The article investigates incumbent exit rates of women and men parliamentarians in the national chambers and European Parliament delegations of eight West European countries after elections. Relying on original data, the article uses a multi-level model to analyse the fixed effects of gender, type of delegation, and the politico-institutional context on incumbent exit rates, while also assessing random effects produced at the country level. The study finds that incumbent exit rate of men is significantly higher than women's. However, this result is significant in the European Parliament, not national legislature delegations. Additionally, we find that men are pushed towards the exit by gender quotas and proportional electoral systems. Finally, our findings show different dynamics with respect to countries and types of delegation, thus expanding our understanding of the gendered implications of political careers and institutional frameworks across different parliamentary contexts in Western Europe.
BeckwithK (2007) Numbers and newness: The descriptive and substantive representation of women. Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue Canadienne de Science Politique40(1): 27–49.
2.
BestHCottaM (2000) Parliamentary Representatives in Europe 1848–2000: Legislative Recruitment and Careers in Eleven Countries. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
3.
ButlerDMNaurinEÖhbergP (2022) Constituents ask female legislators to do more. The Journal of Politics84(4): 2278–2282.
4.
ChivaC (2014) Gender, European integration and candidate recruitment: The EP elections in the new EU member states. Parliamentary Affairs67(2): 458–494.
5.
CottaMBestH (2007) Democratic Representation in Europe: Diversity, Change, and Convergence. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
6.
DahlerupD (2006) Women, Quotas, and Politics. London: Routledge.
7.
DanielWT (2015) Career Behaviour and the EP: All Roads Lead Through Brussels?Oxford: Oxford University Press.
8.
DanielWTMetzgerSK (2018) Within or between jobs? Determinants of membership volatility in the EP, 1979–2014. The Journal of Legislative Studies24(1): 90–108.
9.
DarcyRChoikeJR (1986) A formal analysis of legislative turnover: Women candidates and legislative representation. American Journal of Political Science30(1): 237–255.
10.
DöringHQuaasAHesseM, et al. (2023) Parliaments and governments database (ParlGov): Information on parties, elections and cabinets in established democracies. Available at: https://www.parlgov.org (accessed 10 August 2023).
11.
DuvergerM (1955) The Political Role of Women. Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.
12.
EmanueleV (2015) Dataset of Electoral Volatility and its Internal Components in Western Europe (1945-2015). Available at: http://www.vincenzoemanuele.com (accessed 10 August 2023).
13.
EmanueleVAngelucciDMarinoB, et al. (2019) Dataset of Electoral Volatility in the EP elections since 1979. Available at: http://www.vincenzoemanuele.com (accessed 10 August 2023).
14.
EriksonJJosefssonC (2019) Equal playing field? On the intersection between gender and being young in the Swedish parliament. Politics, Groups, and Identities9(1): 81–100.
15.
European University Institute (2023) Gender quotas blog. Available at: https://blogs.eui.eu (accessed 10 August 2023).
16.
Fortin-RittbergerJRittbergerB (2014) Do electoral rules matter? Explaining national differences in women's representation in the EP. European Union Politics15(4): 496–520.
17.
Fortin-RittbergerJRittbergerB (2015) Nominating women for Europe: Exploring the role of political parties’ recruitment procedures for EP elections. European Journal of Political Research54(4): 767–783.
18.
FoxRLLawlessJL (2004) Entering the arena? Gender and the decision to run for office. American Journal of Political Science48(2): 264–280.
19.
FrechE (2025) Gendered exits: The role of parliamentarians, parties and voters in women’s departure from the European Parliament. European Union Politics26(1): 145–166.
20.
FultonSA (2012) Running backwards and in high heels: The gendered quality gap and incumbent electoral success. Political Research Quarterly65(2): 303–314.
21.
FultonSAMaestasCDMaiselLS, et al. (2006) The sense of a woman: Gender, ambition, and the decision to run for congress. Political Research Quarterly59(2): 235–248.
22.
GallagherM (2024) Election Indices. Available at: https://www.tcd.ie (accessed 02 February 2024).
23.
GouglasAMaddensBBransM (2018) Determinants of legislative turnover in Western Europe, 1945–2015. European Journal of Political Research57(3): 637–661.
24.
HixS (1998) The study of the European union II: The ‘new governance’ agenda and its rival. Journal of European Public Policy5(1): 38–65.
25.
HixSMarshM (2011) Second-order effects plus pan-European political swings: An analysis of EP elections across time. Electoral Studies30(1): 4–15.
26.
HögenauerA (2025) Can the European Parliament be a stepping stone into national politics? The gendered career paths of Maltese and Luxembourgish members of the European Parliament. European Union Politics26(1): 96–114.
27.
International IDEA (2023) Gender Quotas Database. Available at: https://www.idea.int (accessed 10 August 2023).
28.
KamCFranzeseRJ (2007) Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
29.
KittilsonMC (1999) Women’s representation in parliament: The role of political parties. Party Politics5(1): 79–98.
30.
KittilsonMCSchwindt-BayerLA (2012) The Gendered Effects of Electoral Institutions: Political Engagement and Participation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
31.
KrookML (2010) Quotas for Women in Politics: Gender and Candidate Selection Reform Worldwide. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
32.
LassébieJ (2020) Gender quotas and the selection of local politicians: Evidence from French municipal elections. European Journal of Political Economy62: 1–24.
33.
LawlessJLFoxRL (2005) It Takes a Candidate: Why Women Don’t Run for Office. New York: Cambridge University Press.
34.
LawlessJLTheriaultSM (2005) Will she stay or will she go? Career ceilings and women's retirement from the US congress. Legislative Studies Quarterly30(4): 581–596.
35.
LovenduskiJNorrisP (1993) Gender and Party Politics. London: Sage.
36.
LühisteMKennyM (2016) Pathways to power: Women's representation in the 2014 EP elections. European Journal of Political Research55(3): 626–641.
37.
LuoWLiHBaekE, et al. (2021) Reporting practice in multilevel modeling: A revisit after 10 years. Review of Educational Research91(3): 311–355.
38.
MarziPVerzichelliL (2023) Professionalised or not? An analysis of career patterns in the EP (1979–2019). The Journal of Legislative Studies: 1–23.
39.
MatlandRE (1993) Institutional variables affecting female representation in national legislatures: The case of Norway. The Journal of Politics55(3): 737–755.
40.
MatlandREStudlarDT (2004) Determinants of legislative turnover: A cross-national analysis. British Journal of Political Science34(1): 87–108.
41.
MayhewD (1974) Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven: Yale University Press.
42.
MuytersGPutGJMaddensB (2022) Gender bias in candidate turnover: A longitudinal analysis of legislative elections in Flanders/Belgium (1987–2019). Party Politics28(6): 1058–1068.
43.
NivenD (1998) Party elites and women candidates: The shape of bias. Women & Politics19(2): 57–80.
44.
NorrisP (1997) Representation and the democratic deficit. European Journal of Political Research32(2): 273–282.
45.
NorrisPLovenduskiJ (1995) Political Recruitment: Gender, Race and Class in the British Parliament. New York: Cambridge University Press.
46.
PalmerBSimonDM (2003) Political ambition and women in the US house of representatives, 1916-2000. Political Research Quarterly56(2): 127–138.
47.
PalmerBSimonDM (2005) When women run against women: The hidden influence of female incumbents in elections to the US house of representatives, 1956–2002. Politics & Gender1(1): 39–63.
48.
PalmerBSimonDM (2006) Breaking the Political Glass Ceiling: Women and Congressional Elections. New York: Routledge.
49.
PearsonKMcGheeE (2013) What it takes to win: Questioning “gender neutral” outcomes in US house elections. Politics & Gender9(4): 439–462.
50.
PiletJBRenwickA (2015) Electoral System Change in Europe Since 1945. Available at: http://www.electoralsystemchanges.eu (accessed 10 August 2023).
51.
RedmondPReganJ (2015) Incumbency advantage in a proportional electoral system: A regression discontinuity analysis of Irish elections. European Journal of Political Economy38: 244–256.
52.
SanbonmatsuK (2002a) Political parties and the recruitment of women to state legislatures. The Journal of Politics64(3): 791–809.
53.
SanbonmatsuK (2002b) Gender stereotypes and vote choice. American Journal of Political Science46(1): 20–34.
54.
ScarrowSE (1997) Political career paths and the EP. Legislative Studies Quarterly22(2): 253–263.
55.
SchlesingerJA (1966) Ambition and Politics: Political Careers in the United States. Chicago: Rand McNally.
56.
SemenovaE (2017) Parliamentary careers in 14 Central and Eastern European countries: Does Gender Matter? In: Women’s parliamentary representation in Eastern Europe Conference, London, UK, 19 May 2017.
57.
SeviS (2023) Is incumbency advantage gendered?Legislative Studies Quarterly48(1): 145–163.
58.
ThamesFC (2017) Understanding the impact of electoral systems on women's representation. Politics & Gender13(3): 379–404.
59.
TrippAMKangA (2008) The global impact of quotas: On the fast track to increased female legislative representation. Comparative Political Studies41(3): 338–361.
60.
Van De WardtMVan WitteloostuijnAChambersA, et al. (2021) Birds of a feather flock together? The survival of underrepresented groups within parliamentary parties, 1991–2015. European Journal of Political Research60(2): 474–496.
61.
VerzichelliL (2018) Degradable elites?: Modes and factors of parliamentary turnover in Europe in the early twenty-first century. In: VogelLGebauerRSalheiserA (eds) The Contested Status of Political Elites: At the Crossroads. London: Routledge, 87–107.
62.
WängnerundL (2007) Women in parliaments: Descriptive and substantive representation. Annual Review of Political Science12(1): 51–69.
63.
WeeksAC (2018) Why are gender quota laws adopted by men? The role of inter-and intraparty competition. Comparative Political Studies51(14): 1935–1973.
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
