Climate Politics in the Primaries: How Primary Voters Shape Electoral Incentives and Climate Policy

Abstract

We examine primary voters’ perceptions of climate change and their preferences for environmental policy, and how these differ from non-primary voters and shape electoral incentives. Drawing on survey data from several waves of the American National Election Study, we document a partisan asymmetry in how primary voters think about climate change. We show that Republican primary voters have been more likely to endorse climate denial or delay views across several election cycles, compared to those Republicans who do not take part in political primaries. Among Democratic primary voters, we find little difference between primary voters and non-voters in earlier elections but show both growing concern and policy support among primary voters in 2016 and thereafter. Our results provide insights into the electoral incentives that politicians face in primary elections and help explain the short-lived trajectories of recent climate policies that have been retrenched by Republican legislators whose electoral incentives lead them to oppose or veto climate policies that may still bring their own constituents benefits.