Evaluating the Housing Market Effects of a Large Anchor Institution: The Case of the Obama Presidential Center

Abstract

This study examines the housing market impacts of the Obama Presidential Center (OPC) on Chicago's South Side during the pre-opening period (2013–2024). Using spatial hedonic difference-in-differences models, we analyze property sale prices across distance buffers surrounding Jackson Park to assess whether proximity to this high-profile anchor institution generated anticipatory price effects. Despite conditions typically associated with speculative appreciation, including extensive media coverage, documented investor activity, and expectations of neighborhood transformation, we find no statistically significant price increases in areas closest to the OPC (within 0–1.5 miles). Instead, significant appreciation emerges only at 1.5–2 miles from the site, where prices rose approximately 12 percent above market trends in 2023–2024. This counterintuitive spatial pattern challenges conventional proximity-based models of anchor institution effects. We explore potential explanations, including construction-related disruption, uneven policy coverage, forward-looking investor behavior, and pandemic-era market dynamics. Overall, the findings demonstrate that anticipatory price effects are conditional on local context rather than automatic responses to major developments.