Crime forecasting: A spatio-temporal analysis with deep learning models

Abstract

This study uses deep-learning models to predict city partition crime counts on specific days. It helps police enhance surveillance, gather intelligence, and proactively prevent crimes. We formulate crime count prediction as a spatiotemporal sequence challenge, where both input data and prediction targets are spatiotemporal sequences. In order to improve the accuracy of crime forecasting, we introduce a new model that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. We conducted a comparative analysis to access the effects of various data sequences, including raw and binned data, on the prediction errors of four deep learning forecasting models. Directly inputting raw crime data into the forecasting model causes high prediction errors, making the model unsuitable for real-world use. The findings indicate that the proposed CNN-LSTM model achieves optimal performance when crime data is categorized into 10 or 5 groups. Data binning can enhance forecasting model performance, but poorly defined intervals may reduce map granularity. Compared to dividing into five bins, binning into 10 intervals strikes an optimal balance, preserving data characteristics and surpassing raw data in predictive modeling efficacy.