The temporal relationship between cirrhosis mortality and alcohol consumption in the U.K. is examined using time series techniques that, although widespread in the analysis of economic and financial data, have only been considered sporadically in addiction research. The recent acceleration in cirrhosis mortality in the U.K. over the last decade is found to be primarily related to increases in wine consumption, with beer and spirits playing very much a minor role.
Corrao G
,
Ferrari P
,
Zambon A
and
Torchio P
(1997)
Are the recent trends in liver cirrhosis mortality affected by the changes in alcohol consumption? Analysis of latency period in European countries
. Journal of Studies in Alcohol, 58,
486–94
.
2.
Dickey DA
and
Fuller WA
(1979)
Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive series with a unit root
. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74,
427–31
.
3.
Dickey DA
and
Pantula S
(1987)
Determining the order of differencing in autoregressive processes
. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5,
455–61
.
4.
Engle RF
and
Granger CWJ
(1987)
Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing
. Econometrica, 55,
251–76
.
5.
Ericsson NR
and
MacKinnon JG
(2002)
Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration
. Econometrics Journal, 5,
285–318
.
6.
Greunewald PJ
(2000)
The epiphenomena of beverage-specific effects
. Addiction, 95,
347–50
.
7.
Greunewald PJ
and
Ponicki WR
(1995)
The relationship of alcohol sales to cirrhosis mortality
. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 56,
635–41
.
8.
Kerr WC
,
Fillmore KM
and
Marvy P
(2000)
Beverage-specific alcohol consumption and cirrhosis mortality in a group of English-speaking beer-drinking countries
. Addiction, 95,
339–46
.
9.
Leon DA
and
McCambridge J
(2006)
Liver cirrhosis mortality rates in Britain from 1950 to 2002: an analysis of routine data
. The Lancet, 367,
52–6
.
10.
Leybourne SJ
and
McCabe BPM
(1993)
A simple test for cointegration
. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 55,
97–103
.
11.
Leybourne SJ
,
Mills TC
and
Newbold P
(1998)
Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null
. Journal of Econometrics, 87,
191–203
.
12.
MacKinnon JG
(1996)
Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests
. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11,
601–18
.
13.
Norström T
(1987)
The impact of per capita consumption on Swedish cirrhosis mortality
, British Journal of Addiction, 82,
67–75
.
14.
Norström T
and
Ramstedt M
(2005)
Mortality and population drinking: a review of the literature
. Drug and Alcohol Review, 24,
537–47
.
15.
Norström T
and
Skog O-J
(2001)
Alcohol and mortality: methodological and analytical issues in aggregate analyses
. Addiction96 (Suppl. 1),
S19–S34
.
16.
Ramstedt M
(2001)
Per capita consumption and liver cirrhosis mortality in 14 European countries
. Addiction96 (Suppl. 1),
S19–S34
.
17.
Rehm J
and
Gmel G
(2001)
Aggregate time-series regression in the field of alcohol
. Addiction, 96,
945–54
.
18.
Rehm J
,
Gmel G
and
Her M
(2000)
Alcohol consumption, time-series methodology and disease outcomes
. Addiction, 95,
352–54
.
19.
Room R
(2006)
British livers and British alcohol policy
. The Lancet, 367,
10–1
.
20.
Skog O-J
(1984)
The risk function for liver cirrhosis from lifetime alcohol consumption
. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 45,
199–208
.