Why Clinton Won and Dukakis Lost

Abstract

This article examines the change in the presidential fortunes of the US Democratic Party from 1988 to 1992. It focuses on the role of presidential candidates as the key dynamic aspect of American party politics. The analysis recognizes that candidates can influence the vote in several ways, including their personal attributes, ideological positions and policy and performance issues that are associated with them. For many American voters, the presidential candidates are the party. Contrary to the fears of many, candidate-centered politics have not led to presidential elections being determined by the personalities of the nominees. Nor has the decline of party politics led to ideological volatility, with the deciding factor being how closely candidates position themselves to the median voter. The major reason why Clinton won and Dukakis lost was that domestic issues favored Vice President Bush in 1988 but worked against President Bush in 1992.