Identification of Suitable Areas for Camellia nitidissima in China Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios Provides Insights for Its Conservation

Abstract

The Camellia nitidissima C.W. Chi, a globally endangered species, is classified as a first-class protected plant in China. Given the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of species on a larger scale, it is crucial to understand the responses of C. nitidissima to this phenomenon for resource protection and sustainable utilization. Based on the existing records of C. nitidissima and multi-source remote sensing data, the optimal MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential habitat of C. nitidissima in both current and future periods. The results indicate that November average maximum temperature(Tx11) is the dominant factor. Under current climate conditions, the potential habitat of C. nitidissima is primarily located in the humid and hot coastal areas of southern China. Under future climate scenarios, the distribution range of C. nitidissima will initially increase, then decrease and finally increase again in correlation with radiation intensity. Comprehensive analysis reveals that under the background of global climate change, there remain significant challenges for the survival and reproduction of C. nitidissima in China. Appropriate protection and utilization measures can be implemented based on its migration trends to ensure the continuity of C. nitidissima habitats.

Keywords

MaxEnt potential habitat future change

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