To assess the current risk degree and predict the future risk degree of vessel traffic, a novel method is put forward in this study. Different from the existing literature, the available evidence of vessel traffic is directly transformed into the weighted basic probabilistic assignment (BPA) based on the optimal solution to the intersection of fuzzy membership functions in the framework of D-S evidence theory. The matrix deformation algorithm towards the combination rule makes the time complexity low in the process of the risk degree assessment. With respect to the risk degree prediction, the required Sigma points are effectively extracted. We derive the adaptive filtering gain that is suitable for the rapidly changing BPA. Finally, the experiments of vessel traffic in the Dalin Bay are made to indicate performance of the proposed method.
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