Party choice in Europe: Social cleavages and the rise of populist parties

Abstract

Does the rise of populist parties of the right and left indicate the fading of the traditional left–right cleavage and the rise of a new transnational cleavage? Our analysis finds evidence of a continued left–right cleavage that divides European parties by religion and class. Our analysis also finds strong evidence for an additional transnational cleavage that pits the populists of right and left against the traditional parties of the “frozen” center. Right-Wing Populist parties attract young, working-class, and less educated voters, more often male, who are disconnected from religious institutions, perceive the national economy and their own economic status in a negative vein, and do not like immigrants. They distrust their own national government and the European Union. The Populist Left trends even younger, lower in status and education, more pessimistic about economic concerns, and just as hostile to political elites. The populists—left and right—may be divided over some aspects of modern culture, but they are united in their opposition to European elites.