One of the most important career decisions for a legislator is the decision to switch parties, and it raises a theoretical puzzle: it carries significant risk, yet sometimes legislators do change partisan affiliation. We elucidate this puzzle with the first-ever systematic comparison of the entire careers of state legislative switchers and non-switchers in the American South, where the high prevalence of party switching coincided with rapid realignment toward the Republican Party. Our analysis is the first to evaluate all post-switch career decisions (retiring, running for reelection, running for higher office) simultaneously, and it is the broadest in its scope with two full decades of career data. We demonstrate that converts to the Grand Old Party (GOP) pay a reelection cost. However, they are less likely to retire than Democratic non-switchers and more likely to seek higher office. This latter finding is especially strong during the earlier part of our study—when the Republican bench in the South was not as deep and competition for the party label was not as intense. Our findings suggest that political ambition motivates legislators to trade short-term electoral costs for a more promising long-term electoral career with the ascendant party.
AldrichJohn H.2011. Why Parties? A Second Look. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
2.
BlackEarlBlackMerle. 2002. The Rise of Southern Republicans. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
3.
BracePaul. 1984. “Progressive Ambition in the House: A Probabilistic Approach.” Journal of Politics46:556–71.
4.
BracePaul. 1985. “A Probabilisitc Approach to Retirement from the U.S. Congress.” Legislative Studies Quarterly10:107–23.
5.
CanonDavid T.1990. Actors, Athletes, and Astronauts: Political Amateurs in the United States Congress. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
6.
CanonDavid T.1992. “The Emergence of the Republican Party in the South, from 1964 to 1988.” In The Atomistic Congress: An Interpretation of Congressional Change, eds. HertzkeAllen D.PetersRonald M.Jr. Armonk: M.E. Sharpe, 73–105.
7.
CanonDavid T.SousaDavid J.1992. “Party System Change and Political Career Structures in the U.S. Congress.” Legislative Studies Quarterly17:347–63.
8.
CareyJohn M.NiemiRichard G.PowellLynda W.1998. “The Effects of Term Limits on State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly23:271–300.
9.
CareyJohn M.NiemiRichard G.PowellLynda W.2000. “Incumbency and the Probability of Reelection in State Legislative Elections.” Journal of Politics62:671–700.
10.
CarminesEdward G.StimsonJames A.1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
11.
CarsonJamieCrespinMichaelEavesCarrieWanlessEmily. 2011. “Constituency Congruency and Candidate Competition in U.S. House Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly36:461–82.
12.
CastleDavidFettPatrick J.2000. “Member Goals and Party Switching in the U.S. Congress.” In Congress on Display, Congress at Work, eds. BiancoWilliam T.Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 231–41.
13.
DesposatoScott W.2006. “Parties for Rent? Ambition, Ideology, and Party Switching in Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies.” American Journal of Political Science50:62–80.
14.
EvansKevinPetersonRolfeHadleyNathan. 2012. “Principled or Opportunist? Perceptions of Arlen Specter and His Party Switch During the 2010 Midterm Election.” American Politics Research40:880–902.
15.
FennoRichard F.Jr.1978. Home Style: House Members in their Districts. Boston: Little, Brown.
16.
FennoRichard F.Jr.2000. Congress at the Grassroots: Representational Change in the South, 1970-1998. Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press.
17.
FleisherRichardBondJon R.2004. “The Shrinking Middle in the US Congress.” British Journal of Political Science34:429–51.
18.
ForgetteRichardGarnerAndrewWinkleJohn. 2012. “The Voting Rights Act, Legislative Elections, and Southern Partisan Change: Conversion or Competition.” Social Science Quarterly93:291–308.
19.
GlaserJames M.1996. Race, Campaign Politics, and the Realignment in the South. New Haven: Yale University Press.
20.
GlaserJames M.2001. “When Legislators Change Sides: The Implications of Party Defections in the South.” In Eye of the Storm: The South and Congress in an Era of Change, eds. KuzenskiJohn C.MorelandLaurence W.SteedRobert P.Westport: Praeger, 69–80.
21.
GlaserJames M.2006. “The Primary Runoff as a Remnant of the Old South.” Electoral Studies25:776–90.
22.
GroseChristian R.2004. “Is it Better to Join the Majority? The Electoral Effects of Party Switching by Incumbent Southern State Legislators, 1972-2000.” American Review of Politics25:79–98.
23.
GroseChristian R.YoshinakaAntoine. 2003. “The Electoral Consequences of Party Switching by Incumbent Members of Congress, 1947-2000.” Legislative Studies Quarterly28:55–75.
24.
HayesDannyMcKeeSeth C.2008. “Toward A One-Party South?” American Politics Research36:3–32.
25.
HeardAlexander. 1952. A Two-party South?Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press.
26.
HellerWilliam B.MershonCarol. 2005. “Party Switching in the Italian Chamber of Deputies.” Journal of Politics67:536–59.
27.
HellerWilliam B.MershonCarol, eds. 2009. Political Parties and Legislative Party Switching. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
28.
HerrickRebekahMooreMichael K.1993. “Political Ambition’s Effect on Legislative Behavior: Schlesinger’s Typology Reconsidered and Revisited.” Journal of Politics55:765–76.
29.
HibbingJohn R.1982. “Voluntary Retirement from the U.S. House of Representatives: Who Quits?”American Journal of Political Science26:467–84.
30.
HibbingJohn R.1986. “Ambition in the House: Behavorial Consequences of Higher Office Goals Among U.S. Representatives.” American Journal of Political Science30:651–65.
31.
HirschmanAlbert O.1970. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
32.
HoganRobert E.2004. “Challenger Emergence, Incumbent Success, and Electoral Accountability in State Legislative Elections.” Journal of Politics66:1283–1303.
33.
HoganRobert E.2008. “Policy Responsiveness and Incumbent Reelection in State Legislatures.” American Journal of Political Science52:858–73.
34.
HoodM. V.IIIKiddQuentinMorrisIrwin L.2012. The Rational Southerner: Black Mobilization, Republican Growth, and the Partisan Transformation of the American South. New York: Oxford University Press.
35.
HoodM. V.IIIMcKeeSeth C.2015. “Sunshine State Dilemma: Voting for the 2014 Governor of Florida.” Electoral Studies40:293–99.
36.
KarolDavid. 2009. Party Position Change in American Politics: Coalition Management. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
37.
KerevelYann P.2014. “Loyalty and Disloyalty in the Mexican Party System.” Latin American Politics and Society56:93–117.
38.
KeyValdimer OrlandoJr.1949. Southern Politics in State and Nation. New York: Alfred Knopf.
39.
KiewietD. RoderickZengLangche. 1993. “An Analysis of Congressional Career Decisions.” American Political Science Review87:928–41.
KousserJ. Morgan. 1974. The Shaping of Southern Politics: Suffrage Restriction and the Establishment of the One-party South, 1880-1910. New Haven: Yale University Press.
43.
LublinDavidVossD. Stephen. 2000. “Boll-Weevil Blues: Polarized Congressional Delegations into the 21st Century.” American Review of Politics21:427–50.
44.
MayhewDavid R.1974. Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven: Yale University Press.
45.
McKeeSeth C.2010. Republican Ascendancy in Southern U.S. House Elections. Boulder: Westview Press.
46.
McKeeSeth C.2012. “The Past, Present, and Future of Southern Politics.” Southern Cultures18:95–117.
47.
McKeeSeth C.SpringerMelanie J.2015. “A Tale of ‘Two Souths’: White Voting Behavior in Comtemporary Southern Elections.” Social Science Quarterly96:588–607.
48.
McKeeSeth C.YoshinakaAntoine. 2015. “Late to the Parade: Party Switchers in Contemporary US Southern Legislatures.” Party Politics21:957–69.
49.
MershonCarol. 2014. “Legislative Party Switching.” In Oxford Handbook of Legislative Studies, eds. MartinShaneSaalfeldThomasStrømKaare W.Oxford: Oxford University Press, 418–35.
50.
MershonCarolShvetsovaOlga. 2013. Party System Change in Legislatures Worldwide: Moving Outside the Electoral Arena. New York: Cambridge University Press.
51.
MoncriefGary F.NiemiRichard G.PowellLynda W.2004. “Time, Term Limits, and Turnover: Trends in Membership Stability in U.S. State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly29:357–81.
52.
MyersAdam S.2018. “Changing Patterns of Uncontested Seats in Southern State Legislative Elections, 1984-2012.” Social Science Quarterly99:583–98.
53.
O’BrienDiana Z.ShomerYael. 2013. “A Cross-National Analysis of Party Switching.” Legislative Studies Quarterly38:111–41.
54.
PereiraCarlosRennoLucio. 2003. “Successful Re-Election Strategies in Brazil: The Electoral Impact of Distinct Institutional Incentives.” Electoral Studies22:425–48.
55.
PetrocikJohn R.1987. “Realignment: New Party Coalitions and the Nationalization of the South.” Journal of Politics49:347–75.
56.
PolsbyNelson W.2004. How Congress Evolves: Social Bases of Institutional Change. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
57.
RohdeDavid W.1979. “Risk-Bearing and Progressive Ambition: The Case of Members on the United States House of Representatives.” American Journal of Political Science23:1–26.
58.
RohdeDavid W.1991. Parties and Leaders in the Postreform House. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
59.
SchlesingerJoseph A.1966. Ambition and Politics. Chicago: Rand McNally.
60.
SeviSemraYoshinakaAntoineBlaisAndré. 2018. “Legislative Party Switching and the Changing Nature of the Canadian Party System, 1867-2015.” Canadian Journal of Political Science. 51:665-95.
ShorBorisTomkowiakMateusz. 2010. “The Causes and Consequences of Party Switching in American State Legislatures.” Paper presented at the State Politics and Policy Conference, Springfield, April. Accessed January 10, 2019. http://www.filedropper.com/shorandtomkowiak.
63.
SquirePeverill. 1992. “Legislative Professionalization and Membership Diversity in State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly17:69–79.
64.
TheriaultSean M.1998. “Moving Up or Moving Out: Career Ceilings and Congressional Retirement.” Legislative Studies Quarterly23:419–33.
65.
TheriaultSean M.2008. Party Polarization in Congress. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
66.
YoshinakaAntoine. 2012. “Party Building in the South through Conversion.” In The Oxford Handbook of Southern Politics, eds. BullockCharles S.IIIRozellMark J.New York: Oxford University Press, 355–81.
67.
YoshinakaAntoine. 2016. Crossing the Aisle: Party Switching by U.S. Legislators in the Postwar Era. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
