Gender,Party,and Primary Turnout

Abstract

A substantial literature documents persistent gender gaps in voter turnout in general elections, yet far less is known about whether these disparities extend to low-salience contests such as congressional primaries. This omission is consequential, as primary elections increasingly determine representation in Congress due to partisan gerrymandering and declining general election competitiveness. This study investigates whether a gender gap exists in congressional primary turnout and whether it varies by party. Using individual-level administrative voter-file data from all fifty states, we analyze turnout in the 2018 and 2022 congressional primaries, leveraging panel models that account for prior voting behavior. The data include five million observations and avoid common biases associated with survey-based turnout measures. We find a small but significant overall gender gap in congressional primary turnout, with women more likely to participate than men, consistent with research findings that women are stronger partisans. However, there is substantial partisan asymmetry: Republican women are significantly more likely than Republican men to vote in primaries, whereas Democratic women are equally or less likely to vote in primaries, depending on the electoral context. These findings suggest that gender gaps in primary participation are driven by women’s partisan attachment and party-specific mobilization dynamics, with implications for representation.