In addition, the public praise for the rescue was generated by the actions of the local people who came to their aid, which to a certain extent mitigated the negative public opinion about the accident.
Extended reflections → Opinion extension	Extended reflections are at the root of extended online public opinion, caused by the impact of frequent accidents and delayed accountability, deepen online public opinion. The frequency of accidents has prompted public reflection on the marathon management system and stimulated calls to improve the marathon system. In addition, the delay in accountability has led to experience summary of the accident, which has led to a public reflection on the official handling of the accident and experience summary of the accident handling process, inspiring the public to use this safety accident as a negative model for marathon events to reduce the risk of future accidents.

Based on the intrinsic connection between the categories, this study further theoretically abstracted the main categories and distilled the three core categories of emotional resonance, accident review and extended reflections to construct the model. The model of the factors influencing the evolution of online public opinion and the mechanisms of the evolutionary process are shown in Figure 3.

4. Theoretical saturation test. To avoid coding errors due to stereotypes, our study team was divided into four groups with two to three members each. When one member of the group presented an idea, the rest of the group provided support or opposition, and the concepts and categories were revised and adjusted during the coding process until all members agreed and no new ideas emerged. It was thus concluded that the theoretical “model of the factors influencing the evolution of online public opinion and the mechanisms of the evolutionary process” was saturated (Battaglia et al., 2022; Cruickshank et al., 2014; Wilson et al., 2021).

5. Model interpretation. First, public emotional venting triggers online public opinion (see Figure 4). By analyzing commentary texts during the outbreak period when a large amount of information about the accident was disseminated, this study found that due to the remoteness of the location of the accident, the public’s understanding of the accident was incomplete, and many questions were raised. When the public receives information about sports accidents, it is difficult to think calmly due to the amount of information available. Based on their judgments and perceptions and driven by their discontent and empathy, the public expressed their shock, indignation and empathic grief. Specifically, construal level theory suggests that people’s perceptions of things are influenced by psychological distance and empathy (Jang et al., 2020). In the aftermath of the Gansu Baiyin Marathon, the public was most concerned about the current situation of the runners and developed varying degrees of empathy through self-mapping (Stanger et al., 2012a; Stanger et al., 2016). The lack of rescue efforts by race officials, which resulted in injuries and deaths, distanced the public from the race organizers. The psychological effects of sympathizing with the runners who were killed and condemning the race officials inspired public expression of shock and indignation. Moreover, empathy can lead to public moral behavior (Stanger et al., 2012b). Driven by the psychology of empathy and the unfortunate situation of the runners, the public was prompted to express their empathic grief through prayers for peace and words of consolation.

Figure 3.

The evolution of online public opinion and the mechanism of the evolutionary process.

Figure 4.

The model of public opinion triggering.

Second, public demands drive the deepening of online public opinion (see Figure 5). Influenced by the disclosure of details of the accident during the repetition period, the public became more aware of the accident. As it had been some time since the accident, the public was better informed and sentiments were more stable. The public made attributions and moral judgments about the accident based on their simple notions of justice around official actions and information about the rescue. Individuals were driven to produce manifestations of public opinion that included perceptions of accidents and moral evaluations. On the one hand, the public made judgments based on official accident response behavior. The public believed that mismanagement during the race and the delay in the rescue effort were the critical reasons for the accident and called for accountability and punishment of the responsible units. On the other hand, the public should be praised for their assistance rather than ignoring the contribution of local people because of the nature of the accident.

Figure 5.

The deepening path of public opinion.

In addition, the public’s call for a better marathon system was the main reason for the extension of online public opinion (see Figure 6). When notification of the accident and post-event accountability ended during the fading period, public attention was no longer confined to the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident but extended to the institutional level of the event. Overall, cognitive-emotional-behavioral theory suggests that individual expectations directly influence individuals’ emotions and behavior (Moital et al., 2019). Driven by individual expectations, the public adhered to the idea of changing the current situation. In response to the frequent occurrence of marathon accidents, the public reflected on the way marathon events were managed and called for institutional improvements. In addition, the public was dissatisfied with the poor response to the accident and the way it was handled, the length of time it took to respond and the delay in assigning responsibility. The public developed a desire to “learn from the accident” to reduce the risk of accidents that has been stimulated.

Figure 6.

The model of opinion extension.

This study summarized the factors influencing the evolution of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies through a case study. Three factors influenced the evolution of online public opinion: emotional resonance, accident review and extended reflections, which drove the three evolutionary processes of public opinion elicitation, public opinion deepening and public opinion extension, respectively. Specifically, public opinion triggering led to the expression of a public emotional catharsis, which laid the foundation for the deepening of public opinion. It consisted of three major categories: the shortage of supplies for the runners, the isolation of the runners and heavy casualties among the runners. A shortage of supplies for the runners and their isolation induced expressions of shock and indignation in online public opinion. The heavy casualties among the runners led to expressions of empathy and grief in online opinion. Second, the deepening of public opinion triggers the manifestation of public opinion raised by the claim, contributing further extension. It consisted of four main categories: mismanagement during the race, delayed official rescue, refusal to take responsibility and local people rushing to help. Mismanagement during the race, delayed official rescue and refusal to take responsibility led to online public opinion on calls for accountability. Moreover, the local people rushing to help led to online opinions praising the rescue. Finally, the extension of public opinion led to calls for institutional improvement, covering two main categories of management reflection and experience summary. Management reflections led to online opinions calling for institutional improvement. The experience summary of the accident then triggered online opinions about learning from the accident.

In summary, the evolution of online public opinion on this sports event emergency was influenced by three different stages of public opinion triggers linking emotional resonance, accident review and extended reflection. In the three processes of public opinion elicitation, public opinion deepening and public opinion extension, and different expressions of public opinion eventually emerged.

Discussion

Conclusions

First, there is almost no sign phase for the evolution of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies (Zhang et al., 2021). In the previous conclusions, the dissemination of public opinion mainly relied on the reports of traditional media, and it was difficult for the public to obtain accident information quickly. However, online public opinion spreads more rapidly, and it is easier for the public to access information on online platforms. This has allowed the proliferation of information to grow rapidly and reach a peak (McCarthy, 2013). Due to the official announcements and news media following multiple days of reports, the accident details gradually became clear, and the sentiment heat of public opinion dropped significantly (Chen et al., 2018). However, the latest updates on accident developments still evoke the public’s memories of the crisis and trigger new topics of related public opinion. Finally, online public opinion enters a “cold phase” (Kim et al., 2021). According to crisis life cycle theory, as updates on events further decrease, the focus of public attention shifts, and public opinion fades from the public eye.

Second, online public opinion on major sports events demonstrates a dynamic trend of “triggering-deepening-extending.” Public perceptions of the accident are influenced by the current topic of public opinion (Ahmed & Hall, 2017; Forde & Wilson, 2018). During the outbreak period, the topic of public opinion stemmed from information directly related to the accident’s real-time coverage, focusing on real-time coverage of crisis events such as human casualties. The repetition period saw a more rational and in-depth public discussion of the accident. The topic of public opinion included both authoritative information such as official statements of responsibility and minute details such as herdsmen helping the injured. In the fading period, the increasing frequency of sports event emergencies led to extended public thinking. The topic of public opinion revolved around a reflective call to improve safety management systems and emergency response mechanisms for sports events.

Third, the evolution of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies is mainly influenced by emotional resonance, accident review and extended reflection. Psychological distance and empathy influence the public’s judgment of information about sports accidents (Jang et al., 2020). The public was more concerned about the search for and rescue of stranded runners than notifications of the cause of the accident. After receiving information about the heavy casualties among the runners, there was extreme public discontent with the race officials and strong empathy for the fallen runners. In addition, accident review is the key to deepening online opinions on major sports event emergencies. More understanding of the details of the crisis allows the public to view the accident more holistically (Williams, 2017). The mishandling of the race’s official aftermath led to a deterioration in the situation, prompting public demands that they be held legally accountable. However, the easing of emotions allowed the public to take a more holistic view of the accident, focusing on the negative information while praising the courage of the herders in helping the injured. Finally, extended reflections drove the extension of online public opinion. Discontent can lead to public reflection and calls for improvement (Musio, 2015). Current event management that does not meet public expectations has led to public reflections on the causes of accidents and the inadequacy of event systems. As a result, public opinion has called for system improvements and reforms.

Theoretical Contribution

First, this study reveals the cyclical characteristics of the evolution of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies. It expands the application of crisis life cycle theory in online opinion research on sports event emergencies. Current research analyzes online opinions on sports event emergencies from a single perspective in time, ignoring the variability of public attitudes (Rek-Woźniak & Woźniak, 2020; Skoglund et al., 2017). To address this issue, our study assesses the change in sentiment heat of online public opinion after a sports accident from a time-dynamic perspective. Crisis life cycle theory asserts that the evolution of public opinion can be divided into four stages: the sign phase, the outbreak phase, the continuation phase and the recovery phase (Fink, 1986). In contrast, our findings differ from traditional theory and show three stages of development: the outbreak phase, the repetition phase and the fading phase. This reveals that the public pays close attention to accidents and is more willing to comment during the accident information phase. Under the influence of rapid transmission and diffusion of internet information, the outbreak of public opinion on major sports event emergencies also develops rapidly, and there are almost no signs of public opinion outbreaks. This finding responds to the theoretical call by McCarthy (2013) for a study of the evolutionary pattern of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies. A contribution is highlighted to the exploration of the nature and internal logic of public opinion evolution in sports event emergencies, which expands the framework and application boundaries of crisis life cycle theory in online opinion research on sports event emergencies.

Second, our study confirms the multistage influencing factors and process mechanisms of the evolution of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies based on a dynamic perspective. It clarifies the vertical evolutionary logic of online opinion on sports event emergencies. Current references focus on the impact of single factors on online public opinion of major sports event emergencies, such as negative public opinion backlash, irrelevant information interference and aggressive online news coverage (Allison et al., 2020; Forde & Wilson, 2018; Galily & Tamir, 2014). It raises difficulties in fully explaining the multistage evolutionary triggers of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies (Vegara-Ferri et al., 2021). Furthermore, few studies are likely to analyze the multistage factors contributing to the evolution of online public opinion from a dynamic perspective. Unlike previous studies, this study uses big data qualitative coding to identify multiple causal factors for the evolution of online public opinion at different stages. It systematically reveals the multistage evolutionary logic of the evolution of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies from emotional resonance to accident review to extended reflection.

Third, the theoretical system and content framework for the study of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies are expanded through a mixed research approach. It provides new ideas and concepts for the methods in the study of major sports event emergencies. Current research has focused on the communication medium (McCarthy, 2013; Popp et al., 2017), communication characteristics (Galily & Tamir, 2014; Moreau et al., 2021) and communication impact (Ahmed & Hall, 2017; Forde & Wilson, 2018). A predominantly theoretical discussion exists, with inadequate explanation and empirical testing of the phenomenon being studied. The evolutionary laws and process mechanisms of online public opinion are not fully clarified. This study conducts mixed quantitative and qualitative research based on online big data to expand the framework of research on online public opinion of sports event emergencies. It reveals the mechanisms of the evolution of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies and deepens the research depth of the evolution rules of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies.

Managerial Implications

First, public opinion contingency plans are formulated to prevent the evolution of public opinion stages. Under the influence of the instantaneous and interactive nature of online media (McCarthy, 2013; Popp et al., 2017), there are no obvious signs of an outbreak of public opinion on a major sports event emergency, and public opinion develops quickly in a short period of time after the accident. Therefore, event management should analyze past sports event emergencies, summarize relevant experience in crisis response and strengthen the prediction of the nature and scale of public opinion. It is a significant way to develop in advance a crisis warning plan to calm the public during the outbreak period, respond to public demands during the repetition period and prevent secondary crises during the fading period. Furthermore, managers should consider improving the speed of emergency plan activation and preparing for public opinion response and risk avoidance.

Second, monitor the evolution of public opinion phases and prepare for emergency response. The public becomes emotional during public outbursts and reacts violently to negative information (McGehee et al., 2020). Real-time updates on the rescue situation should be provided to proactively respond to public concerns about emergencies. We provide an explanation of the cause, course and effects of the accident to reduce negative public speculation (Abeza et al., 2015). Sustainably, after initially calming the public’s anxiety (McGehee et al., 2020), it is important to prevent the dissemination of negative public opinion during the repetition and fading periods to avoid secondary crises. Public opinion is monitored through new media platforms such as information apps and portals to identify accident-related information to curb undesirable online opinions and behaviors such as personal attacks, rumor spreading, invasion of privacy and malicious comments and guide public opinion toward rationality.

Third, improve the recovery work and propose practical improvements. After the notification of the accident during the public opinion fading period, recovery work should be done (Kennedy et al., 2019). A stern response to the public’s close attention should be made according to the accident investigation and the pursuit of responsibility under the law. Managers are expected to summarize the causes of the accident and present the public with an accurate admission of fault and the means to correct it (Lee Ludvigsen, 2022). Additionally, the improvement plan is released through authoritative media to dispel public doubts, rebuild public trust and reshape the safety management system and emergency response mechanisms for sports event emergencies in conjunction with public appeals.

Limitations and Future Research Suggestions

This study combines quantitative analysis of big data and qualitative research methods to provide theoretical guidance for revealing the evolutionary characteristics and process mechanisms of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies. However, the following limitations remain. First, this study strictly follows the qualitative analysis steps of three-level coding and uses grounded theory to conduct an exploratory analysis of the factors influencing online public opinion on major sports event emergencies. The validity of the theoretical framework can be further confirmed through other quantitative research methods (Skoglund et al., 2017). Second, the Gansu Baiyin Marathon accident is the case through which the evolution pattern and process mechanisms of online public opinion on sports event emergencies are explored. Future cross-validation can be conducted through multiple study cases (Zhang et al., 2019). Third, we summarize the evolutionary pattern of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies from a temporal perspective. The spatial dynamics of online public opinion on major sports event emergencies need to be considered and their causes explored from a spatial-geographical perspective (Jose, 2018).

Footnotes

Acknowledgements

None

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant No.: 42201237].

ORCID iDs

Wen-Qi Ruan

Shu-Ning Zhang

Data Availability Statement

Data sharing not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study.

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