Economic voting in European elections: Explaining abstention and support for Eurosceptic parties

Abstract

The theory of economic voting has been successfully applied to elections on different electoral levels. Less attention has been paid to the association between economic evaluations and the vote choice in European elections. In this study, we argue that economic perceptions can matter in European elections beyond rewarding or punishing the national incumbent. Instead of punishing incumbent parties, we examine electoral abstention and voting for Eurosceptic parties as a way of expressing dissatisfaction. Furthermore, we combine assessments of the national economy and the attribution of responsibility for these conditions to the European level. The findings show that voters are more likely to either abstain or to support Eurosceptic parties when they are more negative about the economic conditions in their country, but only if they attribute responsibility for these conditions to the European Union.