Have populist right supporters’ views on refugee policy radicalized under the Ukrainian crisis? Evidence from a three-wave survey experiment

Abstract

This paper examines the refugee policy preferences of supporters of anti-Russia and pro-Russia populist right parties (PRPs) and mainstream parties (MPs) in Germany, Poland, and Hungary during the Ukrainian refugee crisis. We use cross-sectional quota representative and panel (re-contact) samples from a unique three-wave survey experiment covering both EU-level (allocation of refugees, EU border protection) and national-level dimensions (access to the labour market, freedom of movement, and policy cost for an average household) of asylum policy. We compare these preferences before, immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and 2 years later. We demonstrate that the Ukrainian refugee crisis did not cause a polarisation of anti-Russia and pro-Russia PRP supporters, and MP supporters either short or long term. Instead, the electorates converged on restrictions to admission of refugees and their freedom of movement, accompanied by liberalization of their access to the labour market. These results highlight the need for multidimensional measures of policy preferences, and longitudinal designs, to provide a nuanced and context-specific understanding of the dynamic of public opinion on policy.