Temporal Changes in the Distribution and Habitat of Two High Value Native Nance Trees in the Yucatan Peninsula: Byrsonima bucidifolia Standl. and Byrsonima crassifolia (L.) Kunth

Abstract

Background: Of critical importance for their conservation, we evaluate whether habitats whitin the current potential distributions of the nances or nan che’s trees (Byrsonima bucidifolia and Byrsonima crassifolia), have been reduced in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Although land use change represents a constant threat and there are georeferenced historical records of both species, the impact of this transformation on their potential distribution has not been quantitatively evaluated, nor have the environmental factors that influence their habitat suitability. Methods: Species distribution models were used to determine the environmental suitability patterns and potential distribution of the nances. Based on this, cross tabulation matrices and annual land use change rates were used to evaluate the changes that took place between 2001 and 2018. Results: The most suitable environment for B. bucidifolia is located in the east of the Yucatan Peninsula, while for B. crassifolia this is located in the west and south of this region. In the Yucatan Peninsula, tropical low deciduous forest and savanna showed the greatest reduction in area and the highest negative annual rate of land use change. Conclusion: This study contributes to ecological knowledge by demonstrating how a native tree species responds differently to environmental variables, as well as the impacts that anthropogenic pressures at the regional scale have had on their potential distribution over time. Conservation Implications: Understanding these aspects is essential for the conservation of underutilized native fruit trees of sociocultural, and economic value. Strategies such as strengthening knowledge about their distributional ecology and integrating sociocultural aspects to preserve the habitats of these species are proposed.