Racial Change,Racial Threat,and Minority Representation in Cities

Abstract

As the racial complexion of cities has shifted over the last 20 years, the struggles for political power have become more complex. Some cities, like Ferguson, Missouri, have seen their Black population grow substantially, but their descriptive representation stall. Others, like Compton, California, have moved from predominantly Black to predominantly Latino, and are asking themselves if the two racial minorities can govern together. Building upon theories of racial threat, in this project, I examine explicitly the independent effects of racial change on the likelihood of Black and Latino representation across cities in the United States between 1981 and 2011, and the likelihood of minority candidate emergence in California between 1995 and 2010. Using three demographic profiles as a frame—majority White, majority–minority, and multiracial cities—the results suggest the intersections between racial context and shifting political and racial landscapes have important consequences of minority political power for the future.