Global and regional trends and projections of chronic pain from 1990 to 2035: Analyses based on global burden of diseases study 2019

Abstract

Background

Chronic pain poses a significant public health challenge. We present the global and regional data on Prevalence, Incidence and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) for Chronic pain from the Global burden of disease (GBD) study 2019 data and analyze their associations with Socio-demographic index (SDI), age, and gender, and the future trends from 2020 to 2035.

Methods

Regional trends in the burden of chronic pain and its association with age, gender, and SDI were assessed from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint analysis was employed to describe trends in chronic pain burden across different SDI regions. Additionally, the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model (BAPC) was used for predicting future trends. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs were employed to quantify the burden of chronic pain.

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, a significant increase was observed in global prevalence and YLDs rates of chronic pain. Higher rates were found among females, whereas a faster rise was noted among males. Notably, Low Back Pain (LBP) and Migraine accounted for predominant YLDs globally, particularly among those aged 75 and above. A notable prevalence of Tension-type Headache (TTH) was observed among younger populations. Furthermore, ASRs for chronic pain were highest in high-SDI regions. Projections suggest an increase in headache ASRs globally for both genders from 2020 to 2035.

Conclusion

From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of chronic pain increased significantly, with projections indicating a continued rise in headache burden over the next 15 years, underscoring the need for heightened attention to these issues.

Keywords

Bayesian age-period-cohort model chronic pain global burden of diseases study headache incidence musculoskeletal disorders prevalence socio-demographic index years lived with disability

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