The When and Who of Graduation and Dropout Predictors: A Moderated Hazard Analysis

Abstract

This study examined graduation and persistence among social and behavioral science students at a regional comprehensive university. Hazard analyses identified predictors of student trajectories, times at which predictors were more or less impactful, and interactions between predictors such that particular risk factors were more detrimental for certain groups. Results revealed that first-time freshmen and first-time transfer students operate under very different risk models. Total units enrolled and cumulative grade point average emerged as the most salient predictors across all models; however, numerous predictors varied in their salience across time and student subgroup. Differential predictors functioned as risks early versus late in student trajectories. Underrepresented minority status emerged as a risk factor in interaction with other predictors, such that it amplified other risks. These findings suggest that examinations of graduation and persistence must highlight the complex ways in which traditional risk factors interact with time and context to impact student success.