The impact of weather variability in inducing missed chances: A statistical insight for fielding coaches in cricket

Abstract

In cricket, fielding performance often plays a crucial role in determining match outcomes, and missed chances, such as dropped catches, missed run-outs, and stumpings, often become the fine line between victory and defeat. While skill-related factors underlying such events have been widely discussed, relatively little attention has been given to the role of external match conditions. The study examines the relationship between weather-related variables and missed opportunities in professional cricket by analyzing match-level data across multiple leagues. Descriptive analysis indicates that teams, on average, miss two chances per match, with notable variation across leagues. To assess the relationship between weather conditions and missed chances, a Poisson regression model with fixed league effects is employed. The results reveal that temperature, dew, and match timing are significantly associated with the frequency of missed chances. The study also conducts a robustness check by incorporating a fixed ground effect, confirming the model's generalizability. The findings provide empirical insights into how environmental conditions influence fielding outcomes and offer practical implications for the preparation strategies of coaches and players under varying weather conditions.