Forecasting timber prices with ARIMA model and factors influencing the price of timber in Czechia

Abstract

This study focuses on the analysis of the price development of sawlogs of grade III quality A/B in the Czech Republic for the period 2005–2024 and on the prediction of their future development using the ARIMA model (1,1,1). The analysis of the historical data showed considerable price volatility, with the minimum value recorded in the third quarter of 2020 (CZK 1303/m³) and the maximum value in the third quarter of 2022 (CZK 3084/m³). The average price was CZK 1982/m³ with a standard deviation of CZK 1384.66/m³. The forecast shows a slight increase in prices until 2027, with projected values ranging between CZK 2377/ m³ and CZK 2457/m³. The weak negative correlation between price and quantity harvested indicates the influence of other factors such as global demand, seasonality and market regulation. The study provides evidence for strategic planning in the forestry and wood processing sector.