We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of strategic momentum and psychological momentum in best-of-three contests between players with unequal skills. As a theoretical benchmark, we develop a fully rational model of best-of-three contests and define psychological momentum as systematic deviation from the theoretical equilibrium. An empirical analysis of 66,262 professional tennis matches from 2002 to 2020 shows that our theoretical model closely matches first set outcomes, which is when set-level psychological momentum is absent. Overall, the empirical results show that both strategic momentum and psychological momentum contribute to the outcomes of best-of-three tennis contests.
AdlerP.AdlerP. (1978). The Role of Momentum in Sport. Journal of Contemporary Ethnography, 7(2), 153–175.
2.
Bar-EliM.AvugosS.RaabM. (2006). Twenty Years of “Hot Hand” Research: Review and Critique. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 7(6), 525–553. doi:10.1016/j.psychsport.2006.03.001
3.
BergerJ.NiekenP. (2016). Heterogeneous Contestants and the Intensity of Tournaments: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Sports Economics, 17(7), 631–660. doi:10.1177/1527002514538639
4.
BergerJ.PopeD. (2011). Can Losing Lead to Winning?Management Science, 57(5), 817–827. doi:10.1287/mnsc.1110.1328
5.
BerkowitzJ.P.DepkenC.A.GandarJ.M. (2018). The Conversion of Money Lines into Win Probabilities: Reconciliations and Simplifications.Journal of Sports Economics, 19(7), 990–1015.
6.
CainM.LawD.PeelD. (2003). The Favourite-longshot Bias, Bookmaker Margins and Insider Trading in a Variety of Betting Markets. Bulletin of Economic Research, 55(3), 263–273. doi:10.1111/1467-8586.00174
7.
Cohen-ZadaD.KrumerA.ShtudinerZ. (2017a). Psychological Momentum and Gender. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 135(1), 66–81. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2017.01.009
8.
Cohen-ZadaD.KrumerA.RosenboimM.ShapirO. (2017b). Choking Under Pressure and Gender: Evidence From Professional Tennis. Journal of Economic Psychology, 61(1), 176–190. doi:10.1016/j.joep.2017.04.005
9.
RuudDen HartighGernigonC. (2018). Time-out! How Psychological Momentum Builds Up and Breaks Down in Table Tennis. Journal of Sports Sciences, 36(23), 2732–2737. doi:10.1080/02640414.2018.1477419
10.
de PaolaM.ScoppaV. (2017). Gender Differences in Reaction to Psychological Pressure: Evidence From Tennis Players. European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, 26(3), 444–456. doi:10.1080/1359432X.2017.1307178
11.
DepkenC.GandarJ.ShapiroD. (2021). Set-Level Strategic and Psychological Momentum in Best-of-Five Matches in Professional Tennis. Applied Economics Letters, 1–5. forthcoming.
12.
FengX.LuJ. (2017). Uniqueness of Equilibrium in Two-player Asymmetric Tullock Contests with Intermediate Discriminatory Power. Economics Letters, 159, 61–64. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2017.07.017
13.
FerrallC.Smith JrA. (1999). A Sequential Game Model of Sports Championship Series: Theory and Estimation. Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(4), 704–719. doi:10.1162/003465399558427
14.
GauriotR.PageL. (2018). Psychological Momentum in Contests: The Case of Scoring Before Half-time in Football. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 149(1), 137–168. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2018.02.015
15.
GauriotR.PageL. (2019). Does Success Breed Success? A Quasi-Experiment on Strategic Momentum in Dynamic Contests. Economic Journal, 129(624), 3107–3136. doi:10.1093/ej/uez040
16.
Gonzalez-DiazJ.GossnerO.RogersB. W. (2012). Performing Best when it Matters Most: Evidence From Professional Tennis. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 84(3), 767–781. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2012.09.021
17.
GilovichT.ValloneR.TverskyA. (1985). The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17(3), 295–314. doi:10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6
18.
JacksonD.MosurskiK. (1997). Heavy Defeats in Tennis: Psychological Momentum of Random Effect. Chance, 10(2), 27–34.
19.
JullienB.SalaniéB. (1994). Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading: A Comment on Shin. Economic Journal, 104(427), 1418–1419. doi:10.2307/2235458
20.
KlumppT.PolbornM. K. (2006). Primaries and the New Hampshire Effect. Journal of Public Economics, 90(6-7), 1073–1114. doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2005.08.009
21.
KoningR. H. (2011). Home Advantage in Professional Tennis. Journal of Sports Sciences, 29(1), 19–27.
22.
KrumerA (2013). Best-of-two Contests with Psychological Effects. Theory and decision, 75(1), 85–100. doi:10.1007/s11238-012-9313-8
23.
LeachA (2003). SubGame, Set, and Match: Identifying Incentive Response in a Tournament. mimeo. HEC Montreal.
24.
LinL (1989). A Concordance Correlation Coefficient to Evaluate Reproducibility. Biometrics, 45(1), 255–268.
25.
MagoS.SheremetaR.YatesA. (2013). Best-of-three Contest Experiments: Strategic Versus Psychological Momentum. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 31(3), 287–296. doi:10.1016/j.ijindorg.2012.11.006
26.
MaluegD.YatesA. (2010). Testing Contest Theory: Evidence From Bets-of-Three Tennis Matches. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(3), 689–692. doi:10.1162/REST_a_00021
27.
McBrideG.B. (2005). A Proposal for Strength-of-Agreement Criteria for Lin’s Concordance Correlation Coefficient. NIWA Client Report: HAM2005-062; National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research: Hamilton, New Zealand, available at www.medcalc.org/download/pdf/McBride2005.pdf, accessed July 2020.
28.
MeierP.FleppR.R’udisserM.FranckE. (2020). Separating Psychological Momentum From Strategic Momentum: Evidence From Men’s Professional Tennis. Journal of Economic Psychology, 78, 1-10. doi:10.1016/j.joep.2020.102269
29.
MillerJ.SanjuroA. (2018). Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers. Econometrica, 86(6), 2019–2047. doi:10.3982/ECTA14943
30.
MorgulevE.AzarO.GalilyY.Bar-EliM. (2020a). The Role of Initial Success in Competition: An Analysis of Early Lead Effects in NBA Overtimes. Journal of Economic Psychology, 89(C), 1-6.
31.
MorgulevE.VoslinskyA.AzarO.Bar-EliM. (2020b). Biased Perceptions About Momentum: Do Comeback Teams Have Higher Chances to Win in Basketball Overtimes?. Judgement and Decision Making, 15(4), 545–560.
32.
PageL.CoatesJ. (2017). Winner and Loser Effects in Human Competitions: Evidence From Equally Matched Tennis Players. Evolution and Human Behavior, 38(4), 53–535. doi:10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2017.02.003
33.
RosenS (1986). Prizes and Incentives in Elimination Tournaments. American Economic Review, 76(3), 701–715.
34.
RottoffK.ZanzalariD.JasinaJ. (2011). What are the Odds? A Measure of the Small Sample Problems. Applied Economics Letters, 18(12), 1139–1143. doi:10.1080/13504851.2010.526570
35.
ShinH (1992). Prices of State Contingent Claims with Insider Trading and the Favourite-longshot Bias. Economic Journal, 102(411), 426–435. doi:10.2307/2234526
36.
ShinH (1993). Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in a Market for State Contingent Claim. Economic Journal, 104(420), 1141–1153. doi:10.2307/2234240
37.
SonnabendH (2020). On Discouraging Environments in Team Contests: Evidence From Top-level Beach Volleyball. Managerial and Decision Economics, 41(6), 986–997. doi:10.1002/mde.3153
38.
StrumbeljE (2014). On Determining Probability Forecasts From Betting Odds. International Journal of Forecasting, 30(4), 934–943. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.008
39.
TullockG (1980). Efficient Rent Seeking. in Toward a Theory of the Rent-Seeking Society, James Buchanan, Robert Tollison, and Gordon Tullock (Eds.)., Texas A&M University Press, College Station.
