To reveal the relationship between rough tooth surface microstructure characteristics and contact performance, contact analysis is carried out based on the measured surface topography of the tooth surface of ultrasonic grinding by utilizing the elastic-plastic contact mechanics and statistical correlation analysis theory. Simple correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis are adopted for the gear three-dimensional surface roughness parameters and the maximum Mises stress and maximum shear stress. Then, the method of stepwise regression analysis and path analysis is used to construct the best fitting linear model of 3D roughness parameters and the maximum Mises stress and maximum shear stress, and the parameters’ decision coefficient is obtained. The research shows: (1) the rank of comprehensive influence factors of the maximum Mises stress is as follows: arithmetical mean height (Sa), peak material portion (Smr1), maximum peak height (Sp), reduced peak height (Spk), and minimum curvature radius and height ratio (K), where Smr1, Spk, and K are negatively correlated with the maximum Mises stress; (2) the comprehensive influence variables of the maximum shear stress are in the order of Sa, Spk, and Vmp, among which Spk and Vmp are inversely related to the maximum shear stress.
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