Dynamic scenario modelling of the role and influence of Brundtland and vulnerability upon sustainability in the UK in the Anthropocene

Abstract

The Brundtland report and vulnerability are two of the fundamental perspectives of the environment-human system and relationship. However, the Brundtland report and its incarnations has been argued as anthropocentric in nature and fostering weak sustainability, thus resulting in vulnerability occurring. Furthermore, how the report and its incarnations has been interpreted and implemented by governments, businesses, and organisations is significant in determining sustainability outcomes. It is therefore appropriate and necessary to develop a fundamental dynamic understanding of how Brundtland and vulnerability over time may influence past and present-day sustainability outcomes at specified spatial scale. Consequently, building upon previous research, this paper develops a fundamental dynamic scenario model for the United Kingdom using the Sustainability Dynamics Framework. The model indicates that the UK has been significantly influenced by its interpretation and implementation of the Brundtland report, which has primarily focussed upon the economic and social development aspects. This has resulted in the present-day very weak to weak sustainability occurring for Brundtland-based factors, and weak unsustainability occurring for vulnerability factors. Based upon the historical and present-day modelled scenarios, the paper concludes that the UK is at a tipping point in respect to its environment-human system and relationship. A fundamental transformation is necessary to return the UK to optimum or below-optimum environment-human system thresholds and a more conducive co-evolutionary relationship. Unless this happens, then the risk of significant stress within the environment-human system will only continue to increase, with the possibility of a systemic crisis occurring, or possibly an environmental or societal collapse in the worst-case scenario.