Determinants of populist voting in Pakistan: An analysis of PTI first-win constituencies in the 2018 general elections

Abstract

Populist voting behavior is a relatively new research area with most studies concentrated on European and American voters, despite electoral successes of populist parties in illiberal and hybrid democracies of Asia. The research fills this gap by outlining the determinants of populist voting in Pakistan through constituency-based analysis of electoral data of the 2018 general elections when a Pakistani populist party, Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaaf, won the elections. The research compares the ideational framework with the strategic framework of populism, examining whether voting for a populist party is determined by the political ideology or attitude of the voters or the mobilization strategy of the party built upon the sociopolitical realities of the region. The focus is on constituencies where PTI was successful for the first time. Based on the analysis of eight such constituencies, both rural and urban, the study concludes that neither the PTI voters’ profile matches the sociodemographic profile of the populist voter mentioned in literature nor their voting decisions seem to be guided by anti-elitist attitude common among European or Latin American populist voters. The research outlines two major factors that can explain the victory of PTI: the politics of electables and the mobilization of non-voters, indicating that the strategic lens of populism better explains voting for PTI.